Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, January 5, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Geopolitics, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 5, 2026, draw attention due to an increase in geopolitical tension combined with continued market stability. Central to this focus are the consequences of the sharp deterioration of the situation in Venezuela following a US military operation that led to a change in power in the country. This event has introduced a new level of uncertainty into the oil market, although the OPEC+ group continues to maintain its previous production strategy without increasing quotas. This indicates that global oil supply remains excessive, and until recently, Brent prices have remained around $60 per barrel (almost 20% lower than a year ago, marking the most significant drop since 2020). The European gas market shows relative stability: even in the midst of winter, gas reserves in EU storage remain high, and record volumes of LNG imports are ensuring moderate gas prices. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – by the end of 2025, many countries have reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources and increased investments in clean energy. However, geopolitical factors continue to introduce volatility: sanctions-related challenges surrounding energy exports show no signs of easing, and new conflicts (such as in Latin America) are abruptly altering the balance of power in the markets. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Maintains Course, Geopolitics Increases Volatility
- OPEC+ Policy: At the first meeting of 2026, key countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to keep oil production unchanged, reaffirming their previously announced pause on quota increases for Q1. In 2025, participants increased production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand), but the sharp price drop in autumn prompted cautious action. Maintaining these restrictions aims to prevent further price declines – even though the potential for price increases remains limited given that the global market is well-supplied with oil.
- Supply Surplus: Industry analysts estimate that in 2026, global oil supply may exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day. High production in OPEC+ countries, along with record output from US, Brazilian, and Canadian fields, has led to significant stock accumulations. Oil is piling up both in onshore storage and on tankers transporting record volumes of crude – all indicating market saturation. As a result, Brent and WTI prices have settled in a narrow range around ~$60 per barrel at the end of last year.
- Demand Factors: The global economy demonstrates moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. In 2026, a slight increase in consumption is expected mainly from Asian and Middle Eastern countries where industry and transport continue to expand. However, economic slowdowns in Europe and tight monetary policies in the US are hindering fuel demand growth. A separate role is played by China: in 2025, Beijing took advantage of low prices and actively increased its strategic oil reserves, serving as a de facto “buffer” for the market. However, in the new year, China’s ability to further fill its reserves is limited, making its import policy a crucial factor for oil market balance.
- Geopolitics and Prices: Key uncertainties for the oil market remain geopolitical events. The prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine remain murky, meaning sanctions on Russian oil exports persist and will continue to influence trade. The new crisis in Latin America – the US's military action against the Venezuelan government – has reminded the market that political factors can suddenly restrict supply. Against this backdrop, investors are embedding a heightened "risk premium" into oil prices. In the early days of 2026, Brent prices began to gradually rise from ~$60. Experts do not rule out a short-term spike towards $65–70 per barrel if the crisis in Venezuela prolongs or escalates. Nevertheless, the overall consensus for the year suggests that oil surplus will restrain price growth in the medium term.
Gas Market: Stable Supplies and Price Comfort
- European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high reserves of natural gas. By early January, European underground storage was over 60% full, slightly below last year's record levels. A mild start to winter and energy-saving measures have led to moderate gas withdrawals from these storages, providing a solid reserve for the remaining cold months. These factors are calming the market: wholesale gas prices are maintained in the range of ~$9–10 per million BTUs (about €28–30 per MWh based on the TTF index) – significantly lower than peaks experienced during the 2022 crisis.
- Role of LNG: To compensate for the sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipeline to Europe had fallen by more than 40%), European countries substantially increased LNG imports. By the end of 2025, EU LNG imports had grown by about 25%, mainly due to supplies from the US and Qatar, as well as the launch of new regasification terminals. The steady influx of LNG has helped mitigate the impact of decreased Russian pipeline gas and diversify sources, enhancing Europe's energy security.
- Asian Factor: The balance in the global gas market also depends on demand in Asia. In 2025, China and India increased gas imports to support their industry and energy sectors. However, trade tensions introduced revisions: for example, Beijing reduced purchases of American LNG, imposing additional tariffs, and reoriented towards other suppliers. If in 2026 Asian economies accelerate growth, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments may intensify, creating upward pressure on prices. However, for now, the situation is balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect relative stability to persist in the global gas market.
- EU Strategy: The European Union aims to consolidate its progress in reducing dependency on Russian gas and diminish reliance on a single supplier. The official goal in Brussels is to completely halt gas imports from Russia by 2028. Plans include further expanding LNG infrastructure (new terminals, tanker fleet), developing alternative pipeline routes, and increasing domestic production and biogas generation. Simultaneously, the EU is discussing extending the requirements for filling gas storages for the coming years (minimum 90% capacity by October 1 each year). These measures are intended to ensure a buffer in the event of abnormally cold winters and reduce market volatility in the future.
International Politics: Escalation of Conflicts and Sanction Risks
- Crises in Venezuela: The start of the year was marked by an unprecedented event: the US conducted a military operation against the Venezuelan government. As a result, special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, who faces charges in the US of drug trafficking and corruption. Washington stated that Maduro had been removed from office and that temporary governance would be turned over to US-backed forces. Concurrently, US authorities tightened oil sanctions: since December, a de facto maritime blockade of Venezuela has been in effect, with US naval forces intercepting several tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. These actions have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela: estimates suggest that in December they fell to ~0.5 million barrels per day (down from ~1 million bpd on average in the autumn). Domestic production within the country continues for now, but the political crisis creates high uncertainty for future supplies. The markets are responding with rising prices and a reconfiguration of routes: although Venezuela's share in global exports is small, the stringent US actions send a signal to all importers about the risks of violating sanction regimes.
- Russian Energy Carriers: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding potential easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas has yet to yield results. The US and EU have extended existing sanctions and price caps, linking their removal to progress in resolving the situation surrounding Ukraine. Moreover, the US administration has indicated a willingness to introduce new measures: additional sanctions against companies in China and India that help transport or acquire Russian oil outside the established limits are being discussed. These signals maintain an element of uncertainty in the market: for instance, in the tanker sector, freight and insurance costs for crude of questionable origin are rising. Despite the sanctions, Russian oil and oil product exports remain at relatively high levels due to reorientation towards Asia; however, transactions are conducted with significant discounts and logistical costs.
- Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to impact global energy markets. Tensions remain in the Black Sea region: at the end of December, strikes on port infrastructure were recorded, related to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine. While this has not led to serious disruptions in oil or grain exports through maritime corridors, the risk to trading routes remains elevated. The situation in Yemen has escalated in the Middle East: disagreements among key OPEC participants, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have manifested through conflict involving their allies on Yemeni territory. Although these tensions currently do not hinder cooperation within OPEC+, analysts do not rule out that if contradictions escalate, the unity of the alliance could be threatened. Additional risks have arisen from recent US statements regarding Iran: Washington has threatened military action against the country amid ongoing protests, which could theoretically jeopardize oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Overall, geopolitical instability creates a constant risk premium in the market, compelling market participants to develop contingency plans in case of supply disruptions.
Asia: India and China's Strategies in the Face of Energy Challenges
- India's Import Policy: Faced with tightening sanctions regimes and geopolitical pressure, India is compelled to navigate expectations from Western partners and its own energy needs. New Delhi has not formally joined sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal under favorable terms. Russian supplies accounted for over 20% of India's oil imports in 2025, and the country deems it impossible to immediately sever ties. Nevertheless, at the end of 2025, Indian refineries slightly reduced purchases of crude from Russia due to banking and logistical constraints: traders reported that in December, Russian oil supplies to India fell to ~1.2 million bpd, a two-year low (down from record levels of ~1.8 million bpd a month earlier). To avoid shortages, India's largest oil refining corporation, Indian Oil, activated an option for additional oil volumes from Colombia and is negotiating with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Concurrently, India is securing special conditions: Russian companies offer Indian buyers Urals oil at discounts of ~$4–5 to Brent prices, making these barrels competitive even when accounting for sanctions risks. In the long term, India seeks to increase its domestic oil production: the state-owned company ONGC is developing deep-water fields in the Andaman Sea, and initial drilling results are promising. However, despite efforts to boost domestic output, the country will remain reliant on imports for over 85% of its consumed oil volume in the coming years.
- Energy Security in China: The largest economy in Asia continues to balance between increasing domestic production and rising imports of energy resources. Beijing has not joined sanctions against Russia and has taken advantage of the situation to ramp up purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China's oil imports neared record levels, reaching around 11 million bpd (slightly less than the historical peak in 2023). Gas imports – both LNG and pipeline – also remain high, providing fuel for industry and thermal energy during the economic recovery phase. Simultaneously, China is increasing its hydrocarbon production annually: in 2025, domestic oil production rose to an all-time high of ~215 million tons (~4.3 million bpd, +1% year-on-year), and natural gas production exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5–6% year-on-year). While growth in domestic production helped partially meet demand, China continues to import about 70% of its oil and around 40% of its gas consumption. In a bid to enhance energy security, Chinese authorities are investing in the exploration of new fields, technologies for increasing oil recovery, and expanding strategic reserve capacities. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to increase state oil reserves, creating a "safety cushion" in case of market shocks. Consequently, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – are flexibly adapting to the new environment, combining import diversification with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Record Renewables and the Role of Traditional Generation
- Growth in Renewable Generation: The global shift towards clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries reported record outputs of electricity from renewable sources. The share of renewables in the US electricity generation crossed 30% for the first time, with combined solar and wind generation exceeding output from coal-fired power plants for the first time. China maintains its status as the world's leader in installed renewable capacity and introduced record volumes of new solar and wind power installations last year. Governments of many countries are increasing investments in green energy, network modernization, and energy storage systems, aiming to meet climate goals and take advantage of declining technology costs.
- Integration Challenges: The rapid growth of renewable energy brings not only benefits but also new challenges. The main issue is ensuring the stability of the energy system with a growing share of variable sources (solar and wind generation). The practice in 2025 demonstrated the necessity of reserve capacities: power plants capable of quickly covering peak loads or compensating for decreases in renewable output during unfavorable weather conditions. China and India, despite massive renewable energy construction, continue to bring modern coal and gas power plants online to meet rapidly growing electricity demand and prevent capacity shortages. Thus, at this stage of the energy transition, traditional generation remains critical for ensuring reliable electricity supply. For safe further increases in the share of renewables, breakthroughs in energy storage and digital grid management are needed to integrate even more renewable capacity without risking outages.
Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amid Green Course
- Historical Maxima: Despite the global push for decarbonization, world coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, it surpassed the previous high established the year before, primarily due to increased coal burning in Asia. China and India, which account for two-thirds of global coal consumption, increased electricity generation at coal-fired plants to compensate for variability in renewable output and to meet rising demand. Meanwhile, several developed countries continued to reduce coal use, but a global decline has not yet occurred. The sustained high demand for coal underscores the complexities of the energy transition: developing economies are not yet ready to abandon cheap and accessible coal, which provides essential stability in energy supply.
- Outlook and Transition Period: Global coal demand is expected to start noticeably declining only by the end of the current decade – as larger renewable capacity, expanded nuclear energy, and gas generation come online. However, the transition will be uneven: in certain years, local spikes in coal consumption may occur due to weather anomalies (for instance, droughts reducing hydroelectric generation or severe winters increasing heating needs). Governments are compelled to balance between emission reduction goals and the necessity of ensuring energy security and reasonable prices. Many Asian nations are investing in cleaner coal combustion technologies and carbon capture systems while gradually shifting investments towards renewables. It is anticipated that the coal sector will maintain relative resilience over the next several years before entering a decline in the 2030s.
Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortages and New Restrictions
- Diesel Paradox: By the end of 2025, a paradoxical situation had emerged in the global oil products market: while oil prices were declining, the refining margin, especially for diesel fuel production, had sharply increased. In Europe, the diesel output yield rose about 30% over the year, as demand for diesel remained high while supply was restricted. The reasons include the recovery in transport and industrial activity following the pandemic, reductions in refinery capacities in recent years, and the reshaping of trade flows due to sanctions. The European embargo on Russian oil products has forced the EU to import diesel from more distant regions (Middle East, Asia) at a higher price, while some other countries experienced localized fuel shortages. As a result, wholesale prices for diesel and jet fuel were high at year-end, and retail prices in certain regions were rising faster than inflation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts expect that high margins in the diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline segments will persist, at least for the upcoming months – until new refining capacities come online or demand begins to significantly decrease due to the shift towards electric transport and other types of energy. In 2026–2027, the launch of several large refineries in the Middle East and Asia is anticipated, which should partly alleviate the fuel shortages on the global market. However, tightening environmental regulations in Europe and North America (for instance, requirements on sulfur content and increased excise taxes on traditional fuels) may suppress long-term demand growth for oil products. Thus, the oil products market enters 2026 with a strained balance: supply lags behind demand for certain positions, and any unplanned production cut (for example, due to refinery outages or sanctions) could lead to price surges.
Russian Fuel Market: Continuation of Stabilization Measures
- Export Limitations: To prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending emergency measures introduced in autumn 2025. The government confirmed that the ban on the export of motor gasoline and diesel fuel will remain in effect at least until February 28, 2026. Experts estimate that this measure keeps an additional 200–300 thousand tons of fuel monthly in the domestic market, which were previously sent for export. This has increased the supply at gas stations and helped avoid acute shortages of gasoline and diesel during peak winter consumption.
- Price Stability: The package of measures implemented has helped keep gas station prices stable. Retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia increased only by a few percentage points in 2025, which is comparable with the overall inflation rate. Authorities plan to continue their proactive policy to prevent price spikes and ensure stable fuel supply to the economy. Ahead of the spring field work in 2026, the government continues to monitor the market and is prepared to extend restrictions or introduce new support mechanisms as necessary to ensure that the agricultural sector and other consumers are fully supplied with fuel at stable prices.
Financial Markets and Indicators: Energy Sector Reaction
- Stock Dynamics: By the end of 2025, oil and gas company stock indices reflected the fall in oil prices – share prices of many oil drilling and refining corporations decreased amid declining profits in the upstream sector. Corrections were observed on Middle Eastern exchanges, which are dependent on oil prices: for example, the Saudi Tadawul index fell about 1% in December. Shares of leading international sector companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) also showed a moderate decline by year-end. However, in the early days of 2026, the situation stabilized somewhat: OPEC+’s expected decision was already priced into the market, appearing to investors as a factor of predictability. Against this backdrop, along with rising oil prices due to the Venezuelan crisis, many oil and gas companies' stock prices shifted towards neutral-positive dynamics. If raw material prices continue to rise, shares in the oil and gas sector could receive an additional growth impetus.
- Monetary Policy: Central bank actions affect the energy sector indirectly, through demand dynamics and capital inflows. In several developing countries, monetary policy began to ease at the end of 2025: for example, the Central Bank of Egypt reduced its key rate by 100 basis points to support the economy after a period of high inflation. Easing financial conditions stimulate business activity and domestic energy demand – for instance, the Egyptian stock index rose 0.9% within a week after the rate cut. Conversely, in the leading economies of the world (US, EU, UK), interest rates remain elevated to combat inflation. Tight monetary conditions somewhat dampen economic growth and fuel consumption, as well as make borrowing costly for capital-intensive projects in energy. On the other hand, high returns in developed countries keep some capital on those countries' financial markets, limiting speculative investments in raw material assets and contributing to relative price stability.
- Commodity Exporter Currencies: Currencies of major energy-exporting nations demonstrate relative stability, despite oil price volatility. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and currencies within the Persian Gulf countries are supported by high export revenues. By the end of 2025, amid declining oil prices, these currencies only weakened slightly, as the budgets of many commodity-exporting nations are calculated based on lower prices, and the presence of sovereign wealth funds – particularly stricter currency peg in Saudi Arabia – smooths fluctuations. Entering 2026 with no signs of a currency crisis, commodity economies appear relatively resilient, positively affecting the investment climate within the energy sector.
