Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Sunday, February 1, 2026 | OPEC+ and Russia-Ukraine-USA Negotiations

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, February 1, 2026: Russia-Ukraine-US Negotiations, OPEC+ Meeting, Month Start with PMI, and Corporate Reports from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

The first Sunday of February 2026 sets the tone for the new week with a combination of geopolitical and commodity drivers. On the global front, focus is on negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the United States – a potential breakthrough in this area could influence investor sentiment worldwide. At the same time, OPEC+ countries are gathering for a meeting to determine oil policy against the backdrop of oil prices reaching several-month highs. The macroeconomic agenda is relatively calm: there are few data releases today, but at the start of the new week, markets will receive important indicators – the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing and the ISM index for the US. On the corporate side, the quarterly reporting season continues: investors are anticipating results from major companies (both in the US, such as Disney, and globally) and assessing their impact on stock markets. For the Russian market, external factors remain key – the dynamics of oil prices following the OPEC+ decision, the ruble exchange rate, and the geopolitical situation, as there are minimal significant events today. Investors from the CIS countries should consider this global picture while preparing for the opening of markets on Monday.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

Throughout the day – Abu Dhabi, UAE: trilateral meeting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the US regarding the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict (continuation of negotiations, discussion of ceasefire terms and territorial issues).
Throughout the day – Vienna, Austria: meeting of OPEC ministers and allies within the OPEC+ agreement (monitoring committee discusses compliance with production quotas and prospects for oil policy in the coming months).
04:00 (Mon) – China: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing for January. A neutral level around 50 is expected, indicating stabilization in the sector after fluctuations in recent months.
18:00 (Mon) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI for January. The first major indicator of US economic activity in 2026, reflecting the state of industry and new orders in the manufacturing sector.

Geopolitics: Ukraine Negotiations in Abu Dhabi

Continuation of Peace Dialogue. The second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US regarding conflict resolution is taking place in Abu Dhabi. The first round was held here on January 23-24 and laid the groundwork for further discussions. The central theme of the meeting is territorial disputes: the parties are trying to find a compromise regarding control over contested regions. Participants evaluate previous contacts as constructive: according to the media, delegations were able to discuss potential ceasefire parameters and monitoring mechanisms substantively, which inspires cautious optimism.
Positions of the Parties and Prospects. The negotiations are being mediated by the US; however, the current meeting is likely to be predominantly bilateral between representatives from Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv continues to publicly rule out territorial concessions: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he is not ready for compromises that violate Ukraine's territorial integrity. Moscow, in turn, insists on its "red lines," including the status of Donbas and Crimea within Russia. Nevertheless, the fact that territorial issues are being brought to the forefront indicates that several other topics (such as ceasefire regimes, humanitarian issues, the situation around ZAPs) have either already been discussed or postponed. American intermediaries express hope that this round may bring the parties closer to preliminary agreements. According to sources, progress has been made on the details of a potential agreement, and there is a chance to establish some framework document that the US will be ready to support separately with each party.
Markets are Watching the Outcome. Investors perceive these negotiations through the lens of global risk and uncertainty premiums. Any signs of a breakthrough – for instance, an agreement on a long-term ceasefire or a roadmap to a peace agreement – could alleviate geopolitical tensions. This, in turn, could bolster risk appetite in global equity markets: shares of European companies and currencies from emerging markets (including the ruble) would gain support from reduced war premiums, while prices for commodities (oil, gas, wheat), where military risk is partially priced in, may adjust downward. Conversely, if the negotiations hit a deadlock or are derailed, markets might respond with increased demand for safe-haven assets – gold, the US dollar, government bonds – and heightened volatility at the start of the week, particularly in sectors sensitive to frontline news (oil, the defense sector, the European markets).

OPEC+: Meeting on Oil Policy

Expectations of Maintaining Quotas. OPEC+ countries are holding a scheduled meeting where current oil production restrictions are expected to be extended unchanged at least through the first quarter of 2026. The alliance previously agreed to suspend production increases in February-March, and five delegates in OPEC+ told Reuters that the current meeting will likely make no adjustments to this policy. Key participants – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others – have signaled their readiness to adhere to previously agreed production levels, aiming to maintain market balance and oil prices at comfortable levels.
Oil Prices and Context. Oil quotes approached the meeting at the highest levels since the summer: Brent is trading in a range of about $70–75 per barrel after rising in January. The price surge has been supported by a combination of factors: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (increased US sanctions pressure on Iran and threats of military action) have added additional risk premium to the market, and unforeseen supply disruptions (for example, recent stoppages at the large Tengiz field in Kazakhstan) limited supply. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is unlikely to want to increase production – rather, they will adopt a wait-and-see position to avoid market oversaturation during the seasonally weaker demand period.
Market Reaction to Oil. The base scenario of "no changes" is largely priced in and will likely be perceived neutrally by the market: oil will probably maintain its current fluctuations, while shares of oil and gas companies on global exchanges (and the MOEX index, where the commodity sector has a high share) will demonstrate stable dynamics. However, investors should monitor statements following the meeting. Any hints regarding future steps – for instance, discussions about conditions for a possible production increase in the second quarter or, conversely, readiness to extend restrictions until mid-year – could amplify price fluctuations. If disagreements between participants arise or unexpected proposals (such as unscheduled cuts or increases in production) are mentioned, it could add volatility to the oil market. Additional restrictions would push prices up, while signals regarding possible increases in supply could trigger a short-term price decline.

Industrial Sector: China's PMI and US ISM

China: Signs of Stabilization. January data on business activity in China's manufacturing sector are setting the tone for the entire Asian region. The official PMI for China is expected to hover around the key 50-point mark, which separates growth from contraction. At the end of 2025, the Chinese economy was facing a slowdown, but stimulus and stabilization measures undertaken by Beijing (including easing of credit policy and support for the real estate sector) may have kept the manufacturing sector from further declines. Should the PMI exceed forecasts and rise above 50, it would signal unexpected increases in activity – such a signal would strengthen commodity markets (from copper to oil) and energize shares of Asian companies focused on China's domestic demand. Conversely, a weak PMI (below expectations or in the contraction zone) could intensify concerns regarding the recovery of the Chinese economy, negatively impacting currencies and markets in commodity-exporting countries, as well as overall global risk appetite.
US: First Look at the Economy of 2026. The ISM Manufacturing Activity Index for the US for January will be released on Monday and will be one of the first macro-signals of the year for the American market. At the end of 2025, the US manufacturing sector was in a state of stagnation, and consensus suggests an ISM reading of around 48–50 points (on the verge of the contraction zone). Investors will closely analyze the index components – new orders, employment, price pressures. An improvement in ISM (moving closer to 50 or higher) would indicate that the manufacturing sector is beginning to recover after last year's downturn: this would support stocks in industrial companies, manufacturing, and the commodity sector, and may also trigger a rise in bond yields due to revised expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. However, if the index remains significantly below 50 or declines, markets will interpret this as a signal of ongoing economic weakness – this outcome could, conversely, intensify discussions about the Fed's policy easing and lead to local yield declines while raising concerns about the profitability of industrial giants.
Significance for Markets. The results of China's PMI and the US's ISM will collectively set the direction for global markets at the start of February. Positive surprises in the manufacturing indices (increased activity, inventory reductions, improved new orders) will bolster investors' confidence that the global economy is managing high interest rates while maintaining growth – a favorable factor for equity markets, especially cyclical sectors (machinery, metallurgy, chemicals). At the same time, interest in safe-haven assets would drop as recession risks recede. However, should weak data emerge from both China and the US, the opposite reaction can be expected: discussions about the risks of a global industrial downturn will intensify, leading to more cautious tactics in the markets – a potential rotation from risk assets into bonds and partial profit booking in stocks, especially in segments dependent on investment demand (such as equipment manufacturers, automotive sectors). Thus, monitoring the morning PMI from Asia and the subsequent ISM index in the afternoon becomes an essential task for investors planning their actions at the beginning of the week.

Reports: Pre-Market (BMO, USA)

Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The media giant and component of the Dow Jones index will present its financial results for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year (October–December 2025) before the market opens in the US. Key segment performance during the holiday period will be in focus. Investors will assess revenue from theme parks and resorts (especially following the revival of tourism and attendance), trends in the subscriber base of the Disney+ streaming service and associated losses/profits, as well as box office revenues from recent cinema releases. The management statement is equally important: the market awaits comments from CEO Bob Iger regarding further business restructuring, potential sales of non-core assets (such as TV networks), and cost-cutting plans. Confident results (surpassing profit forecasts and subscriber growth) could boost Disney shares and instill optimism in the entire entertainment and communications sector, while disappointment in figures or a cautious forecast could provoke a decline in share prices, indicating ongoing post-pandemic challenges for the industry.
Other Releases Before Market Open. Among other significant reports in the early morning are Tyson Foods (TSN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX). Tyson, one of the world's leaders in the agro-industrial sector and meat supplier, is reporting against the backdrop of volatile feed prices and changing consumer preferences. Investors will look at Tyson's margins: whether the company managed to pass on increased costs to consumers and maintain profitability, and how sales volumes of chicken, beef, and pork have changed in light of price dynamics. These data will provide guidelines for inflation in the food sector and the state of consumer demand for staple food products. Meanwhile, IDEXX Laboratories – a leading developer of veterinary diagnostic solutions – will present results interesting in terms of spending on pet health. Revenue growth at IDXX might indicate resilience in demand for pet services, even amidst overall economic uncertainty. Overall, morning reports in the US will set the tone: strong results from Tyson, IDEXX, and other S&P 500 companies will reinforce confidence in corporate earnings resilience, while weakness or downgraded forecasts will lead investors to start the week with greater caution.

Reports: Post-Market (AMC, USA)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The well-known big data and analytics platform company will report after the main trading session in the US. Palantir is part of the tech stocks sector with a focus on AI and security solutions, and its results for Q4 of 2025 will attract attention as an indicator of demand for software from government and commercial clients. Focus will be on revenue growth from government contracts (traditionally a strong area for Palantir, especially amid geopolitical instability) and the commercial segment (how actively private businesses are implementing their data analysis platforms). Investors are also expecting information about the early results of the company's AI initiatives that were announced earlier, and comments on profitability: Palantir achieved sustainable net profit for the first time last year, and the question of whether it has managed to maintain positive profitability is crucial. Any signs of accelerated business growth or optimistic forecasts for 2026 (for instance, thanks to new defense contracts or successes of the AIP – Artificial Intelligence Platform) will support further stock growth, while a slowdown in dynamics or lack of progress in monetizing AI solutions may cool investor enthusiasm regarding this popular stock.
Other Companies Reporting After Market Close. Besides Palantir, several well-known issuers will publish reports in the US after the market closes. Among them is chip producer NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), whose Q4 results will reveal the state of the semiconductor industry, especially in the automotive electronics and IoT sectors (it is essential to see if demand from the automotive industry has persisted and if supply chains are still recovering). Several mid-cap technology and biotech companies will also report, while the results from several Japanese corporations for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year are expected in Asia (for example, TDK has already announced its report for this day). Although the impact of these individual releases on the broader market is limited, the cumulative picture matters. For instance, if the semiconductor sector (as exemplified by NXP) shows confident growth and forecasts, it will set a positive tone ahead of larger reports later in the week (in the coming days, giants like Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon will report). Conversely, unexpectedly weak results from individual companies on Monday evening may heighten nervousness and volatility in the technology sector on Tuesday. Investors should pay attention to sector signals: trends revealed in these reports will help adjust earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies going forward.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): For European markets, Sunday is traditionally a calm day, and there are no new corporate earnings releases from major companies today. The main annual reporting season in Europe will begin a little later in February, so at the start of the week, investor attention in the Eurozone shifts to external factors and macro statistics. Focus is on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting (important for energy company stocks and the economies of Norway, the UK), news from Abu Dhabi regarding Ukraine (any decrease in geopolitical tension is positive for European assets), and data from China and the USA. Regional economic indicators will be released in the coming days: inflation data for the Eurozone is expected on Tuesday, with consensus forecasting a further slowdown in price growth (the annual CPI may drop closer to 2.5%, nearing the ECB's target). In the currency market, the euro is holding around the $1.10 mark, and EU government bond yields have stabilized – investors are pricing in a pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank in light of signs of easing inflationary pressure. The absence of internal corporate drivers today means that European stock indices are likely to primarily follow global trends set by weekend news and the dynamics of futures on US indices, with possible corrections influenced by local news (for instance, political events in certain EU countries or fluctuations in natural gas prices).
Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese stock market is entering the week without significant fresh corporate reports on Sunday – most leading companies in the country had already reported their results for the first half of the year, and many are scheduled to publish Q3 results (October-December) in the first half of February (a number of technology corporations are set to report between February 5-10). The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan is relatively stable: inflation in Tokyo is holding at around ~2.4% year-on-year, which, though exceeding the 2% target, still allows the Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates in Japan remain close to zero, and the central bank continues to control bond yields (YCC), which keeps the yen in a weakened state – the exchange rate is fluctuating around ¥158 per US dollar. A weak yen is traditionally favorable for export-oriented companies, contributing to keeping the Nikkei 225 at high levels in recent months. In the absence of domestic news today, the Japanese index will likely be guided by external factors: improved sentiment on Wall Street on Friday and possible positive signals from China (for instance, if the PMI unexpectedly shows growth) could push the Nikkei up at the open. However, the Nikkei's rise may face limitations if geopolitical uncertainty increases or investors shift into safe-haven assets: such scenarios typically see the yen strengthen as a "safe haven," which may temporarily worsen the competitive position of Japanese exporters and lead to corrections in their stocks.
MOEX (Russia): The Russian MOEX index ended January around the 3200-3250 point range, demonstrating moderate growth for the month against a favorable commodity price environment and relative calm on the foreign policy front. As of February 1, no major corporate events are scheduled on the Russian market: the annual financial reporting season for most issuers will begin later, closer to the end of February and March. Today, investors on the MOEX will primarily rely on external signals. The key external factor is the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the dynamics of oil prices: stability or growth in Brent prices post-meeting will support shares of oil and gas companies (Lukoil, Rosneft) and federal budget replenishment, while any disappointment for the oil market will quickly reflect on sentiment in the MOEX. The Russian currency market is relatively calm: the ruble is trading around 90 to the dollar, bolstered by high energy prices and the absence of new sanctions shocks. The tax period at the end of the month has concluded, removing some short-term support, but overall, the balance of power on the FX market has shifted towards stabilization – exporters are selling revenue against the backdrop of expensive oil, offsetting capital outflows. In a relatively neutral global backdrop, today Russian indices are likely to move in line with global trends. Individual corporate stories (for example, possible operational reports from specific companies or management statements) might trigger local fluctuations, but will not set broad index dynamics. The main task for domestic investors is to assess external factors (OPEC+, geopolitics, sentiments in the US and China) and be prepared for their impact on trading at the start of the week.

Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

OPEC+ Decisions and Oil. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will become one of the main benchmarks for the start of the week. The base scenario of maintaining current production levels will likely be received calmly by the market: oil prices will probably remain within the previous range (around $70+ per barrel), and shares of oil and gas companies will continue trading without significant deviations. However, it is important for investors to monitor the rhetoric and comments following the meeting. If leading exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc.) unanimously confirm their commitment to limited production, it would bolster confidence in the stability of commodity markets. Any hints regarding future changes – for instance, possible quota increases in the second quarter or the calling of an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting in light of changing market conditions – could heighten volatility. Special attention should be paid to the reactions of currencies from resource countries: strengthening oil prices will support the ruble, Canadian dollar, and Norwegian krone, while any unexpected "dovish" signals (such as discussions of increasing supply) may lead to their weakening.
Geopolitics and Risk Appetite. The three-way negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a factor that could significantly influence global risk appetite. Investors need to stay attuned to news from the UAE: even on a non-working day, information breakthroughs could set market movements ahead of the Monday opening. A positive outcome (for example, an announcement of ceasefire agreements or a scheduled next round with a specific agenda) would reduce uncertainty and likely support riskier assets: European and emerging market equities might get an upward boost, and prices for safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds) would fall. If, however, the negotiations end without results or new tensions arise, investor willingness to take risks may decline: anticipate increased demand for "safe havens" – the US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen – along with potential corrections in European stock markets. Sectors tied to military spending and commodity supplies (defense, oil and gas, grain markets) will be particularly sensitive: a negative outcome from the negotiations may support prices (pricing in continued conflict), while a positive result may lead to price decreases (due to the reduction of risk premium).
Corporate Reports and Market Sentiment. The ongoing earnings season will shape investor sentiment in the coming week. Already on Monday, both before the opening and after the close, several notable issuer results will be released – their reactions can reveal market moods. Investors should pay attention not only to profit and revenue figures but also management statements regarding prospects for 2026. For example, a better-than-expected Disney report or an optimistic forecast from Palantir regarding demand for their technologies could enhance the climate in relevant sectors (media, technology) and push broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq upward. Conversely, if companies indicate growth slowdowns, margin compression due to costs, or uncertainty in demand, this may trigger profit-taking after recent rallies. Given that significant reports from mega-caps (such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) and major European banks and industrial leaders are ahead in the middle of the week, Monday will only provide the first signal. It is essential for investors to catch these signals and adjust their exposure to sectors showing unexpected strength or weakness.
Macrostats for the Start of the Month. The first week of February is rich in crucial macroeconomic data: in addition to today's PMIs and ISMs, inflation data from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole is expected on Tuesday, and on Friday, the key US Labor Market report (Nonfarm Payrolls for January) will be released. These indicators will help clarify the trajectory of the global economy: is inflation continuing to slow towards central banks' targets, and is growth being sustained? Investors should particularly focus on whether the latest figures confirm the "soft landing" scenario (moderate cooling without recession). If so – low inflation is combined with acceptable growth and employment rates – this is favorable for stocks, as it reduces the likelihood of new monetary policy tightening and reinforces hopes for gradual rate cuts towards the end of the year. Conversely, if data disappoint (for example, if price growth accelerates again or employment sharply declines), markets may react strongly: volatility will rise, and investors will begin asset regrouping, moving to quality bonds and reducing exposure to the riskiest positions. The US employment report is particularly significant: strong Payrolls combined with weak industry could provoke mixed reactions (the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, but consumer demand remains robust), while weak job figures would amplify expectations of policy easing but also add concerns about GDP prospects.
Strategy for CIS Investors. A calm Sunday is a good opportunity to evaluate the portfolio amidst a wave of impending events. Investors from CIS countries should balance key assets and check the balance between risky and defensive instruments. The beginning of a new month is a time when many global funds reallocate capital, and local markets (including the MOEX) may experience additional inflows or outflows. Given the increased uncertainty (geopolitics, macro statistics, corporate reports), it is useful to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels for the most volatile positions. A well-thought-out action strategy for sudden news – whether it be breakthroughs in Ukraine negotiations, the imposition of new sanctions, an unexpected inflation surge, or other force majeure events – will help preserve capital and seize emerging opportunities. Approaching the Monday market opening, an investor armed with a plan and an understanding of the global picture will navigate more confidently through the information flow and make informed decisions.