Global Oil and Gas Industry and Energy News as of January 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Renewable Energy, Coal, Electricity, Refineries, Commodity Markets, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 concluded for the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) amid conflicting factors: oil prices fell by nearly 20% over the year due to concerns over overproduction, while ongoing geopolitical tensions have sustained demand for 'safe-haven' assets. This combination creates a mixed background for market participants and investors, prompting them to closely monitor the developments. Experts believe that 2026 may see an oversupply in the oil market, exerting downward pressure on prices. However, local factors—such as persistent Western sanctions (including the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russia) and production disruptions due to recent attacks on several refining facilities—are restricting exports and preventing significant price drops, particularly maintaining high margins on diesel fuel.
Trends in gas markets are shifting even more rapidly: Europe is quickly reducing pipeline gas supplies from Russia (with transit through Ukraine effectively ceased by the end of 2025) and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Simultaneously, some Asian countries are realigning their supply routes in response to trade disagreements, decreasing purchases of American LNG due to tariffs on energy products from the US. Meanwhile, global demand for electricity continues to grow rapidly—driven by the boom in data centers, advances in artificial intelligence, and mass electrification of transportation and utilities—stimulating investments in renewable energy and energy storage systems. Additionally, a relatively mild winter in Europe at the beginning of the heating season helps keep gas prices in check and ensures stability in supply, mitigating potential market volatility.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts predict that Brent crude oil will trade in a range of around $60–65 per barrel in 2026. It is expected that total supply will exceed global demand by about 3–4 million barrels per day in the coming months, resulting in increased commercial oil inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: The OPEC+ alliance is refraining from increasing production and is maintaining current production restrictions. The total amount of cuts under the agreement is approximately 3.2 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand).
- Demand: The global economy is generally showing steady growth, leading to further increases in global oil consumption by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. The most significant demand growth is occurring in Asia and the Middle East, while US shale oil production is starting to gradually decline.
- Geopolitics: A potential peaceful resolution to the conflict surrounding Ukraine could dramatically change the balance of the oil market. Lifting sanctions and returning significant volumes of Russian oil to the global market would increase supply and heighten price pressure, while continued restrictions would maintain prices at higher levels.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipeline Supplies: Russian natural gas exports via pipelines to Europe have decreased by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the cessation of transit through Ukraine. Considering that the EU intends to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by 2028, only a few alternative routes (mainly through Turkey) remain for supplies from Russia.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are sharply increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other countries to compensate for the decline in pipeline supplies. Simultaneously, some Asian countries have reduced imports of American LNG due to introduced tariffs; demand for LNG in China and India, on the other hand, continues to grow as these economies seek to diversify fuel sources and enhance energy security.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in the development of gas infrastructure and expanding storage facilities to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to increase until around 2035–2040, reaching approximately 620–650 billion cubic meters per year; this spurs further expansion of national gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Many countries are experiencing record growth in electricity consumption. In the US, annual electricity consumption could exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026, driven by the boom in data centers, the implementation of artificial intelligence, and the active electrification of transportation and the utility sector.
- Share of Renewable Energy: The contribution of renewable energy sources to global generation is steadily increasing. It is forecasted that by 2030, the total installed capacity of 'green' generation will surpass 4.6 TWh (with about 80% of this volume coming from solar power plants). In the coming years, accelerated growth in generation based on wind and solar energy is expected due to government incentives and declining technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) is rapidly gaining momentum. Chinese companies hold leading positions in this area—their exports of lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage grew by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage technologies are also expanding and are projected to exceed $60 billion by the end of the current year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion tonnes by the end of 2025 (0.5% more than the previous year) and is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the decade. This trend will be supported by active growth in renewable, nuclear, and gas-energy capacities, gradually displacing coal from energy balances.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand declined due to abnormally heavy rains and record hydroelectric generation, while in the US, coal usage has increased amid rising natural gas prices. China—the world’s largest coal consumer (its consumption is approximately 30% higher than the combined consumption of other countries)—stabilized consumption in 2025 but is expected to see a decrease in coal's share of its energy balance in the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Governments continue to seek a balance between climate objectives and ensuring energy security. Despite strict regulations focused on decarbonization, the coal industry remains a crucial part of energy provision in several regions, creating uncertainty for investors and complicating strategic planning in the energy sector.
Refining and Oil Products
- Diesel Fuel Shortage: In 2025, the diesel refining margin in Europe increased by approximately 30%, despite a decline in oil prices. This situation is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russian oil. Limited supply of diesel fractions supports high price spreads on oil products.
- New Capacities: The launch of significant new refineries in developed countries is not expected in the coming years, resulting in a structural deficit in the oil products market. Many analysts believe that extremely high refining margins will persist until additional oil refining capacities come online.
- Venezuela: The state oil company PDVSA is forced to accumulate heavy oil residues in tanks due to US sanctions that continue to limit the export of Venezuelan fuel oil and other fuels. This exacerbates the shortage of marine (bunkering) fuel on the global market, particularly impacting countries that rely on supplies from Venezuela.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major oil and gas companies continue to enter into large-scale agreements to develop projects. For instance, the Italian company Saipem secured a $425 million contract to develop the Sakarya gas field in Turkey. British independent company Harbour Energy became the operator of the Mexican oil field Zama (with a resource base of around 750 million barrels) and simultaneously entered into deals worth $3.2 billion for project development in the Gulf of Mexico, significantly strengthening its position in the region.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control over LLOG's assets in the Gulf of Mexico. These deals allowed Harbour to become the operator of two major independent oil and gas projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to influence the industry. In Serbia, the refinery of company NIS (controlled by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary license from OFAC allowing it to maintain operational activities until January 23, 2026. This step enabled the plant to resume operations after being forced to halt due to US sanctions; however, the future of the license remains uncertain.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Trends: The dynamics of stock indices of energy sector companies generally reflect the situation in commodity markets. At the end of 2025, key stock indices in the Middle East declined following the drop in oil prices (for example, the main index in Saudi Arabia fell by approximately 1%), while shares of the world’s largest oil and gas corporations showed moderate declines.
- Monetary Policy: Central banks' decisions directly affect the investment climate. For instance, in Egypt, a reduction of the base interest rate by 100 basis points at year-end prompted a growth in the national stock index by approximately 0.9%, stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures to ease monetary policy are being discussed in other developing economies, which may create more favorable conditions for companies in the fuel and energy sector in the future.
