Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 10, 2025: Price Dynamics, Sanction Pressures, Commodity Market Trends, Fuel Production, Energy Policy, and Global Trends.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 10, 2025, attract investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. The confrontation between Russia and the West continues to develop under sanction pressures: there has been no direct easing of restrictions; on the contrary, G7 and EU countries are discussing new tightening measures against the Russian oil and gas sector at the beginning of 2026. The global oil market, meanwhile, maintains a fragile balance: Brent prices hover around the mid-$60 per barrel, reflecting a balance between supply growth and weakening demand. The European gas market enters winter with relative confidence—EU underground gas storage (UGS) is over 75% full at the beginning of December, providing a buffer and keeping prices at a moderate level. The global energy transition continues to accelerate: many regions are recording unprecedented levels of electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), while countries have yet to completely abandon traditional resources for energy system reliability. In Russia, after an autumn price surge, authorities are continuing to implement measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, power, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Cautious Production Management Amid Overproduction Risks
Global oil prices remain relatively stable influenced by several fundamental factors. Brent crude is trading around $62-$64 per barrel, while WTI prices are in the $58-$60 range. Current prices are about 10% lower than the same period last year, reflecting a gradual market correction following price peaks in 2022-2023. Several key trends are impacting price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Output Growth: The oil alliance gradually increased market supply throughout 2025. In December, production quotas for key participants were raised by another 137,000 barrels per day (as in the previous two months), but a pause in production growth for the first quarter of 2026 was decided to prevent a supply surplus. From April to November, the total OPEC+ quota grew by approximately 2.9 million bpd, resulting in an increase in global oil and petroleum product reserves.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing at more moderate rates. According to revised estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand growth for 2025 is projected to be around 0.7 million bpd (in comparison, it exceeded 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have become more restrained— the cartel anticipates demand growth of approximately 1.1-1.3 million bpd for 2025. Contributing factors include a slowing global economy and the effects of high prices from previous years encouraging energy conservation. Additionally, slowing industrial growth in China has limited the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Sanctions and Uncertainty: Sanction pressures create contradictory effects on the market. On one hand, new western sanctions—such as the US and UK sanctions against major Russian oil companies—complicate production growth in Russia, sustaining the risk of shortages of certain grades of crude. Conversely, Russian supplies continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices, softening the overall impact of sanctions on global supply. Additionally, a degree of optimism among investors has been instilled by signals of progress in US trade negotiations with major partners, improving sentiment in the oil market.
Altogether, these factors ensure a near-surplus state of the market: oil supply slightly exceeds demand, keeping prices from a new rally. Exchange quotations remain significantly below the highs of previous years. Several analysts believe that if current trends continue, the average Brent price in 2026 could drop to the range of $50-$55 per barrel.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Moderate Prices
In the gas market, the primary focus remains on Europe. EU countries entered the winter season with historically high gas reserves: by early November, European UGS was nearly 98% full, and during the first decade of December, stock levels are holding at a comfortable ~75%. This is significantly above the average levels of previous years and provides a reliable buffer in case of cold weather. Exchange prices for gas remain relatively low: January futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27-28/MWh (approximately $340 per thousand cubic meters), reflecting a balance between supply and demand. The ongoing influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is enhancing market stability: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports into Europe may set a new record, compensating for decreases in pipeline gas deliveries. A potential risk factor remains the possibility of colder weather or increased competition for LNG from Asia; however, the current situation is favorable for consumers. Moderate gas prices are helping lower costs for the industrial and energy sectors in Europe at the beginning of winter.
International Politics: Continued Sanctions without Easing and New Measures Coming
Despite certain diplomatic contacts, there has been no significant easing of sanctions policies in the oil and gas sector. On the contrary, Western countries are signaling a willingness to tighten restrictions. In December, the G7 countries and the European Union held discussions about a new sanctions package against Moscow. Sources indicate that the introduction of a complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil from 2026 is being discussed, which could replace the current price cap of $60 per barrel. The aim of such measures is to further reduce Russia's export revenues. Additionally, American authorities also imposed additional sanctions on Russian oil giants at the end of autumn, complicating their access to technologies and financing. As a result, uncertainty for the industry remains: on one hand, no serious supply disruptions have yet occurred due to the restructuring of logistics chains; on the other, the prospect of new restrictions is leading market participants to exercise caution.
One positive aspect is the retention of dialogue channels. Contacts between relevant departments in Russia and several Asian countries continue, allowing energy flows to be redirected and softening the blow of sanctions. Furthermore, on a global scale, there is a certain improvement in trade relations: the easing of tensions between major economies (for example, the gradual resolution of trade disputes between the US and China) supports investor confidence and demand for energy resources. In the coming months, market attention will be focused on the development of the sanctions situation: the implementation of new restrictions or, conversely, a pause in sanction pressures could significantly impact sentiment and long-term strategies of energy companies.
Asia: Major Consumers Balance Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing an ongoing sanctions backdrop, New Delhi is striving to secure its energy balance. A sharp refusal to import Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country; therefore, Indian authorities continue to purchase Russian energy resources, seeking favorable terms. Russian companies are offering Indian refineries significant discounts to Brent prices (estimated at around $4-$6 per barrel of Urals), allowing India to increase imports of crude oil and petroleum products to meet domestic demand. Concurrently, India is focusing on developing its resource base: as part of the national deepwater exploration program, state-owned company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in the Andaman Sea, and early results are seen as encouraging. Success in discovering new oil and gas reserves in the future will reduce the country's dependence on external supplies.
- China: As the largest economy in Asia, China continues to adhere to a multi-vector strategy. On one hand, China remains the leading buyer of Russian oil and gas, taking advantage of the situation to replenish reserves at acceptable prices. In 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas (an increase of 1.8% and 6.2% year-on-year respectively), and in 2025, import volumes remained high with slight increases. On the other hand, Beijing is ramping up domestic production: from January to October 2025, China produced approximately 200 million tons of oil (+1.2% year-on-year) and 320 billion cubic meters of gas (+5.8% year-on-year). Although the share of domestic production is growing, the country remains dependent on imports for about 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. To improve energy security, China is investing in the development of fields, enhanced oil recovery technologies, and storage infrastructure. Thus, India and China—key players in the Asian region—continue to play a dual role in the FEC markets, combining active energy resource imports with measures to increase domestic production.
Energy Transition: Records in RES and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to low-carbon energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries have recorded historic levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar and wind power plants are reaching new generation peaks. In the European Union, by the end of the year, the combined share of solar and wind generation for the first time exceeded power generation from coal and gas plants, continuing the trend of recent years towards displacing fossil fuels. In the United States, the share of renewables in total generation consistently exceeds 30%, and wind and solar generation in the year outpaced electricity production from coal stations for the first time. China, the leading country in RES, introduced dozens of new gigawatts of capacity—over 100 GW of solar panels and wind turbines were installed in 2025, once again setting national records. According to the IEA, total global investments in the energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this funding directed towards RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, ensuring the stability of energy systems continues to require the participation of traditional types of generation. The increasing share of RES poses challenges for the energy sector: during hours when solar or wind generation is reduced, backup capacity is needed. In many countries during peak demand periods and adverse weather conditions, gas and even coal power plants are brought back online. For example, some European countries temporarily increased coal power generation during calm weather last winter, despite the environmental costs. Governments and companies are accelerating the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydroelectric stations) and smart grids to enhance flexibility and reliability in energy supply. Experts predict that by the end of the decade, renewable sources could take first place in global electricity generation, but during the transition period, the need for backup from gas and other traditional stations will persist. Thus, the energy transition is progressing confidently, although the balance between “green” technologies and traditional resources remains critically important for the industry's stability.
Coal: Market Stabilization Amid Sustained Demand
The global coal market in 2025 demonstrates relative stability amidst still high demand. Despite the rapid development of renewable energy, coal consumption remains significant, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China is maintaining coal combustion at close to record levels—Chinese generation consumes over 4 billion tons of coal annually, and national production (about 4.4 billion tons per year) barely meets domestic needs. India, with substantial reserves, is also actively utilizing coal: over 70% of the country's electricity is generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption continues to rise alongside economic growth. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing projects for new coal plants to meet rising electricity demand.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped keep prices in a moderate range after the extreme spikes of 2022. In 2025, thermal coal prices fluctuate around $100-$120 per ton, reflecting a balance between consumer and producer interests. Buyers are obtaining fuel at relatively acceptable prices, while mining companies enjoy stable sales with sufficient profit. Many nations are announcing long-term plans to reduce coal usage for climate reasons, but in the next 5-10 years, it will remain a crucial energy source for billions of people, especially in Asia. Thus, the coal industry is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and despite the climate agenda, coal remains one of the key pillars of global energy.
Russian Oil Products Market: Results of Price Control Measures
In the domestic fuel market of Russia, intermediate results of emergency measures are being assessed by the end of the year. In autumn 2025, after a spike in wholesale gasoline prices to record levels, the government undertook a series of steps to normalize the situation:
- Export Limitations: The complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel, introduced in September, was extended until early October and then gradually relaxed for large oil refineries. As the market balance improved, the largest oil refining plants were permitted to resume some export supplies, while limitations remained in force for independent traders and smaller plants.
- Resource Distribution Control: The cause of the supply deficit was unscheduled halts at several oil refineries (accidents and drone attacks disrupted operations at major plants, reducing fuel output). Authorities intensified oversight of petroleum product distribution in the domestic market—producers are instructed to prioritize domestic consumer needs, and practices of exchange reselling among wholesalers that drove prices up were curtailed. The Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Exchange are jointly developing a transition to long-term direct contracts between refineries and sales companies to eliminate intermediaries from the supply chain.
- Subsidies and Dampeners: The state continued to provide financial support to the industry. The mechanism of reverse excise tax on oil (the so-called "dampener") and direct subsidies to oil refiners partially compensated them for lost revenues from domestic fuel sales, encouraging them to direct a larger volume of petroleum products to the domestic market.
The package of measures has successfully avoided acute fuel shortages—gas stations across the country are supplied with gasoline and diesel. However, it has not been possible to completely curb price increases: according to Rosstat, retail prices for gasoline in Russia increased by approximately 12% since the beginning of the year by early December, whereas overall inflation was around 5%. Thus, fuel prices rose twice as fast as the overall consumer basket, indicating continued market pressure. Authorities declare their intention to keep the situation under control: if necessary, export limitations may be tightened again, and support for the industry is planned to be extended. Already in December, the relevant task force led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is discussing additional measures—from adjusting the dampener to replenishing fuel reserves—to prevent a recurrence of price spikes. The government aims to ensure stable supplies of petroleum products to the domestic market while keeping prices for end consumers within acceptable limits, minimizing risks to the economy and social sector.
