Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, 13 February 2026: CPI Inflation in the USA and Russia, Central Bank of Russia Interest Rate Decision, Eurozone GDP, and Major Public Company Earnings. Analysis of Impact on S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX.
For investors, Friday, 13 February 2026, is not about the superstition associated with the date but rather about a rare concentration of macro signals that could swiftly shift expectations regarding interest rates, currencies, and risk appetite. In a single session, the market will receive: inflation (CPI) data from Switzerland and the USA, an assessment of Eurozone GDP, the Central Bank of Russia's decision on the key rate, and the regulator's press conference, followed by CPI data from Russia in the evening. This sequence is compounded by the earnings reports of several major public companies from the USA, Canada, and Europe, as well as a block of reports from Japan. Such a combination often amplifies intraday volatility, increases sensitivity to data surprises, and provokes rotations across sectors (finance, real estate, consumer demand, energy infrastructure, and commodities).
Economic Events of the Day: Schedule for Moscow
- 10:30 — Switzerland: CPI for January
- 13:00 — Eurozone: GDP (estimate/revision) for Q4
- 13:30 — Russia: Central Bank of Russia interest rate decision
- 15:00 — Russia: Central Bank of Russia press conference
- 16:30 — USA: CPI for January
- 19:00 — Russia: CPI for January
This sequence establishes a "chain" of influence for a global portfolio: starting with Europe via the data from Switzerland and the Eurozone, followed by Russia through the rate decision and commentary from the Central Bank, and culminating in the key impetus from the USA's CPI data, after which Russian inflation could recalibrate expectations for the trajectory of domestic rates as the day comes to a close.
Switzerland: CPI as a Signal for Safe-Haven Currencies and European Assets
Swiss inflation is traditionally significant not just locally. The Swiss franc is often viewed by the market as a safe-haven currency, and any deviations in CPI from expectations can rapidly impact interest rate expectations and CHF dynamics. For investors, this primarily channels through currency movements: the EUR/CHF exchange rate and the overall sentiment in risk-off/risk-on for the European session. If CPI surpasses consensus, the market is likely to price in a tighter trajectory for financial conditions—this can put pressure on high-value segments in Europe through rising yields. A weaker CPI, on the other hand, diminishes the risk of "rate overshooting" and typically supports cyclical stories, provided that macro conditions do not worsen.
Eurozone: GDP as a Test of Demand and Rate Resilience
The publication of Eurozone GDP is crucial for assessing how well the economy is coping with the prevailing financial conditions. For the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader European basket, it is not so much about the tenths of growth but the balance of consumption, investment, and exports. A stronger-than-expected GDP typically increases the likelihood of a more "patient" stance regarding policy easing, which, in turn, could push yields higher and prompt a selective revaluation of "long" growth stories. Conversely, a weaker GDP raises the appeal of defensive sectors and supports expectations for a softer rate trajectory, which often benefits interest-sensitive sectors including real estate and parts of the tech sector in Europe. For CIS investors, the currency aspect is also crucial: the EUR/USD response sets the backdrop for several commodity and export stories in emerging markets.
Russia: Central Bank Rate Decision and Press Conference as Drivers for MOEX and the Ruble
At 13:30 MSK, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its key rate decision, followed by a press conference at 15:00, which often provides the market with more insights than the figure itself. If the regulator signals a prolonged period of tough conditions, this supports the ruble through interest rate differentials, but simultaneously elevates the discounting of future cash flows and adversely affects domestic demand sensitivity. Under such circumstances, exporters and companies with significant foreign currency income often benefit, while segments tied to the credit cycle (some developers, consumer stories, and companies with high debt loads) become more vulnerable.
If the rhetoric shifts towards a softer trajectory (or if the market receives indications of an earlier reversal), short-term support may gravitate towards "domestic demand" and certain financial assets. However, this also heightens currency risk and increases the importance of the evening's CPI release from Russia: weak disinflation under softer rhetoric usually escalates uncertainty regarding the ruble and yields.
USA: CPI as the Key Global Trigger of the Day for S&P 500 and Yields
The American CPI at 16:30 MSK is a key release for global risk appetite, the dollar, and the yield curve. The market typically trades not the "inflation" per se, but the deviations from expectations and their implications for the future rate trajectory. A "hotter" CPI usually results in rising yields and a strengthened USD, which puts pressure on high-duration securities (often tech stocks and various consumer segments) and increases volatility in the S&P 500 index. Alternatively, a "softer" CPI supports risk, improves conditions for multiplier growth, and often boosts demand for quality growth stocks.
It is also important to note that some corporate earnings reports from North America are released before the US market opens—meaning the market will receive "micro" news prior to the CPI, and then can reassess their significance against the backdrop of any macro surprises. This raises the likelihood of sharp intraday movements in stocks, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.
Russia: Evening CPI as an Update on the Inflation Profile and Interest Rates
The release of Russia's CPI at 19:00 MSK concludes the chain of macro events. For local assets, this could act as a "second round" of reactions following the Central Bank's decision: if inflation exceeds expectations, the market frequently revises forecasts concerning the real rate and the duration of the tight regime. Practically, this influences government bonds, the banking sector, credit spreads, and the ruble. If the CPI confirms a deceleration, the odds for a more stable rate profile increase, which enhances predictability for domestic demand companies and relieves pressure on multipliers.
Corporate Reports: Pre-Market (USA/Canada/Europe) and Asian Session
Below are key public companies whose earnings are tied to 13 February 2026. For investors, not only profit figures matter, but also guidance, commentary on demand, margin dynamics, and capital expenditures—they are crucial for medium-term sector re-evaluation.
Before Market Opening (Pre-Market) — USA and Canada
- Moderna (MRNA) — focus on revenue from its portfolio, spending rates, and pipeline forecasts; sensitive to overall risk-on sentiment post-CPI.
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN) — margin, comparable sales dynamics, comments on consumer demand and price pressure.
- Cameco (CCJ) — uranium cycle, contracts, and pricing conditions; often seen as a commodity hedge and beneficiary of the energy transition.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) — demand for auto components and quality of operational recovery; sensitive to consumer trends and funding costs.
- Enbridge (ENB) — dividends, capital expenditures, cash flow stability; "income infrastructure" relies on interest rates through required yields.
- TC Energy (TRP) — tariff base and investment program; investors look for stability in cash flows and regulatory risks.
- Magna International (MGA) — auto supply chain, orders, and margins; sensitive to the cycle and rates via auto demand.
- Sensient Technologies (SXT) — defensive profile in consumer goods/ingredients, but margin and currency effect are crucial.
- Colliers (CIGI) — real estate and deal market; highly sensitive to interest rates and financing expectations.
- Essent Group (ESNT) — mortgage insurance; depends on housing market conditions and credit quality.
Europe: Major Issuers
- NatWest Group (NWG) — banking margin, asset quality, and cost of risk; reaction intensifies with any change in rate expectations.
- Norsk Hydro (NHY) — aluminium, energy costs, and global demand; important for assessing the commodity cycle in Europe.
Asia: Key Companies in Japan (Earnings during Asian Session)
- ENEOS Holdings — energy sector, refining margins, and capital expenditure strategy.
- Dentsu Group — advertising market and corporate budgets; indicator of business activity.
- Kirin Holdings — consumer sector, cost inflation, and demand.
- Terumo — medical technology and demand resilience in healthcare.
Key Events of the Day: Where to Expect Maximum Volatility
- 13:30–15:00 MSK — Russia: rate decision and press conference. The market reevaluates not just the decision but also the "reaction function" of the Central Bank to inflation and risk.
- 16:30 MSK — USA: CPI. Typically the main impulse for yields and the dollar, which rapidly transmits effects into equities, commodities, and currencies of emerging markets.
- 19:00 MSK — Russia: CPI. Updates the inflation profile post-Central Bank decision and affects expectations regarding the duration of the tight regime.
- Reports before US opening — Pre-market activity in certain stocks can indicate "local trends," but CPI may amplify or negate them.
What Investors Should Focus On
The focus of the day is on risk management and discipline regarding exposures, rather than attempting to "guess" a singular release. Practically, this means: (1) prior to the Central Bank of Russia's decision, check currency limits and portfolio sensitivity to rates; (2) during the interim before the US CPI — monitor the tone of Central Bank rhetoric and ruble/yields response as an early sentiment indicator; (3) following the US CPI — prioritize yields and the dollar, as these set the direction for global risk-on/risk-off; (4) after Russia's CPI — assess how the profile of real rate expectations changes and which MOEX sectors appear more resilient in the updated configuration.
From the perspective of the global equity market (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225), the key scenario of the day is determined by whether inflation in the USA poses a "surprise" relative to expectations. The corporate reports of major issuers add selective opportunities; however, on such a macro day, interest rates, yields, and currencies typically dictate the final risk picture.
