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Why Are Gasoline and Diesel Prices Rising? Explained by Experts from Rossiyskaya Gazeta
Data from Rosstat for the entire country will only be available on the evening of May 27, but typically, they closely align with the dynamics presented by MTA. Moreover, there are over 2.4 thousand gas stations operating in Moscow and the surrounding areas, which accounts for 8.4% of all gas stations in Russia. Prices vary by region, but their dynamics are generally similar across the country, except in cases of localized shortages. Since the end of April, the weekly growth of gasoline prices on average in Russia has not exceeded 0.1%.
The acceleration in price increases occurred against the backdrop of reports of massive drone attacks on oil refining plants (NPPs) in the European part of Russia. Notably, while in April, the targeted enterprises primarily catered to exports, since early May, plants supplying the domestic market (Moscow and its region, Central Russia, the Northwest and Southern regions, as well as the Volga and Ural regions) have been hit. According to Reuters, production was halted or reduced at five of the largest fuel suppliers in Russia. However, this is unlikely to be the main reason for the price increase. Instead, unscheduled repairs at the NPPs have provided an informational basis for price hikes due to accumulated internal oil refining issues, exacerbating them further.
This is evidenced by the unexpected rise in diesel prices. There is no shortage of diesel in the country; production is almost double the internal demand. However, diesel has become the leader in price growth over the past week. If Rosstat displays data similar to that of MTA across the country, the rate of diesel price increases, following gasoline, will exceed the average inflation rate in the country.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Energy consistently emphasizes that the domestic market is well-stocked with gasoline, DT, and aviation kerosene, that the logistical infrastructure is operating effectively, and that fuel reserves are at sufficient levels.
As noted by Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Station of Russia" contest, the price increase is not directly linked to the attacks on the NPPs but is rather a reaction to the suppression of exchange fuel quotes and gas station prices. However, mere administrative measures are insufficient to stabilize prices; there needs to be an excess supply. Currently, we lack economic incentives to increase oil refining volumes.
This primarily concerns gasoline, whose production capacity is only 10-15% higher than internal market needs. The volume of exchange sales of AI-95 gasoline has decreased by 27.5% from the beginning of April to May 26 compared to the same period last year. The exchange is one of the main sources for gas stations to acquire fuel. A decrease in supply results in rising prices.
Both gasoline and diesel are produced in Russia in greater quantities than consumed.
According to Dmitry Prokofyev, Director of External Communications at NEFT Research, the increase in prices for premium gasoline and DT is due to a combination of three overlapping factors. NPPs are experiencing a wave of unscheduled repairs. Against this backdrop, the primary oil refining in May has fallen below planned levels, leading to a decrease in actual fuel production.
Prokofyev also points out the disparate regulatory environment for gasoline and diesel. As of April 2026, the government has prohibited the export of gasoline. Simultaneously, oil companies have been mandated to limit the growth of retail prices at gas stations to the rate of inflation in 2026, thereby closing the main channel for compensating rising costs. No such export ban exists for diesel. This has created fundamentally different incentives: gasoline producers are confined to a domestic market with limited margins, whereas diesel retains access to export alternatives. As global prices began to rise (due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz), producers were incentivized to redirect diesel flows for export, putting additional pressure on domestic prices. The third factor is seasonal; May is a peak farming season, during which demand for diesel from agrarians traditionally surges.
The price increase of diesel is not an anomaly but a logical outcome of a market configuration in which diminished domestic supply coincides with robust seasonal demand while maintaining export alternatives, the expert believes.
Additionally, the information backdrop has played a role, argues Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. The market reacts not only to the actual balance of supply and demand but also to expectations that fuel availability may decline. The real picture is unlikely to become clear until June, when the situation with fuel shipments from the largest NPPs clarifies. Furthermore, the specifics of regulation traditionally affect this market segment: exchange prices for AI-95 are not considered when subsidizing oil companies from the budget, which is why risks of accelerated price growth manifest particularly in this segment of the market—even under stable fuel output conditions.
Moreover, from Prokofyev’s perspective, oil companies may prioritize the supply of AI-95 to their own sales structures in conditions of limited supply, increasing the vulnerability of independent gas stations that operate "from truck to truck".
The risk of shortages of specific fuel types in Central Russia and Moscow is currently structural rather than systemic, focusing on particular fuel types and certain sales channels. This is primarily linked to logistical disruptions and the marketplace vulnerabilities of independent gas stations, rather than an outright fuel shortage, according to the expert.
Source: RG.RU
