Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Saturday, February 7, 2026: Elections in Japan, China’s Reserves, and Central Bank Pause

Saturday brings a relative calm after an intense week: financial markets digest recent central bank decisions and corporate reports, while investors prepare for a series of events that could set the tone for the beginning of the new trading week. There are no significant macroeconomic releases scheduled for today; however, a globally significant political event is in the spotlight: early parliamentary elections in Japan. At the same time, market participants are monitoring signals from China (including an update on January's foreign exchange reserves) and evaluating the effects of the pause in the release of US statistics due to a temporary government shutdown. In these conditions, Saturday serves as a pause for reevaluating positions and preparing for upcoming market movements.

In the global macroeconomic picture, there is a reprieve: leading central banks have synchronously held their interest rates, confirming a wait-and-see tactic. The US Federal Reserve maintained its rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January meeting, signalling a desire to assess the impact of previous policy easing measures. The European Central Bank, at the conclusion of its meeting on February 5, left rates unchanged (the deposit rate remains around 2.15%), noting that inflation in the Eurozone is close to target levels and that time is needed to analyze price dynamics. The Bank of England also voted to maintain its rate at 3.75%, a decision taken by a majority in the context of declining inflation and moderate economic growth in the UK. In Japan, the Bank of Japan held the key rate at 0.75% earlier in January; however, the upcoming **early elections for parliament** (February 8) could indirectly influence future monetary policy in the country. Central banks are signalling a pause in the rate change cycle, allowing markets to stabilize: bond yields are fluctuating within a narrow range, while exchange rates of emerging market currencies are supported by the weakening US dollar. Simultaneously, investors are keeping an eye on the resumption of operations of US statistical agencies – the delay in releasing key indicators (such as the January employment report) adds uncertainty, but publications are expected to resume next week.

American stock markets concluded the week with restraint, showing mixed dynamics. On Friday, major indices recouped some losses: the Dow Jones rose approximately 2%, reaching a historic high, the S&P 500 added around 1.6%, and the Nasdaq strengthened by ~1.8%. However, even this rally could not completely offset the declines of recent days – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded declines for the week (the third drop in the last four weeks for the tech-heavy index). Pressure on the market earlier in the week stemmed from concerns over overheating in the tech sector and the enormous expenses incurred by industry leaders on artificial intelligence, prompting partial profit-taking by investors. An additional factor contributing to uncertainty was the delayed publication of essential US statistics: due to the government shutdown, the release of the January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which traditionally shapes market sentiment, was postponed to February 11. In the absence of fresh data, investors oriented themselves to corporate results and forecasts. Yields on US Treasury bonds remained relatively stable (10-year UST around 4.2%), reflecting expectations for further easing of Fed policy throughout the year. The US dollar slightly weakened against major currencies: the USD index decreased to the range of 97–98, as the Fed's pause and the absence of surprises in the economy reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the US market heads into the weekend with cautious optimism – participants await the resumption of macro data releases and seek new indicators in corporate announcements.

European stock indices approached the weekend without sharp changes, reflecting signals from the ECB and local statistics. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fluctuated within a narrow range last week, finishing Friday near previous closing levels. Investors in Europe received confirmation of the expected scenario: the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and confirmed that inflation is gradually slowing towards the target of 2%. This strengthened confidence that there will not be any new rate hikes in the near future and provided support to rate-sensitive sectors – particularly the banking and real estate sectors, which benefited from the stabilization of borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic picture in the region remains mixed. Preliminary GDP data from several Eurozone countries for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be published next week, and markets are bracing themselves in anticipation: forecasts indicate weak positive growth in Germany and France, while the UK might show stagnation or a symbolic decline. The British FTSE 100 held close to local highs, despite the Bank of England's pause – many export-oriented companies benefited from a relatively weak pound. The European energy sector demonstrated neutral dynamics: oil prices stabilized and the gas market remained balanced. In the absence of shocks, investors in Europe are focused on corporate news and preparing to evaluate new data on industrial production and inflation to adjust expectations for ECB policy in March.

Asian markets maintain a generally cautious optimism, although investor attention is shifting to regional events. At the center of the Asian agenda is Japan, where early general elections for the lower house of parliament are set to take place on Sunday, February 8. Prime Minister Sanae Takachi hopes to strengthen her government’s mandate; political stability or instability could reflect on the dynamics of the yen and Japanese stocks at the beginning of the week. Ahead of the elections, the Nikkei 225 index traded without significant changes: investors took a wait-and-see position, considering that opinion polls promise the ruling coalition to maintain a majority, though intrigue in the distribution of seats remains. The Japanese market is also digesting signals from the Bank of Japan – although the regulator did not change its rate, it indicated that further steps would depend on post-election economic policy and inflation dynamics, which has begun to accelerate to 2% in Japan. In China, cautious optimism prevails: official data indicates continued stabilization of the economy. An update on China's international reserves for January is expected today – analysts forecast a figure of around $3.35 trillion, comparable to the previous month. Stable foreign exchange reserves indicate a relative balance of capital flows and support for the yuan from the regulator. Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets demonstrated moderate growth in the past week amid expectations of stimulus measures: the authorities promised to support the banking sector with additional liquidity ahead of extended holidays for the Lunar New Year (the festival will begin on February 17). Moreover, investors welcome signs of recovering domestic demand – data on production and retail sales, to be released early next week, will help gauge the strength of this trend. Overall, Asian exchanges are concluding the week without upheavals: MSCI Asia ex-Japan shows a slight rise, supported by gains in Indian and Southeast Asian markets. The region's currencies, including the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, maintain stability, benefiting from the Fed's pause and a capital influx into emerging markets.

The Russian stock and currency markets demonstrate stability at the end of the week against the backdrop of external calm and internal news. The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) concluded Friday's trading with a slight increase, consolidating near local highs. This was supported by a relatively favourable environment in commodity markets: Brent crude is holding around $65 per barrel, which is comfortable for Russian exporters and the budget. The Russian ruble has appreciated slightly in recent days, trading near 74 rubles per US dollar, aided by stable oil and gas revenues and foreign exchange sales by exporters as part of the budget rule. Investors are also assessing fresh macro data: according to the Ministry of Finance, the Federal budget deficit in January 2026 was approximately 1.7 trillion rubles (0.7% of GDP) – significantly higher than a year earlier, due to a 50% year-on-year decline in oil and gas revenues (to 393 billion rubles) alongside a 4.5% year-on-year increase in non-oil revenues. Although such a start to the year raises questions about the stability of budget policy, authorities assure that the situation is under control and that the deficit will decrease with the arrival of quarterly tax payments. OFZ bonds remain calm: yields on ten-year securities fluctuate around 10.5-11%, reflecting expectations of soon easing monetary policy. Indeed, all eyes are on the Bank of Russia – its next key rate meeting is scheduled for February 13. Market participants are pricing in a high probability that the Central Bank of Russia will keep the rate at the current level (15% per annum) following a series of increases in the second half of 2025. The slowdown in inflation in Russia (consumer prices in January grew by less than 0.5% month-on-month) and the strengthening of the ruble create prerequisites for easing the regulator's rhetoric. Nevertheless, any rate reduction may only occur closer to spring if inflation expectations consistently trend downwards. Overall, the Russian financial market enters the weekend in a balanced manner: investors are aware of high-interest rates and budget risks but see support from exports and regulators' readiness to deploy tools to maintain stability when necessary.

Saturday traditionally brings no new financial reporting publications, so investor attention is focused on the outcomes of the past week and anticipated releases in the coming days. On a global level, the reporting season for the fourth quarter of 2025 continues, and several leading companies have already presented their results, setting the tone for the market. Here are some of the most notable cases by regions and sectors:

Apple (USA): The tech giant reported record revenue for the holiday quarter of 2025 – sales reached $143.8 billion (+16% YoY) driven by high demand for new iPhone models and growth in services. Profit and margin also surpassed analysts' forecasts. Apple's management noted the resilience of consumer demand and announced an expansion of the buyback program, which was positively received by the market: the company's shares remain close to historical highs.
Amazon (USA): The largest e-commerce and cloud company reported mixed results: revenue for Q4 grew by about 14% YoY; however, quarterly profit fell short of expectations. Moreover, Amazon's plans for capital expenditures in 2026 (around $200 billion, including investments in AI infrastructure and logistics) worried investors regarding the scale of spending. In light of this news, Amazon's shares dropped by ~8%, reflecting concerns about the business's margin. Nevertheless, management assures that the investments will pay off with long-term growth in the cloud and advertising segments.
LVMH (Europe): The world's largest luxury goods conglomerate (brands like Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët Hennessy, etc.) reported results for the 2025 financial year. Annual revenue was approximately €80.8 billion, down 5% from the record level of 2024, partly due to currency factors and slowed sales in the fashion and leather goods segment. Operating profit fell by ~9% YoY. LVMH's management noted that demand stabilized in the second half of 2025, especially in the US, and expressed cautious optimism for 2026, expecting a recovery in growth in China after restrictions are lifted. Investors reacted neutrally to the results: LVMH shares remained in the range of recent months, considering the already factored-in slowdown.
Toyota (Japan): The automaker released its results for Q3 of the 2025 financial year (October-December). Toyota's revenue increased by ~7% due to growth in global car sales and a weaker yen; however, operating profit declined for the third consecutive quarter. Profitability came under pressure from rising costs and new import tariffs in the US, leading to a ~15% YoY drop in operating profit. Nevertheless, the company maintained its annual forecast unchanged and announced a leadership change: in April 2026, the CEO position will be transferred to Kenta Kon. The market reacted calmly to the news: Toyota shares traded with minor fluctuations, as the profit decline was anticipated.
Sberbank (Russia): The leading Russian bank finished 2025 on a high note. For the fourth quarter, according to preliminary unaudited estimates, Sberbank showed a doubling of net profit YoY, benefiting from high-interest rates and increased loan margins. The loan portfolio continued to expand, especially in the corporate segment, and asset quality remains stable. Such results essentially guarantee a record annual profit for the bank and build expectations for generous dividends for 2025. Investors view Sberbank's outlook positively: its shares have steadily risen in recent weeks, considering the prospects of a rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia later in 2026, which could stimulate further loan demand.

Thus, Saturday, February 7, 2026, passes relatively calmly, but ahead are several events that could significantly influence sentiment in global markets. Investors should use this pause for analysis and prepare for potential volatility. Key indicators for the coming days and weeks include the following points:

Political Events in Asia: The results of the early elections in Japan will be known on Sunday. The retention of a stable government or an unexpected outcome could influence the yen's exchange rate and the dynamics of the Japanese market and set the tone for trading in the Asia-Pacific region at the beginning of the week.
Important Macroeconomic Data: In the US, the publication of the key labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls for January) has been postponed to February 11, traditionally shaping expectations for Fed policy. Throughout the week, investors are also awaiting inflation data in the US (CPI for January) – its release may be shifted in the schedule, but its significance for the market will remain high. In Europe, attention will focus on preliminary GDP estimates for the UK and the Eurozone for Q4 of 2025: these figures will show how confidently the largest economies are overcoming current challenges.
Commodity Price Dynamics: Oil prices and other commodities remain important indicators for the global market. Brent crude is holding around comfortable levels of $60–65 per barrel following coordinated OPEC+ actions to regulate production. Over the weekend, investors should monitor any statements from major oil exporters – unexpected comments or cartel decisions could lead to price fluctuations. Volatility in the commodity market will directly impact the currencies and shares of resource-producing countries (Russian ruble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, shares of oil and gas companies and metallurgists).
Monetary Policy and Bond Markets: After the synchronized pause of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, investors will look for hints on future steps from regulators. The Bank of Russia's meeting is scheduled for next week (February 13) – any rate changes or rhetoric from one of the few central banks still maintaining a tight policy will attract the attention of global players. Additionally, comments from representatives of the Fed, ECB, or Bank of Japan in the coming days could adjust rate expectations for the following months. Bond yields, particularly US Treasuries and German bunds, will be sensitive to these signals and set the direction for the entire capital market.
Geopolitical Risks and Unexpected News: In a relatively calm environment of scheduled events, unexpected information can serve as a trigger for sentiment changes. Negotiations on the international stage (for example, dialogue regarding Iran's nuclear program, trade discussions between the US and China, or news from the Ukrainian front) may emerge over the weekend. It is important for investors to remain vigilant to news feeds: any major statements from politicians, sanctions decisions, or unforeseen circumstances could provoke short-term strong movements in specific assets and sectors.

This current calm provides an opportunity for investors to reassess their strategies and balance their portfolios ahead of the upcoming events. Analyzing the latest trends – from company financial results to signals from central banks – will help make informed decisions. An eventful week lies ahead, and attention to these factors will allow timely reactions to changes in market conditions, keeping the portfolio aligned with updated realities. Global markets stand at a crossroads: the outcome of the elections in Japan, US statistics, and new economic indicators will determine the direction of capital movement, and a prepared investor will face them fully armed.