The heating season in Europe has just begun, yet storage reserves are depleting at a record pace. The current levels are typically characteristic of late December. What is driving Europeans to expend their gas reserves so quickly this winter, and what are the potential risks?
European countries have been withdrawing gas from their underground storage facilities (UGS) at unprecedented rates. From November 15 to November 30, they extracted 7.7 billion cubic meters, surpassing the data for the same period in November 2024 by 5%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). In the first half of the month, withdrawals were lower.
Withdrawals in November are ahead of the typical gas consumption rate by about a month. Historically, this level of storage reserves in the EU would have been reached by the end of December (based on a five-year average), reports TASS.
"The real cold weather has not yet arrived in Europe. Several months of winter weather lie ahead. From a technological standpoint, the decreased reserves in storage lower their efficiency. In the event of severe or prolonged cold spells, insufficient gas reserves in UGS could jeopardize reliable gas supply to European consumers," experts from Gazprom state.
There are several reasons why Europeans are compelled to withdraw more gas from storage at the beginning of this heating season compared to 2024.
"Firstly, many European companies are currently trying to sell gas from underground storage because they fear that prices may drop further. While they had previously purchased and injected this gas at higher prices, they are now apprehensive about incurring even greater losses,"
- says an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNES), Igor Yushkov. By December 2, gas exchange prices in Europe had fallen to their lowest in a year and a half, reaching $335 per thousand cubic meters.
Secondly, the EU is receiving less pipeline gas than last year, with supplies of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine reduced by 15-16 billion cubic meters. "Therefore, even with the previous volumes of LNG, Europeans would still need to extract more gas from underground storage. The gas volumes that were previously received daily through transit from Russia via Ukraine are now being compensated by gas from storage," the FNES expert explains.
Furthermore, the EU has lost over 1 million tons of LNG per year that were previously delivered to the European market from two Russian projects – "Cryogas Vysotsk" and "Gazprom LNG Portovaya." Supplies have now halted due to US sanctions.
The third factor is that Europeans must now "supply" gas to Ukraine. "Previously, Ukraine purchased virtual reverse flow gas, which was essentially transit Russian gas, but now it is physically sourcing blue fuel from Europeans. It appears that Ukraine's own production has diminished due to Russian strikes, forcing it to increasingly purchase from Europe. Ukraine has firmly placed itself in a position of dependence on European countries, which must rely on imports and their own storages to ensure not only their market but now also that of Ukraine," says Igor Yushkov.
A fourth difference between this year and last is that gas consumption in Europe has seen a modest increase in 2025. "Gas consumption in the EU has begun to recover after the steep decline of 2022-2023 due to high prices. This recovery is attributed to gas prices not being excessively high, hovering around $400 per thousand cubic meters," Yushkov adds.
However, cold weather, according to the expert, is not currently the main reason for greater withdrawals from UGS than last year.
What are the dangers of this accelerated withdrawal of gas from underground storage? The risk is that by year-end, there may be critically low levels of gas remaining.
"The most extreme scenario is if a cold snap occurs at the end of the heating season. If temperatures plunge in February and March while storage levels are low, daily withdrawals will become increasingly challenging.
This would lead to a gas shortage, which would need to be covered solely through current imports. This means that Europe would have to compete with Asian markets for LNG volumes. Consequently, gas prices would rise, which would have a negative impact on the European economy," Yushkov explains.
Overall, there has been an increase in the share of LNG in the structure of gas imports into the European Union over the year. "The share of LNG in gas imports to the EU has risen from 37% to 45%. If the EU imported 297 million cubic meters of LNG daily in the first nine months of 2024, the equivalent figure for the same period in 2025 is projected at 376 million cubic meters," states Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market.
However, once the heating season begins, demand surges sharply—not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are attracting significant LNG volumes for themselves through competitive pricing.
The colder it gets in Asia and Europe, the more both regions will compete for limited LNG volumes, further driving up prices, concludes Yushkov.
Source: VZGLYAD
