The appeal of Russian diesel fuel in the global market is rising amidst the Hormuz crisis. Exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk amounted to 1.4 million tons during the period from March 1 to March 15, with 29 vessel calls, as reported by the Center for Price Indices (CPI), which was reviewed by RBC. This volume is already nearly comparable to the total shipments from the same port throughout February.
At the Primorsk port in the Leningrad region, as a result of an attack by Ukrainian drones, fuel storage tanks were damaged and a fire broke out, reported the region's governor, Alexander Drozdenko, on March 23. According to Reuters, the port halted the loading of oil and petroleum products.
Meanwhile, in February, the overall export of diesel fuel from Russian ports demonstrated a decline — totaling 2.3 million tons, which is approximately 30% lower than in January. Brazil was the main destination for shipments, with Russia exporting 680,000 tons of diesel fuel — a 4% decrease month-on-month. Exports to Turkey decreased by 28%, amounting to 400,000 tons, while exports to African countries fell by 46%, down to 531,000 tons. Shipments to other destinations decreased by 19%, reaching 453,000 tons.
Gasoline is still being exported from Russia to distant abroad, but the volumes are insignificant, two industry sources informed RBC. However, gasoline sales through the St. Petersburg Exchange in March dropped: at the beginning of the month, the daily total sales volume exceeded 50,000 tons, but on March 20 it fell to 34,000 tons.
Russia continues to supply petroleum products through intergovernmental agreements (mainly to EAEU countries and Mongolia), even during periods of bans on gasoline and diesel fuel exports.
In March, Mongolia's Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Bagzsuren’s Enkhtuul, stated that the country will cover its fuel needs entirely through imports from Russia, as China has banned the export of petroleum products due to the situation in the Hormuz Strait.
The Russian-Mongolian agreement reached in 2024 anticipates the supply of 1.8–1.9 million tons of petroleum products and 60,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually on mutually beneficial terms.
Will Export Growth Impact the Domestic Market?
Experts surveyed believe that the increase in export revenues for Russian oil companies will lead to an increase in refining margins and reduce pricing pressure in the domestic market.
In 2025, oil producers were deprived of high export revenues for various reasons, forcing them to "recoup" these losses through price increases in the domestic market, notes independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov. The net profit of Russian petroleum producers decreased by 16% last year, amounting to 2.26 trillion rubles. Additionally, oil companies received fewer budget payments through the fuel damping mechanism — 882 billion rubles vs. 1.8 trillion rubles in 2024. All of this led to a decrease in refining margins.
The 2025 Crisis
Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia reached historical highs in the summer and autumn of 2025. The retail price also rose significantly. Regional governors reported fuel shortages at local filling stations.
However, by mid-October, exchange quotes began to retreat from their record highs. As explained to journalists by Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, this occurred amid export restrictions and an increase in production after refineries resumed operations.
By the end of the year, the government allowed companies with production capacities exceeding 1 million tons of petroleum products per year to export diesel fuel abroad. At the end of January 2026, a similar lifting of the ban on gasoline exports was also enacted. This permit is valid until July 31.
"Now, Russian oil companies have received a gift in the form of rising prices for petroleum products globally, which will lead to increased refining margins," believes Rodionov. Therefore, the expert does not foresee any threats to the domestic market. Consequently, the government is unlikely to need to resort to export bans in the coming months, despite seasonal demand surges from agricultural producers.
According to the National Price Exchange Agency, buyers have shown heightened interest in summer-grade diesel fuel ahead of the peak consumption season, and the supply has been increasing since late February. This situation is typical for every year: in 2025, mid-March demand for summer diesel approached 53.3% of total sales.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally oversupplied, according to Sergei Tereshkin, general director of the Open Oil Market petroleum marketplace. Until 2022, the ratio of exports to the domestic market was 50-50, and afterward it shifted to 40-60 in favor of the domestic market in Russia, partly due to increased demand for heavy machinery. However, the surplus remains, and it makes sense to direct it to export markets, especially now, when reduced transit of raw materials through the Hormuz Strait has driven up global prices, he adds.
At the same time, diesel fuel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange surged by 20% since the beginning of the month, peaking at 67,774 rubles per ton by the end of Monday's trading, which matches the level of mid-September 2025. Prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline also rose by more than 12% during this same period, reaching 67,603 rubles and 71,398 rubles per ton respectively.
Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, believes that this increase will be mitigated by damping payments. If this does not help in price stabilization, the government will swiftly reintroduce the export ban. The analyst anticipates that such a situation could arise as early as April.
The essence of the fuel damping mechanism is that the government incentivizes oil companies to supply more gasoline and diesel to the domestic market rather than to export by providing subsidies to refiners. If selling fuel abroad is more profitable than selling domestically, authorities compensate oil companies for the difference through the damping mechanism, thus stabilizing price dynamics. However, if domestic fuel prices exceed certain thresholds, the damping payments are nullified.
Tereshkin believes that there is no need to impose export restrictions on diesel fuel. Due to the surplus, the rise in its price is more moderate than that of gasoline. According to Rosstat, as of March 16, the accumulated growth in retail diesel prices since the end of the previous year was 1.6%, while gasoline prices rose by 2.4% against an inflation rate of 2.6%.
From March 1 to March 23, 2026, gasoline sales at the St. Petersburg Exchange amounted to 691,210 tons, up 5.7% compared to March 2025 and 16.8% more than the February figures this year, as reported by the National Exchange Price Agency to RBC. The total volume of diesel sales in March reached 1.2 million tons, surpassing the figures for the same period last year by 11% and increasing by 5.1% compared to February 2026. Market participants indicate a noticeable increase in buyer interest towards petroleum products in the latter half of March. However, the key driver here appears to be seasonal factors: the start of spring fieldwork, heightened road transport activity, and scheduled refinery repairs, the agency added.
RBC has reached out to the Ministry of Energy's press service for comments.
Source: RBC
