Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News as of February 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Refineries. Key Events in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of February 1, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and mixed signals. Geopolitical tensions are once again escalating: the U.S. is intensifying its sanctions pressure in the energy sector, while conflict risks in the Middle East are rising, creating uncertainty and pushing oil prices to multi-month highs. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, having experienced a significant decline in 2025, have partly regained lost ground, but remain at moderate levels by historical standards – with oversupply persisting amid subdued demand, and the OPEC+ alliance maintaining control over production. The European gas market is confidently navigating the winter season: record gas inventories in storage and mild weather in January are keeping prices low, providing comfort to consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities are maintaining strict measures to stabilize the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Fuel Price Surge
Global oil prices saw a notable increase last week, reaching their highest values in the past six months. Nonetheless, in general, oil prices remain relatively restrained, thanks to fundamental market factors. The North Sea Brent blend is holding steady around $70–72 per barrel, while the American WTI is in the range of $64–66. These current levels are still 10–15% lower than a year ago and are significantly below the peak values of the 2022–2023 energy crisis.
- OPEC+ Supply: Major oil exporters maintain discipline in their deliveries. In 2025, the OPEC+ alliance gradually increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day (from April to December) as previous restrictions eased, leading to the formation of a surplus. However, at the beginning of 2026, taking into account the seasonally low winter demand, OPEC+ countries decided to pause further increases. At the meeting in January, members unanimously agreed to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to avoid a new market oversupply. If necessary, the alliance signals its readiness to once again cut production. This preventive approach keeps oil prices within a narrow range and reduces volatility.
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil consumption growth has significantly weakened. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand increased in 2025 by only ~0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC estimates demand growth in 2025 to be approximately +1.2 million b/d. The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy and the effects of the previous period of high prices, which stimulated energy savings. An additional contribution to demand restraint comes from China: in the second half of 2025, industrial production and fuel consumption growth in China fell short of expectations (industrial production growth dropped to its lowest rate in 15 months).
- Geopolitical Factors: The oil market is being influenced by opposing political forces. On one hand, the escalation of sanctions has intensified restrictions on energy resource trade. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States imposed the strictest sanctions in years against the Russian oil and gas sector (including a ban on transactions with several major companies), which forced some Asian buyers to reduce their oil imports from Russia. Moreover, Washington practically announced the possibility of imposing high tariffs (up to 500%) on imports to the U.S. from countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas – this initiative aims to deprive Moscow of export revenues that finance the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, risks of disruptions in the Middle East have risen: in January, reports emerged that the U.S. is considering a military strike against Iran concerning Tehran’s nuclear program. Against this backdrop, investors are factoring in an increased risk premium into oil prices. On the other hand, periodic signals about a potential ceasefire in Eastern Europe (albeit without tangible results) create expectations that sooner or later sanctions against Russian exports may be softened, and the full volume of Russian oil may return to the market – this factor weighs on 'bearish' sentiments. Nevertheless, the cumulative influence of all factors maintains a moderate supply surplus over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of slight oversupply.
As a result, oil prices are remaining in a relatively narrow range, lacking sustainable impulses for either further growth or a sharp decline. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events – from OPEC+ decisions (the next ministerial meeting is scheduled for February 1, where an extension of the current production policy is expected) to developments in the geopolitical situation – which could alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter, Prices Remain Low
The gas market is focusing on the successful winter experience of European countries. So far, the season is favoring Europe: January proved relatively mild, allowing gas withdrawal from storage to occur at moderate rates. By early February, underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU was approximately 60% full, significantly above the average level for this time of year and providing a high margin of safety for the supply system.
Thanks to this, along with steady supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from alternative sources, prices in the European market remain low. The benchmark TTF index fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh — several times lower than peak values from the energy crisis two years ago. For industries and consumers, such price levels have provided substantial relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have markedly decreased compared to last winter.
The market is prepared for potential weather surprises: short-term cold spells could temporarily increase demand and prices, but currently, no systemic risks of fuel shortages are apparent. Moreover, the European strategy for diversifying gas sources and energy-saving measures has proven effective, allowing for flexible responses to challenges. Globally, IEA forecasts indicate that world natural gas consumption in 2026 may reach a new record — primarily due to rising demand in Asia. Nevertheless, at present, LNG and pipeline gas supplies are sufficient to meet demand, and the European market is entering the final phase of winter without upheavals.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure, Middle East Tensions, and Changes in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States intensified efforts to limit Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump is promoting a bill through Congress that proposes imposing extraordinarily high tariffs — up to 500% — on imports to the U.S. from countries that “consciously trade” oil and gas with Russia. The aim of the American side is to reduce Moscow's revenue from energy resource exports, which, according to Washington, finances the military conflict in Ukraine. These measures are causing tension in foreign trade: China has sharply protested against external pressure on its energy policy, claiming that its trade with Russia is legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, is trying to maneuver – New Delhi has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports over the past year while simultaneously negotiating with Washington about easing American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another significant event at the beginning of the year is the unexpected changes in Venezuela, which could impact the balance of power in the oil market. In early January, the U.S. conducted a military operation that resulted in the ousting and arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. President Trump expressed Washington's readiness to support a provisional administration in the country until a new government is formed. This unprecedented move has resonated on the international stage: several countries (e.g., China) have condemned the violation of Venezuela's sovereignty and principles of international law. However, for the oil and gas sector, the main question is whether regime change will lead to the return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but due to sanctions and an economic crisis, its production has plummeted over the past decade. Experts note that even with political changes, there will not be an instantaneous surge in exports: the country's oil infrastructure needs significant investment and modernization. Nevertheless, the anticipated gradual lifting of sanctions in the future could increase the supply of heavy Venezuelan oil in the global market, thus becoming a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+.
The situation in the Middle East has also worsened. In January, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, accusing Tehran of advancing its missile-nuclear program and destabilizing the region. Reports emerged that Washington is considering a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomatic pressure does not yield results. Iran has categorically rejected demands to limit its defensive capabilities, stating that it will not tolerate external interference. The escalation of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran has heightened anxiety in the oil market: traders fear supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf in the event of military conflict. Although direct confrontation has been avoided so far, the very threat of destabilization in this key oil-producing region contributes to rising prices and remains one of the main uncertainty factors for energy market participants.
Asia: Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries — key drivers of growth in energy demand — are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the rapidly growing needs of their economies. The policies and choices of energy strategies by the largest Asian consumers, China and India, have a significant impact on the global market:
- India: New Delhi is striving to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India significantly increased its purchases of inexpensive Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western sanctions, it slightly reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. Simultaneously, the country is focusing on developing domestic resources: a large-scale program for exploring offshore oil and gas fields has been launched to increase its own production to meet rapidly growing internal demand. In addition, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacities (solar and wind power plants) and infrastructure for LNG imports, aiming to diversify its energy balance. However, oil and gas remain the foundation of its energy supply, necessary for industry and transportation, so Indian authorities must delicately balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risks of sanctions.
- China: As the world's second-largest economy, China continues to pursue energy self-sufficiency, combining maximum expansion of traditional resources with record investments in clean energy. Preliminary data shows that in 2025, China reached all-time highs in its domestic production of oil and coal to decrease import dependency. At the same time, coal's share in electricity generation in China has fallen to a multi-year low (~55%), as the country has brought record amounts of new solar, wind, and hydroelectric capacities online. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China added more solar and wind power plants than the rest of the world combined, which has helped to curb the increase in fossil fuel consumption. However, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains enormous: oil imports (including Russian oil) continue to play a significant role in meeting demand, especially in transport and petrochemicals. Beijing is also actively securing long-term LNG supply contracts and increasing nuclear power generation. In the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China is expected to set even more ambitious targets for developing non-carbon energy while ensuring sufficient reserve traditional capacities — authorities aim to avoid energy shortages considering the experience of power outages in the last decade.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming the irreversibility of this trend. Many countries reported record electricity generation from renewable sources. According to international analytical centers, the total generation from wind and solar surpassed the electricity produced from all coal power plants for the first time in 2025. This historic milestone was made possible by a sharp increase in new capacities: in 2025, global electricity generation from solar power plants grew by about 30% compared to the previous year, while wind generation rose by 7%. This was enough to cover the main increase in global electricity demand and allowed a reduction in fossil fuel use in several regions.
However, the rapid growth of green energy is accompanied by reliability issues in power supply. When demand growth exceeds the commissioning of renewables or weather conditions are unfavorable (calm, drought, extreme cold), energy systems must compensate for shortages with traditional generation. For example, in 2025, in the U.S., as the economy revived, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants increased since existing renewables were insufficient to meet additional demand. In Europe, due to weak winds and low water levels in hydropower resources during summer and autumn, the burning of natural gas and coal had to be partially increased to meet energy needs.
These examples show that coal, gas, and nuclear power stations still play a crucial role as an essential safety net, compensating for the variability of solar and wind generation. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other advanced technologies to smooth out generation fluctuations. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the swift growth of renewables is progressing alongside the retention of a significant share of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which ensure stability in energy systems and provide base loads.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The global coal market demonstrates how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite efforts to decarbonize, coal use on the planet remains at record high levels. Preliminary data shows that in 2025, global coal demand increased by about 0.5%, reaching approximately 8.85 billion tons — a historic maximum. The main growth occurred in Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, the relative role of coal in electricity generation, although it has decreased to a minimum in recent decades, remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025, seeking to prevent energy supply disruptions. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to burn coal actively to meet the growing demand for electricity, as alternative sources are not developing at the same pace.
Prices for energy coal in 2025 stabilized after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (e.g., Newcastle coal), prices remained significantly below the peak of 2022, although above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade and then begin to gradually decline as climate policies intensify and numerous new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base generation and heat for industries, so until effective substitutes emerge, demand for coal will remain stable. Thus, the confrontation between environmental goals and economic realities continues to determine the fate of the coal industry: the downward trend is evident, but the "swan song" of coal has not yet arrived.
Russian Oil Product Market: Price Stabilization through State Intervention
In the Russian fuel market, as of early 2026, relative stabilization has emerged, achieved through unprecedented state intervention. Back in August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel surged to record levels, prompting the government to intervene swiftly. Strict temporary export restrictions on oil products were introduced, control over domestic fuel distribution was strengthened, and measures of financial support for oil refineries were expanded. These steps yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices have eased from peaks, and retail prices at filling stations grew only moderately — around 5–6% for the entire 2025, corresponding with inflation. A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including in remote regions, are stocked with fuel even during seasonal demand surges.
Russian authorities state their intention to keep the situation under control. Export restrictions on fuel remain in place as of early 2026 (with gasoline restrictions extended at least until the end of February), and further tightening may occur at the first signs of a new imbalance. The government is also prepared to resort to commodity interventions from state fuel reserves if needed to smooth out price fluctuations. For participants in the energy market, this policy means predictability in domestic oil product prices, despite external shocks — sanctions and volatility in global prices. Oil companies have had to accept partial export restrictions, but overall, stabilizing the domestic fuel market strengthens assurance that the interests of consumers and the economy will be reliably protected from price shocks.
