Crypto News: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 – Market Poised for Fed Rate Decision
The cryptocurrency market enters Wednesday, 29 July 2026, in a state of maximum concentration: the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today, which traders are calling the most unpredictable in years. Bitcoin dipped below $64,000 ahead of the announcement, altcoins lost between 3% and 9%, and the total crypto market capitalisation contracted to $2.17–2.2 trillion. Crypto news today is driven by one factor – US monetary policy – and investors worldwide are reducing risk as they await the regulator's verdict.
Key Takeaways for Wednesday Morning: Crucial Crypto Market Events
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,300–63,700 after a 2.5–3% daily decline; the four-week consecutive rally has been paused.
- Ethereum corrected to $1,870–1,890, giving back some of the early-week gains when the asset rose over 4%.
- The two-day FOMC meeting concludes today: the futures market prices in roughly a 36% probability of a rate hike, up from 26% a week ago.
- Over 118,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, totalling approximately $438 million – the derivatives market has sharply reduced leverage.
- The Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Fear” zone, reflecting investor caution.
Bitcoin: Consolidation Below $64,000 Ahead of the Fed Verdict
The leading cryptocurrency closed Monday around $64,800, but selling pressure intensified on Tuesday, pushing Bitcoin down to $63,300–63,400. Technical analysts note that the weekend rally predictably reversed after failing to hold above $65,800, while liquidity above local highs remains a target for any future upward move.
The broader context is crucial: BTC still trades about 48% below its all-time high of roughly $126,000, recorded in October 2025. Bitcoin dominance is holding near 58% – capital is not flowing into riskier assets, a typical pattern during periods of uncertainty.
Fed Meeting: Why the 29 July Decision is Critical for Crypto
The FOMC meeting results will be announced today, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference. Uniquely, there is no market consensus: the base case remains a rate hold, but the probability of a hike has risen from 26% to almost 36% over the past week.
Possible Scenarios for the Crypto Market
- Rate hold with dovish rhetoric – the most favourable scenario: inflows to exchange-traded funds could return, and Bitcoin might attempt to hold above $65,000.
- Rate hold with hawkish rhetoric – a neutral-to-negative scenario, with continued sideways movement and heightened volatility.
- Rate hike – a stress scenario: in June, the Fed's hawkish forecast shift crashed Bitcoin by 5.6% in a single day; a repeat hawkish surprise could trigger a deeper correction.
Historically, when a rate hold is expected, the market reacts less to the decision itself and more to the tone of the accompanying statements – the regulator's wording will set the direction for the remainder of the summer.
Ethereum: Correction After Outperformance
Ethereum started the week stronger than the broader market, gaining over 4% and rising to $1,960, but it corrected to $1,870–1,890 on Tuesday. Corporate buyers are providing support: major treasury firms continue to increase their ETH positions, demonstrating confidence in the second-largest cryptocurrency's long-term prospects. However, weak spot volume is concerning: average daily turnover in July almost halved compared to June, making any rally vulnerable without confirmation from broad demand.
Flows into Crypto ETFs: Mixed Signals
Exchange-traded funds – a key indicator of institutional demand – showed a mixed picture at the start of the week:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $11.6 million, though earlier last week outflows reached $240 million in a single day;
- Ethereum-based funds attracted roughly $9.2 million – institutions are cautiously buying ETH on the dip;
- XRP funds broke their quiet streak: inflows were recorded for the first time in several weeks, with cumulative inflows into this segment reaching $1.5 billion.
Stablecoin market capitalisation is holding steady near $300 billion – a significant amount of "dry powder" remains on the sidelines, waiting for clarity from the Fed.
Altcoins: XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid Under Pressure
The altcoin segment declined at a faster pace on Tuesday. XRP fell to around $1.05, losing nearly 5% in 24 hours, despite positive fund flows. Solana is trading near $73 after a 4.7% decline – the market awaits the major Alpenglow consensus upgrade, which could be a fundamental driver for the network. Hyperliquid was the day's underperformer among major assets, losing about 9%. Dogecoin is holding near $0.07 with a bearish technical picture.
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap: Current Levels
- Bitcoin (BTC) – around $63,400; market cap approximately $1.27–1.3 trillion, dominance ~58%.
- Ethereum (ETH) – around $1,880; market cap approximately $230 billion.
- Tether (USDT) – $1.00; the largest stablecoin.
- BNB – around $567; the asset is declining moderately (-1.1%), acting as a relative safe haven in portfolios.
- XRP – around $1.05; in focus – the first weekly inflows to dedicated ETFs.
- USD Coin (USDC) – $1.00; the second systemic stablecoin.
- Solana (SOL) – around $73; the yearly high of $253 remains a distant target.
- TRON (TRX) – around $0.33; the network retains leadership in stablecoin settlements.
- Dogecoin (DOGE) – around $0.07; the largest meme coin holds its place in the top ten.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) – around $54; the most volatile asset in the top ten this week.
Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: Other Market Drivers
Beyond the Fed, several external factors are impacting crypto prices. De-escalation between the US and Iran and a halt to mutual strikes lowered oil prices and eased inflation fears, supporting risk appetite early in the week. At the same time, a sell-off in technology and AI stocks, including pressure on Nvidia shares, is testing the crypto market's resilience: Bitcoin has so far shown relative stability amid falling equity indices.
The industry backdrop remains challenging: the market is absorbing a ~$900 million FTX creditor distribution, while the announced closure of two exchanges – BitMEX and BitMart – highlights ongoing industry consolidation. In Washington, the Senate has delayed the digital assets regulatory bill, keeping regulatory uncertainty in place for the US market.
Outlook: What Investors Should Watch on 29 July
Wednesday promises to be the most volatile day of the week. Investors should focus on three key pointers:
- The Fed's decision and rhetoric – the main catalyst: a dovish tone opens the door to $65,000–66,000 for Bitcoin; a hawkish surprise risks testing support at $60,000–62,000;
- Spot ETF flows – renewed inflows would confirm a return of institutional demand;
- Derivatives dynamics – after $438 million in liquidations, reduced leverage lowers the risk of cascading sell-offs, but also limits upward momentum.
The options market prices in a relatively calm reaction to the regulator's decision, but history shows that "predictable" Fed meetings have often delivered the sharpest moves in crypto. For long-term investors, the current consolidation near $63,000–65,000 represents a accumulation phase ahead of the new trend for the second half of 2026.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are a highly volatile asset class: prices change minute by minute; verify current data before making decisions.
