Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, January 26, 2026: US Durable Goods Orders, Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany, Earnings Reports from Major Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia. Analysis for Investors and Overview of Global Markets.
The new week begins relatively calmly but holds significant signals for global markets. Investors are focused on US industrial data – primarily the December durable goods orders – which will clarify the state of the manufacturing sector ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision mid-week. In Europe, attention is drawn to the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. On the corporate agenda, the first reports of the season are set to be released: industrial and financial companies in the US will report, while a leading airline's results stand out in Europe. In Asia, trading activity is somewhat subdued due to a holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to reflect global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the absence of significant macroeconomic statistics is compensated by close attention to any signals regarding the trajectory of the economy and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 – US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 16:30 – US: Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation (December).
- 18:30 – US: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index (January).
US: Durable Goods Orders
- Total Orders Dynamics – a gauge of business investment in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for goods with a service life of more than three years (autos, machinery, equipment) signals a revival of the industrial sector and companies' confidence in future demand. Conversely, a decrease would point to caution among manufacturers and could amplify concerns about a slowing economy.
- Core Orders (excluding transportation and defense) – reflect trends in private sector capital spending. Orders for capital goods excluding the defense and aerospace sectors are particularly significant as a forward-looking indicator of business investment. A sustained increase in this metric would support positive GDP expectations for the US in Q4, while weakness may prompt a revision of forecasts downward.
- Market Impact – strong order data could bolster the US dollar and raise Treasury yields, indicating economic resilience before the Fed's decision. This may put pressure on high-tech stocks (sensitive to interest rates) but support share prices in the industrial sector. Conversely, weak statistics could weaken the dollar and decrease yields, enhancing expectations for a dovish policy – temporarily supporting stock indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiments – the January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first major indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in the index will indicate a recovery in business activity at the beginning of 2026 after possible stagnation, thus supporting European markets and the euro. A decline in the index would signal weakness in demand and investment in the EU's largest economy.
- Index Components – investors will closely monitor the sub-indices of the current situation and business expectations. A rise in the expectations component is particularly important: companies' optimism regarding the future may signal a reduction in recession risks in Europe. If expectations have worsened, this could intensify risk-averse sentiments, potentially leading to a fall in the DAX index and increasing demand for safe assets (bonds, gold).
- Link to ECB Policy – although the European Central Bank's decision is not expected on this day, the Ifo data indirectly influences ECB rhetoric. An improving business climate would provide arguments for hawks supporting further tightening of policy to curb inflation, while a weak index would add weight to caution. This, in turn, will reflect on the EUR/USD exchange rate and European bond yields.
Earnings Reports: Before US Market Opens (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – one of the largest steel producers in America will report before the market opens. Investors will focus on the margins of the metallurgical business and management forecasts on steel demand for 2026. Important aspects include shipment volumes and price dynamics; an increase in sales amid stable prices would indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also evaluate the company's comments on raw material and energy costs to understand cost pressures.
Earnings Reports: After US Market Closes (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – the largest steel producer in the US (S&P 500). The Q4 report will showcase the state of US metallurgy. Key indicators include the average realized price for steel products, capacity utilization, and shipping volumes. Investors are also awaiting forecasts on demand from the construction and automotive sectors – major consumers of steel. Strong results from Nucor could serve as a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak figures may heighten concerns regarding the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – an insurance broker and consultant. The company's results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission income and organic premium growth will indicate healthy demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers. Particularly significant are management comments on property and liability insurance pricing and forecasts for new client acquisition rates. BRO's data is of interest to investors as an indicator of the financial sector and business activity among small and medium enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – a major commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). Focus will be on the combined ratio (loss and expense ratio to premiums) and trends in insurance reserves. Improvement in these metrics indicates profitability in underwriting and the stability of the insurance portfolio. Additionally, WRB may comment on trends in losses due to natural disasters and large claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts will support results. Berkley's report will provide benchmarks for the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – an investment trust specializing in real estate for scientific research laboratories and biotech offices. The quarterly report will indicate whether the demand for laboratory space remains high despite the overall weakness in commercial real estate. Investors will assess the occupancy rates, rental trends, and plans for new campus developments. Strong results from ARE will signal that the life sciences segment is resilient to macro challenges, while problems with vacancies or declining rents may heighten concerns about office real estate.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, Monday's corporate calendar is sparse for "blue chips." The main focus is on the results from Ryanair – Europe's largest low-cost airline. Ryanair's financial results for the last quarter of 2025 (the third quarter of the company's financial year) will show trends in passenger traffic, flight load factors, and the impact of fuel prices. A successful report from the airline will support stocks in the travel and airline sectors in Europe, signaling continued recovery in travel. Additionally, a report from Swedish industrialist Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insights into global investment demand in the resource and infrastructure markets. Overall, European markets at the beginning of the week will react to the Ifo index and external factors, as major reports from Euro Stoxx 50 companies are concentrated in the latter half of the week.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: In Japan, Monday is not marked by significant statistics, and markets are following global trends. Investors are assessing a moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (December's core CPI eased to approximately 2.4% YoY) and speculating on how this may influence the Bank of Japan's policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just gearing up: major releases from high-tech companies and automakers are expected closer to the end of January and early February. At the start of the week, movement in the Nikkei index may remain within a limited range as local investors await signals from the Federal Reserve and the first results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX / Russia: In the Russian market, a relative calm precedes the annual reporting season. On Monday, large public companies from the MOEX index typically do not publish financial results – major reports for 2025 are expected in February and March. However, operational data from individual issuers for Q4 (e.g., resource production, production metrics) may be released, which could have localized effects on respective stocks. The overall sentiment on the Moscow Exchange that day will be shaped by global factors – oil price dynamics, market sentiments, and the ruble's exchange rate. The absence of internal triggers means that Russian investors will focus on external risk signals and appetite for emerging markets.
Day Results: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- US Orders: The durable goods report will be the main trigger of the day. Watch the core component (capital orders) – confident growth will support the dollar and amplify expectations for a hawkish Fed tone, while weakness could trigger a bond rally and boost the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
- European Economy: The morning Ifo index from Germany will set the tone for trading in the EU. Better-than-expected figures will strengthen the euro and stocks of cyclical companies in Europe (automotive, banking), while a negative surprise will increase demand for safe assets and could pressure the EUR exchange rate, reflecting positively on exporters.
- Corporate Reports: The focus will be on results from industrial leaders and the consumer sector. In the US, releases from Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide benchmarks for the raw materials and construction segments: their margins and forecasts will reveal the state of steel demand. In Europe, the report from Ryanair will illustrate trends in the tourism industry and consumer spending. Investors must assess whether corporate profits justify high stock valuations or if a revision of forecasts is warranted.
- Upcoming Central Bank Meetings: A calm Monday offers an opportunity to prepare for mid-week volatility. On Wednesday, the market anticipates decisions from the US Fed and the Bank of Canada, followed by inflation data from Japan and GDP figures from Europe in the following days. Thus, investors may use the current day for positioning: revisiting hedges, ensuring portfolio diversification, and establishing key risk levels ahead of potential sharp market fluctuations.
