Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, December 10, 2025: Fed Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, Inflation in Russia

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for December 10, 2025. Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada's Decision, Inflation Data from China, Russia, and Brazil; Speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England and the President of the ECB; EIA Oil Inventories; and Corporate Results from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday presents a busy agenda for investors: in Asia, the key release will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from China, which is expected to confirm weak price pressures and likely maintain the accommodative policy of the People's Bank of China; in the Middle East, attention will be drawn to the first Russian-Emirati business forum in Dubai, highlighting the strengthening of bilateral partnership; in Europe, market participants will be watching the speeches of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde for new monetary policy signals. The main event of the day will be the US Federal Reserve meeting – its outcomes will set the tone for the dynamics of stock indices and currencies.

Complementing the picture will be the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the release of November inflation data for Brazil (followed by the late meeting of Brazil's Central Bank), and statistics from the US Department of Energy on oil inventories. On the corporate front, a series of earnings reports will be released: in the US, tech leaders (Oracle, Adobe, etc.) and several retail and industrial companies will announce their financial results; in Europe, the releases from tourism holding TUI and retailer Metro are noteworthy; in Asia, chipmakers (e.g., TSMC) will provide trading updates; and in Russia, Aeroflot will report for the first nine months. It is crucial for investors to evaluate these events collectively: central bank signals ↔ bond yields ↔ currency rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in the markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. All day – UAE/Russia: First Russian-Emirati Business Forum (Dubai).
2. 04:30 – China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
3. 13:45 – UK: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
4. 13:55 – Eurozone: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
5. 15:00 – Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
6. 17:45 – Canada: Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.
7. 18:30 – USA: EIA Oil Inventories (weekly statistics).
8. 18:30 – Canada: Bank of Canada's press conference post-meeting.
9. 19:00 – Russia: Inflation level (CPI, preliminary data for November, y/y).
10. 22:00 – USA: Federal budget for November.
11. 22:00 – USA: FOMC meeting (final interest rate decision by the Fed).
12. 22:30 – USA: Press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
13. 00:30 (Thu) – Brazil: Central Bank's interest rate decision.

Geopolitics: Russian-Emirati Business Forum

• Dubai hosts the first Russian-Emirati Business Forum, aimed at strengthening economic partnership between Russia and the UAE. The event includes over 200 delegates – representatives from major companies, investment funds, technology startups, and logistics operators from both countries. The forum takes place against the backdrop of increasing trade turnover and investments between Russia and the Emirates and may mark the signing of new agreements in industry, energy, transport, and other sectors.

China: CPI Index and PBC Policy

• Inflation in China is expected to remain near 0% y/y in November, reflecting weak consumer demand and deflationary pressures. The lack of price growth, coupled with a recent decline in producer prices (PPI), strengthens expectations that the People's Bank of China will maintain an accommodative monetary policy to support the economy. Any signs of inflation recovery could lessen the need for new stimulus measures, but current indicators suggest the necessity of maintaining a soft approach (low rates, liquidity injection) to boost domestic demand.

Europe: Signals from the Bank of England and ECB

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver speeches that investors will closely analyze for future rate plans. In the UK, inflation still exceeds the target level; however, a slowing economy may force the BoE to adopt a wait-and-see approach, hinting at a possible rate cut in 2026. Lagarde, for her part, is likely to reaffirm the ECB's commitment to the 2% goal and a cautious stance: as growth weakens in the Eurozone, the regulator may signal a prolonged pause in rate hikes. Any hints at a change in tone (more "dovish" or "hawkish") could impact EUR and GBP rates, as well as European bond markets.

US and Canada: Federal Reserve Meeting and Bank of Canada Decision

• The Federal Reserve is holding its final FOMC meeting of the year. Markets broadly expect a 25 basis points cut in the Fed rate (to a range of ~5.00–5.25%) amid slowing inflation and signs of a weakening labor market. Investors will focus on the rhetoric of Fed Chair Jerome Powell: assessments of inflation risks and hints at the policy trajectory in 2026 are crucial. A softer tone (willingness for further policy easing) could weaken the dollar and support stock growth, while maintaining caution ("hawkish" tones regarding inflation) could provoke short-term volatility and rise in bond yields.
• The Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision: it is expected that the regulator will maintain the rate (current level around 2.25%) after a cycle of cuts throughout the year. Slowing economic growth and inflation approaching the target allow the Central Bank to pause its easing policy. In the accompanying statement, market participants are looking for signals regarding future plans – for example, the readiness to resume rate cuts in the event of a more significant economic downturn. The Canadian dollar and the bond market will respond to the tone of communication: a neutral message will solidify current expectations, while an unexpectedly "dovish" stance (hinting at future stimulus) could lead to further declines in yields and currency weakening.

Emerging Markets: Inflation in Russia and Brazil's Central Bank Decision

• In Russia, preliminary inflation data for November is expected to show a year-on-year price increase of about 6%, exceeding the Bank of Russia's target benchmark (4%). Despite some slowdown compared to autumn peaks, inflationary pressure remains substantial due to the weakening ruble and budget expenditures. November data are critical for understanding price dynamics at the end of the year: should inflation not decelerate, the Bank of Russia is likely to maintain a tough rhetoric and high rates at the upcoming meeting. For the ruble, persistently high inflation implies limited scope for rate cuts, which may compel the regulator to keep tight monetary conditions for longer.
• In Brazil, November CPI is expected to be below 5% y/y, continuing the trend of slowing price growth due to previous policy tightening. Against the backdrop of declining inflation, Brazil's Central Bank (Copom) is likely to cut the benchmark rate (current level around 9.25%) in a night meeting to support the economy. Markets have priced in an expected cut of around 0.50%, so key will be the regulator's comments on future steps. Continued easing in Brazil would support the local stock market and bonds, but may create some pressure on the real.

Oil Market: EIA Inventories

• The weekly EIA report on US commercial oil inventories will provide fresh insight into the balance of demand and supply in the energy market. In previous weeks, there has been a reduction in inventories against a backdrop of revived demand and supply constraints from OPEC+, which supported oil prices. Should the data once again show a significant withdrawal of inventories, oil quotes would receive an added boost (intensifying global inflation expectations). Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories could cool the oil market rally. Traders and investors in the commodities sector are closely monitoring this indicator before the year ends, during which fuel demand is subject to seasonal fluctuations.

Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Chewy (CHWY) – an American online pet products retailer, will release its earnings report before market open. Key focal points include revenue growth and customer base increase in Q3, as well as dynamics of average transaction size and e-commerce margin in a highly competitive environment. Previous results from Chewy showed a double-digit sales increase (~9% y/y) and improved profitability; the market will be keen to see this trend continue and hear management's forecast for the holiday season. Strong metrics could support the company's stocks and the online retail sector, while slowing revenue growth or lowered guidance could heighten investor caution.

Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Oracle (ORCL) – a leading provider of enterprise software and cloud services, will report its results for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year after the US market closes. Investors are particularly interested in the dynamics of Oracle's cloud business (OCI – Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) and software sales for enterprises. The company is banking on rising demand from AI projects and expanding its cloud portfolio. If the report confirms high growth rates in cloud services and profitability, shares of Oracle and other tech giants could gain momentum. Conversely, weak results or cautious guidance may prompt a correction, considering the recent rise in technology sector stocks.
• Adobe (ADBE) – a leader in the software market (Creative Cloud, marketing solutions) will present its results for Q4 of the 2025 fiscal year. Key metrics to watch include subscription revenue growth from cloud services (Creative Cloud, Document Cloud) and dynamics in the digital marketing segment. Against the backdrop of generative AI technology advancements, investors are also expecting comments on the integration of AI tools into Adobe products and the effects on customer acquisition. Strong revenue growth and optimistic guidance will reinforce confidence in Adobe’s business model, while slowing demand from corporate clients may raise concerns about the company's high valuations.
• Synopsys (SNPS) – a developer of chip design software, will report its financial results for 2025. The semiconductor sector is experiencing elevated demand for chips used in AI and automotive electronics, which supports Synopsys's order portfolio. Investors will be evaluating revenue and profitability growth, along with new deals with chip manufacturers. Robust performance from Synopsys will confirm that industry players are actively investing in R&D despite macroeconomic uncertainties, which is positive for the entire tech segment. Conversely, weak results could result in negative market reactions, given high expectations from the IT sector.
• Nordson (NDSN) – an industrial engineering company (dispensing and coating systems) will release its report for Q4 2025. Nordson's results will serve as a barometer for demand in the manufacturing industry: its equipment is utilized in the production of goods, packaging, and electronics. Analysts predict stable revenues or a slight decline amid slower global manufacturing; however, improved operational efficiency may support margins. Should earnings surpass projections due to cost reductions, it will confirm the business's resilience; weak sales, however, could indicate corporate clients’ caution in spending.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): Among key European companies reporting on December 10 are TUI (tourism holding) and Metro AG (retail/wholesale trade). While these releases are of interest, the overall sentiment on European markets will largely be influenced by external factors – signals from the US Federal Reserve, commodity price dynamics, and comments from the Bank of England and ECB. The absence of surprises in corporate results and macro data will support the stability of the Euro Stoxx 50 index, while negative factors may heighten volatility.
• Nikkei 225 (Asia): In Japan, financial results from major corporations on this day are limited (the main reporting season concluded earlier), so Asian investors are focusing on external news. However, trading updates from Taiwanese tech giants are noteworthy: TSMC and MediaTek will provide data for November, reflecting the state of global semiconductor demand. Strong TSMC figures (revenue growth due to demand for AI chips) will bolster positivity in Asian markets, while weak sales dynamics will indicate ongoing cyclical risks in the industry and may pressure the electronics sector.
• MOEX (Russia): Among Russian issuers on December 10, Aeroflot stands out, having presented its financial report according to IFRS for the first nine months of 2025. It is expected that the results of the airline reflect the recovery of passenger flows and changes in the exchange rate. If Aeroflot demonstrates confident growth in revenue and profit, this will improve sentiment towards the aviation sector and consumer stocks on the Moscow Exchange. Overall, however, activity on the Russian stock market may remain subdued, awaiting key external events of the day (primarily the Fed's decision), which dictate the global risk appetite of investors.

Daily Summary: Key Points for Investors to Focus On

• 1) Fed Decision: The outcomes of the meeting and comments from J. Powell are the key trigger of the day for all markets. The results of the FOMC will directly influence US Treasury yields, the dollar exchange rate, and stock evaluations (especially in the technology sector). Any deviation from expectations (for example, a more hawkish rhetoric or an unconventional rate decision) could provoke a sharp reaction in stock indices and currency rates.
• 2) Inflation Data: CPI releases from China, Russia, and Brazil will provide signals regarding global price trends. Low inflation in China confirms the absence of price pressures and influences sentiment in commodity markets, while numbers from Russia and Brazil will show how successfully these economies are curbing price growth. It is crucial for investors to correlate inflation trends in developed and emerging markets with the actions of respective central banks and interest rate prospects.
• 3) Oil Factor: Oil inventory statistics (EIA) are capable of temporarily shifting energy prices, which will affect shares of oil and gas companies and currencies of commodity-producing countries (CAD, RUB). Given the influence of oil prices on overall inflation, a sudden spike or drop in oil prices following EIA data could alter market expectations regarding future regulatory policies.
• 4) Corporate Reports: Financial results from giants like Oracle and Adobe, as well as other reporting firms, could locally change the dynamics within specific sectors. Strong reports from tech companies can shift market focus from macro statistics to corporate stories, supporting growth in the Nasdaq and related sectors. However, disappointments in reporting (earnings below forecasts or weak guidance) could trigger sell-offs in respective stocks even amid a positive external backdrop.
• 5) Daily Volatility: Given the high density of events on December 10, investors should prepare for potential sharp movements in advance. It is recommended to identify key levels for their positions, use limit orders for entry/exit, and, if necessary, consider hedging parts of their portfolios. This proactive approach to risk management will help navigate the day filled with news more confidently.