Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, January 5, 2026: PMI, ISM USA, Inflation Turkey

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 5, 2026. Japan's PMI, China's Caixin PMI, Turkey's CPI Inflation, and the US ISM Manufacturing Index, as well as the absence of major corporate reports in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the beginning of the new year in global markets with a series of important macroeconomic publications. In Asia, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases for Japan and China will set the tone for the region's industrial and service sectors. In Europe, the focus will be on inflation levels in Turkey and investor sentiment in the Eurozone, while in the US, a key indicator for the day will be the ISM manufacturing index for December. The corporate agenda for January 5 is relatively calm: the fourth quarter 2025 earnings season has not yet started, so no major publications are expected from companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX. Investors will need to piece together the economic signals received—from Asian demand and commodity prices to Fed rate expectations—to assess the overall market sentiment as 2026 begins.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 03:30 — Japan: Manufacturing PMI index (December, final).
2. 04:45 — China: Caixin PMI indices for services and composite (December).
3. 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
4. 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence Index (January).
5. 17:45 — USA: Final manufacturing PMI index from S&P Global (December).
6. 18:00 — USA: ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (December).

Asia: PMI in Japan and China

Business activity in Asia will kick off the year with the release of the PMI data for December. The final Japan Manufacturing PMI, according to preliminary data, remains below the 50-point threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects continuing weakness in external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilization in domestic demand.

• Japanese Manufacturing PMI – values below 50 signal a contraction in output. A rise in the PMI closer to 50 indicates a weakening of the downturn and may provide support to shares of industrial companies in Japan and adjacent markets.
• China's Caixin Services PMI – expected to be slightly above 50 (previously around 52), indicating continued growth in China's services sector. A slowdown in the indicator compared to the previous month (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while resilient figures will support optimism regarding demand in China. The composite PMI for China will merge the trends in production and services, offering a broader picture of the economy.

The PMI data from Asia will provide investors with signals regarding how the largest economies in the region concluded the year: improved figures could support commodity markets and currencies of emerging economies, while negative surprises may heighten concerns about slowing global demand.

Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics

The year-on-year inflation in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators for emerging markets on this day. It is expected that consumer price growth will slow down to approximately 30–32% y/y (compared to ~31% in November), which will be the lowest level in several years. This slowdown is attributed to the tightening of monetary policy by the new leadership of the Central Bank of Turkey in the second half of 2025.

• Slowdown in CPI – a continued decline in inflation will confirm the effectiveness of recent steep interest rate hikes (the CBRT rate was raised to double-digit levels). Cooling price pressures will enhance expectations that the regulator may move towards a softer policy in 2026, which is positive for Turkish bonds and equities.
• Inflation Structure – investors will analyze which components are driving disinflation. A slowdown in food and energy price growth will alleviate socio-economic tension, while a reduction in core inflation (excluding volatile components) will indicate a sustainable improvement in the situation.
• Market Reaction – particular attention will be given to the Turkish lira and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data may strengthen the lira and support the shares of Turkish banks and companies (on expectations of rate cuts), while an unexpected acceleration in inflation could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets due to fears of further tightening of policy.

Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment

In Europe, there are few major direct releases of macro statistics on Monday; however, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone will be published for January. This leading indicator reflects the financial participants' sentiment regarding the Eurozone economy. In the previous month, the Sentix value was −6.2 (amid falling energy prices and hopes for a soft landing of the economy).

• Sentix Expectations – forecasts imply a slight improvement in sentiment, with a potential rise in the index towards −5…−4. Although the indicator remains in negative territory (indicating a predominance of pessimists), its rise signals a partial recovery in investor confidence in the stability of the Eurozone economy.
• Impact on EU Markets – a moderately positive Sentix could support European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the beginning of the year, particularly for sectors sensitive to the cycle (banks, industry). Conversely, a weak index will amplify defensive sentiment, increasing demand for German bonds and resilient "defensive" stocks.

Overall, the Sentix index will set the tone ahead of more significant data releases in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation estimates in key countries). Investors from CIS countries focused on the European market will consider Sentix as a barometer of the overall market atmosphere in the EU.

USA: ISM Index and the Manufacturing Sector

In the US, the ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index for December will be published – one of the first important indicators of the US economy's condition in the new year. The manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to remain in the 47–49 range (November: 48.2), indicating a likely continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector (values below 50 signal a downturn). However, the markets will look for signs of a change in dynamics in the report – a possible approach to a turning point or a deepening downturn.

• New Orders and Production – key components of the ISM. In the previous month, the new orders index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If in December there is growth in new orders closer to 50, this will be the first signal of industrial revival. A decline will indicate continued soft demand, particularly in export sectors.
• Prices and Inventories – the prices paid sub-index will indicate producer cost trends. A slowdown in raw material and component price growth signals a decrease in inflationary pressure in manufacturing, which is positive for company margins. Data on warehouse inventories and backlog will provide insight into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of demand recovery.
• Market Reactions in the USA – for investors, the ISM index will serve as an indicator of sentiment in the industrial sector, which could influence Wall Street index dynamics. A stronger-than-expected PMI (closer to 50) is likely to support shares of cyclical companies (industry, materials) and simultaneously increase treasury yields (amid reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts). If the index disappoints and declines further, discussions about potential stimulus or rate cuts may intensify – this could weaken the US dollar and lead to a rise in gold prices amidst expectations of soft policy.

It is noteworthy that the final value of the S&P Global PMI for the US will also be released alongside the ISM (manufacturing), but it will have less impact as preliminary figures are already known. Investors will primarily focus on the ISM report and subsequent market reactions—from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.

Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• No Major Quarterly Reports: None of the companies included in the major indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) will publish financial reports on January 5. The earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet begun, so investors are temporarily shifting their focus to macroeconomics.
• US Auto Manufacturers – sales data for December and the entire 2025 year is expected from leading automakers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.). These figures are not traditional profit reports but will provide insight into demand in the US automotive market at year-end, particularly for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales may support auto sector stocks.
• Chinese EV Manufacturers – major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) traditionally disclose delivery data for December in early January. High growth rates in EV sales in China at the year's end will highlight ongoing demand for EVs and may positively impact the shares of these companies on the stock market (as well as on related markets, such as battery manufacturers).
• Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) – the Taiwanese tech giant and key electronics producer (assembler of iPhones) will publish its monthly revenue data. The December report is expected on January 5: investors will look at how strong the year-over-year revenue growth was during the holiday season. Hon Hai's figures serve as a barometer for global demand for electronics and gadgets: an increase in December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics manufacturers, while weak data may temporarily dampen appetite for stocks in the sector.

Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• After the close of US exchanges on January 5, no financial reporting by major US publicly traded companies is scheduled. Investors will use this pause before the earnings season begins to analyze macroeconomic signals and prepare for the influx of corporate news expected to intensify in the second week of January.

Day's Conclusions: What Investors Should Focus On

• 1) PMIs in Asia: Japan and China's business activity indicators will serve as early indicators of global industrial health. Improved PMIs will support commodities and currencies of emerging markets, while weak data will heighten concerns about demand for commodities and exports from Asian countries.
• 2) Inflation in Turkey: a continued disinflation (declining CPI) will strengthen confidence in the economic policy of Turkish authorities and may lead to a rise in prices for Turkish bonds and equities. However, an unexpected inflation spike may cause volatility—weakening the lira and prompting investors to reassess risks in the Turkish market.
• 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (USA): this report may set the direction for the US and global markets. If ISM exceeds expectations, investors are likely to revise forecasts for interest rates (towards a more hawkish Fed), which will be reflected in rising bond yields and support for cyclical stocks. If the PMI disappoints, expectations for policy easing will grow—potentially leading to a correction in the dollar and increased interest in defensive assets (gold, bonds).

In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 offers investors a comprehensive snapshot of economic trends from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will determine the degree of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, moderately positive data may give the markets an upward momentum at the start of the year, while negative surprises will prompt participants to take a more cautious stance, waiting for additional signals from upcoming reports and statistics.