Reports of gasoline shortages and queues at petrol stations have emerged from parts of the southern and central regions of the European part of Russia, including Moscow and its surrounding areas, as well as some southern districts of Siberia and the Far East.
During a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on August 14, it was noted that the situation in the fuel market remains tense, although major oil companies are taking all necessary measures to increase supplies to the most vulnerable regions of the Russian Federation. It was also emphasized that agricultural enterprises are adequately supplied with fuel, and the harvest campaign is proceeding as planned.
At the conclusion of the meeting, Novak instructed relevant agencies and oil-producing companies to take additional measures to ensure fuel supplies to regions currently experiencing a tense situation. Furthermore, he directed oversight on fuel prices for agricultural producers as well as petrol station prices.Agricultural machinery primarily operates on diesel fuel (DF). Its supply to the market normalized in the second half of July, and no interruptions are currently recorded. This is due to the fact that this type of fuel has historically been produced in greater quantities in Russia compared to gasoline. According to the latest official data, in 2024, gasoline production reached 41.1 million tons, whereas diesel stood at 81.6 million tons. This can be attributed to the previous large-scale export of diesel (nearly half of production) to Europe, while gasoline exports were minimal (10-15% of total production).
Therefore, the shutdown of oil refineries (ORs) due to damage sustained from drone strikes critically impacted the supply of gasoline. It is no coincidence that its export has been completely banned since April, and nearly all produced volumes are directed to the domestic market (with the exception of small batches sent under intergovernmental agreements). However, this is clearly insufficient. Although it is possible that the issue is not solely about a physical shortage.
One of the key factors affecting the reliability of fuel supplies remains logistics. Due to unscheduled maintenance of ORs, many petrol stations were forced to rapidly change suppliers, leading to disruptions and delays in shipments. The infrastructure is not elastic – it cannot load, transport, and unload more than what the railway's (RD) capacity allows.
Furthermore, as noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, in a conversation with "RG", even before the OR shutdowns for unscheduled repairs, the ban on gasoline exports effectively became permanent.
This means that even prior to the current year, the balance of supply and demand for gasoline in the domestic market was close to zero. A gradual, yet ongoing update of the vehicle fleet could lead to increased demand for AI-95 gasoline after 2022, while sanctions on equipment supplies for Russian ORs inhibited the expansion of refining capacities.
According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, it is not accurate to speak of a nationwide fuel crisis; rather, it concerns localized shortages in specific regions. The primary reason is planned and unscheduled maintenance at Russian ORs. Government measures are effective, but they cannot fully eliminate the root cause of the fuel shortage – a decrease in production.
To prevent a fuel deficit, the government permitted imports starting in July. Belarus became the main supplier. According to Reuters, in July, Russia received 212,000 tons of gasoline and 162,000 tons of DF from Belarus. However, the capacities of two Belarusian ORs are also not limitless. Given the internal consumption, exporting over 200,000 tons of gasoline per month to Russia is close to their maximum capabilities. Additionally, logistics is again a factor – fuel is delivered to Russia by rail. Importing gasoline by sea is very costly and time-consuming. The delivery of the first batch of gasoline from India to Russia took 48 days.
Tereshkin believes that the market is unlikely to see record growth rates in prices similar to those in June during September and October, as supply chain participants gradually adapt to the risks of shortages. However, he maintains that absolute price levels will still exceed pre-crisis levels.
Regarding fuel availability at petrol stations, by the end of August, additional supplies of fuel below Euro-5 standards, which have been permitted for trading since August 13, are expected to reach retail. These shipments should alleviate market tensions. However, Frolov emphasizes that even the production of gasoline with reduced environmental standards cannot fully compensate for the missing volumes and resolve the logistical challenges of delivering fuel to specific areas.
At the same time, Tereshkin notes that, unfortunately, it is still impossible to rule out the possibility of new technological downtimes at ORs. In addition to capacity attrition due to unforeseen circumstances, this also includes scheduled repairs which will impact fuel availability.
According to Dmitry Gusev, vice-chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, there is a general understanding that the market needs to be restructured. The transition to direct contracts between suppliers and buyers has already begun, along with a reduction in the number of intermediaries – traders. The situation should normalize when the parameters of how the fuel market should operate in our country become fully clear. Experts anticipate this will likely happen by October.
From Frolov's perspective, the situation can only be fully stabilized with the resumption of OR capacities sufficient to meet current demand.
Source: RG.RU
