Oil & Gas and Energy News, Saturday, February 14, 2026: OPEC+ Leans Towards Production Increase from April, Oil Prices Retreat
As of February 13, 2026 (time of measurement — unspecified), the global energy market has shifted into a reevaluation mode: expectations of OPEC+ resuming production growth from April have intensified pressure on oil prices, while EIA statistics indicated a notable increase in crude oil inventories in the United States. Meanwhile, the IEA maintains a cautious tone regarding demand in its February report, warning of the risk of surplus in 2026. For investors in oil, gas, and energy, this shifts the focus to refinery margins, fuel supply chains, and the quality of investment in electricity and renewable energy sources.
- Oil: Brent priced at around $67/barrel, WTI at approximately $62–63/barrel; the market is pricing in higher supply for the second quarter.
- Gas: TTF at around €32/MWh; Europe enters the gas storage refill season with low inventories (exact figure as of February 13 — unspecified).
- Electricity: for the supply on February 14, certain zones continue to experience three-digit price levels — grid investments and connection policies are becoming key drivers for renewables.
Oil Market: OPEC+, Demand, and 2026 Expectations
The key news of the day for the oil sector was the internal OPEC+ discussions regarding the resumption of production increases starting April 2026 after a pause in January to March. The market interprets this as an effort to "secure" market share ahead of summer demand, even as the balance for the second quarter appears softer than the seasonal norm. Additionally, the IEA's February report projects global demand growth in 2026 at approximately 850,000 barrels per day, while global supply is estimated to increase by about 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. This heightens price sensitivity to actual export flows and adherence to quotas, which is critical for hedging strategies and investment in production.
For upstream investment, this means higher requirements for cost efficiency and cash flow stability. “Long” projects are being closely scrutinized, with the market increasingly favoring companies with robust free cash flow and predictable capital policies. Geopolitical factors, particularly in the Middle East, continue to be a source of volatility, though their contribution to prices as of February 13, 2026, remains unspecified.
Prices and Indicators as of February 13–14
- Brent Oil: around $67/barrel.
- WTI Oil: approximately $62–63/barrel.
- TTF Gas (Europe): approximately €32/MWh.
- Henry Hub Gas (USA): around $3.17/MMBtu.
- JKM LNG (Asia): approximately $11/MMBtu.
- Newcastle Coal: around $115–116/ton.
- Electricity (Nord Pool, supply for February 14): Germany ~€103.5/MWh; Netherlands ~€95/MWh; France ~€34/MWh; other zones — unspecified.
- EU ETS (carbon): around €73/ton CO₂ as of February 12; status on February 13 — unspecified.
USA: Inventories, Refineries, and Signals for Oil Products
American EIA statistics set the tone for discussions on the market's "physical" aspects. For the week ending February 6, commercial oil inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels. Refineries processed about 16.0 million barrels per day, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks decreased by 2.7 million barrels.
For the oil products segment, this indicates a diverging balance: with comfortable crude oil stocks, the market might experience local tightening in diesel and jet fuel, particularly if seasonal weather boosts demand. This is significant for investors, as refinery margins and oil product exports from the USA to Europe often serve as a buffer for the global fuel market.
Refineries and Oil Products: Operational Events and Market Impact
Operational risks in refining are back in focus. In Russia, sources report that the Volgograd refinery halted processing after a fire caused by a drone attack; a major primary processing unit was damaged. While this indirectly impacts the global oil market, such incidents raise risk premiums for the regional oil products balance (especially diesel) and elevate import demand, potentially supporting margins for European refineries.
In Europe, compliance with sanctions is reshaping operational models: TotalEnergies has moved to take complete operational control over the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands while retaining a stake for Lukoil, concentrating raw material procurement and oil product sales within a single management framework. In Africa, a significant signal comes from Nigeria, where Dangote has resumed operations of a major atmospheric distillation unit, with a test launch of the gasoline block expected in the coming days — this potentially enhances oil product self-sufficiency in the region and alters regional demand for oil.
Gas and LNG: Europe Between Gas Storage and a New Supply Regime
The European gas market remains sensitive to inventories and competition for LNG. TTF remains around €32/MWh, although for investors, the trajectory for gas storage is more crucial: public assessments indicate that European storage levels are currently around 35–36% full (exact figure as of February 13, 2026 — unspecified). Furthermore, the EU has approved a phased ban on imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027 (LNG — earlier), reinforcing Europe's structural dependency on the global LNG market and increasing the value of flexible supply arrangements.
In Asia, the JKM marker at around $11/MMBtu indicates relatively calm demand, but supply is affected by megaproject timelines. Reports suggest a delay in the start of the first phase of expansion for Qatar's LNG facilities until the end of 2026. For the European and Asian markets, this sustains a premium for "ready molecules" and increases the significance of investment in regasification, gas infrastructure, and flexibility in power generation.
Electricity and Renewables: Prices, Grids, and Investment Cycle
On February 14, electricity prices in Europe, according to Nord Pool, remain heterogeneous: Germany around €103.5/MWh, Netherlands around €95/MWh, France around €34/MWh. This disparity is attributed to the generation mix (nuclear, gas, renewables), the availability of interconnections, and grid constraints. The investment cycle in the energy sector is increasingly focused on infrastructure: in the UK, record subsidy contracts have been granted for solar generation, and the dispute between London and Paris over financing additional interconnection cables highlights that grid projects are becoming a political factor influencing the pace of renewables integration.
On the continent, the "cost of the grid" is intensifying: in Germany, discussions are underway regarding a mechanism where renewable energy developers will bear more of the costs associated with grid connections. For renewable projects, this could mean revisiting internal rates of return (IRR) and more selective site selection. France's strategy emphasizes the growth of decarbonized electricity (nuclear and renewables) and stimulating electrification of demand, which strengthens the structural investment demand for grids and flexibility (energy storage, demand management).
Coal: Price Benchmark, Asia, and Carbon Risks
Coal remains a "safety net" resource in global energy, primarily in Asia. Newcastle prices hold steady around $115–116/ton, which maintains significance for marginal electricity generation and hedging portfolios. In Europe, the role of coal is determined by CO₂ prices and energy system conditions: sharp movements in EU ETS prices temporarily alter the economics of coal generation but do not lift the long-term constraints on financing coal assets and projects.
Regulatory, Sanction Risks and Outlook
Regulatory and sanction risks remain systemic for the energy sector. In Europe, the volatility of CO₂ prices heightens uncertainty for decarbonization investments, while changes in sanction regimes within the oil and gas sector can rapidly redistribute oil flows and feedstock for refineries (including Venezuelan sources). The baseline scenario for oil in the coming days suggests consolidation within the $65–70 range for Brent, driven primarily by OPEC+ supply dynamics.
Scenarios for the Coming Days:
- Base Case: oil remaining in range, gas under the influence of weather and gas storage dynamics, electricity affected by grid constraints.
- Upside Risk: infrastructure disruptions and tightening sanctions increase risk premiums for oil and diesel, supporting refiner margins and oil product prices.
- Downside Risk: accelerated expectations for production increases and growth in the availability of heavy oil pressure oil prices and upstream investments.
Checklist for Energy Market Participants:
- OPEC+ communications leading up to the March 1 meeting;
- Weekly EIA data on oil, gas, and oil products;
- Dynamics of European gas storage and competitive situation in the LNG market (as of February 13 — unspecified);
- News on refineries (maintenance, incidents) and oil product supply chains;
- Decisions regarding networks, interconnectors, and carbon impacting electricity and renewables.
