Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of December 22–26, 2025: LPR Rate in China, US GDP and Inflation, Macroeconomic Data from Europe and Russia, Impact of Christmas and Short Trading Sessions on Global Markets.
Weekly Overview December 22–26, 2025: Key Events and Reports
The upcoming week is shortened due to the holidays, but investors will encounter several important events. In focus is the People's Bank of China's decision on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the final estimate of the US GDP for Q3, the PCE price index (a key inflation indicator in the US), as well as the Catholic Christmas and a new trade agreement between the EEU and Indonesia. The corporate earnings season is nearly over, with no major reports expected from companies in the US, Europe, Asia, or Russia, shifting the focus to macroeconomic statistics and geopolitical news. One significant event will be the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) – a step that reinforces economic ties between Southeast Asia and post-Soviet countries. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions could influence the dynamics of global stock indices – from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 to the Nikkei 225 and the Moscow Exchange index – although market reactions may be muted due to low liquidity during the holiday period. Let’s take a closer look at the events of each day and their potential impact on market conditions.
Monday, December 22, 2025: LPR Rate in China and UK GDP
At the start of the week, attention is focused on Asian and European indicators. Early in the morning, China will announce its decision on the key Loan Prime Rate (LPR), setting the tone for financial conditions in the region. Final GDP data for the UK for Q3 will also be released, providing an assessment of economic growth ahead of the year's conclusion. No significant corporate earnings reports are expected on this day, so market dynamics will depend on macroeconomic news. Additionally, on Monday the news of the signing of the free trade agreement between Indonesia and EEUs will shape the global agenda, underscoring the strengthening of international economic integration.
- 04:15 MSK – China: LPR (Loan Prime Rate) decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged; any unexpected change could impact the yuan, Chinese banking sector stocks, and set the tone for Asian markets.
- 10:00 MSK – UK: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate). Preliminary data indicated moderate economic growth; any revision of the figure may affect the pound's value and FTSE 100 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (for November). The indicator reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy; values around zero indicate moderate growth, while deviations could influence short-term investor sentiment.
- 18:00 MSK – US: PCE Price Index. A key inflation indicator for the Fed; slower price growth will strengthen expectations of soft monetary policy, while accelerating inflation might raise concerns in the bond and equity markets.
Investor Takeaway: Monday starts without major disruptions – economic events are limited, and global markets will likely trade within a narrow range. The decision on the rate in China is expected to reaffirm the current stance of monetary policy, likely not triggering sharp movements in Asian markets. The final assessment of UK GDP is unlikely to surprise investors, serving as a background indicator for the European market. A critical reference will be the PCE inflation index in the US: its moderate dynamics will support a positive sentiment, while an unexpectedly high figure could increase volatility, even amid lower activity ahead of the holidays. The news about the EEU–Indonesia agreement is more strategic and doesn't directly impact market prices in the short term, but highlights the trend of strengthening trade ties in the Eurasian space.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025: US GDP and Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday will be the most data-rich day of the week in terms of macroeconomic statistics, particularly in the US. Investors will receive a comprehensive block of data about the US economy: from the labor market and industry to the final report on economic growth. The spotlight will be on the final estimate of US GDP for Q3, which will confirm or adjust previous growth estimates, as well as figures on durable goods orders and industrial production that reflect the state of the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the December consumer confidence index, which shows household sentiment on the brink of the holidays, will be released. Before the main trading opens, the Asia-Pacific region will process signals from Australia following the publication of the RBA minutes. With no major corporate reports still on the horizon, macroeconomic releases will determine market movements on Tuesday.
- 03:30 MSK – Australia: RBA minutes from the last meeting. The document will clarify the regulator's assessment of the economic situation and inflation; any hints at future rate changes will impact the Australian dollar and market sentiment.
- 16:15 MSK – US: ADP employment change (weekly gauge). An unofficial assessment of the dynamics in the US labor market; stable employment conditions will reassure investors, while an increase in jobless claims or a drop in employment might raise concerns about economic slowdown.
- 16:30 MSK – US: Durable goods orders for November. An important industrial indicator reflecting demand for durable goods (e.g., machinery and equipment). An increase in orders signals business confidence and will support industrial sector stocks, while a decline would suggest caution in capital expenditures.
- 16:30 MSK – US: Housing Starts for November. A measure of activity in the construction sector: an increased number of new buildings indicates a healthy real estate market, while downturns may be construed as signs of an economic cooldown or developer caution.
- 16:30 MSK – US: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate). Confirmation of strong economic growth in the US (around +3% year-on-year) is expected. Any significant revision of GDP growth rates could change market sentiment: stronger growth could spur risk appetite, while a decrease in estimates could raise questions about the sustainability of the economic upturn.
- 17:15 MSK – US: Industrial production for November. The data will reflect the state of the industrial sector. Moderate output growth indicates stability, while a decline in industrial activity could heighten concerns about recessionary tendencies.
- 18:00 MSK – US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December. An indicator of American consumer sentiment ahead of the holidays: increased confidence will support retail stock prices and the overall market, while decreased sentiment may indicate more cautious household spending.
- 18:00 MSK – US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December. A regional leading indicator of industrial activity; strong values will bolster optimism in the manufacturing sector, while weak results will point to localized production problems.
- 00:30 MSK (already December 24) – US: API weekly oil inventory report. Unofficial data from the American Petroleum Institute on changes in crude oil inventories from the past week. A significant drop in inventories may push oil prices up, indicating high demand, while an increase could exert downward pressure on oil prices.
Investor Takeaway: On Tuesday, markets will process a substantial amount of economic information. Strong macro indicators from the US (for example, higher-than-expected GDP growth or an increase in orders) could provide new momentum in the market and support stock index growth while reinforcing confidence in the economy's durability. Conversely, weak data – whether a decline in consumer confidence or a drop in industrial output – could lead to investor caution and asset reallocation into safe havens. The RBA minutes early in the morning will set the tone for the Australian market and for commodity currencies, but the day's primary influence will shift to the American session. Overall, the lack of corporate reports implies that macroeconomic surprises will shape sentiment: positive statistical trends will support risk appetite, whereas a series of disappointing indicators could trigger profit-taking ahead of the long weekend.
Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Bank of Japan Minutes and Unemployment Claims (Christmas Eve)
On Wednesday, the global markets will enter Christmas Eve, leading to reduced trading activity. Several exchanges, including Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, and Argentina, will be closed all day, while in the US, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, trading sessions will be shorter. Nevertheless, reports released on this day can locally influence the dynamics: early in the morning, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes from its last meeting, providing insight into the regulator's sentiment, while during the American half of the day, investors will monitor weekly unemployment statistics in the US and oil inventory data. Additionally, significant economic indicators for Russia for November are expected to be published. In a thin market environment, any reactions to news could be amplified by low liquidity; however, large movements are unlikely due to the proximity of the holiday.
- 02:50 MSK – Japan: Bank of Japan minutes. The “minutes” from the Japanese central bank will unveil details of discussions regarding monetary policy. Investors will seek hints at a possible change in BoJ's ultra-loose stance; any signals regarding plans to adjust policy may impact yen rates and Nikkei 225 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – US: Initial jobless claims (week ending December 20). A weekly indicator of the state of the US labor market, published a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. Stable low levels of claims will affirm employment resilience and bolster confidence in the economy, while a rise in claims could raise concerns regarding labor market cooling.
- 18:30 MSK – US: Official EIA oil inventory data. Weekly statistics from the Energy Information Administration on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories. A sharp reduction in inventories will strengthen oil prices, signaling high demand or reduced supply, while an increase may weaken the oil market. Volatility in the energy market is expected, although many traders have already left the markets ahead of the holiday.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Industrial production for November. This indicator reflects output in the Russian industry. Acceleration in industrial growth will indicate economic recovery by year-end, while weak results may intensify expectations for stimulating measures from the government and the Central Bank of Russia.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: Consumer inflation for November (CPI index). The publication of Russia's inflation level for the month; price dynamics is important for understanding the monetary policy course of the Bank of Russia. Slower inflation will strengthen expectations of policy easing (or rate maintenance), while an unexpected rise in prices may spark discussions on the need for tighter measures to curb inflationary pressure.
Investor Takeaway: Wednesday sees reduced activity and preparations for the holiday break, but several signals will still reach the markets. The Bank of Japan minutes may influence trading in Asia: any hints of policy changes could notably shift the yen's value and Japanese company stocks, although the BoJ has traditionally been cautious. In the US, unemployment and oil data will provide fresh insight into economic conditions: a sharp deterioration in indicators could alarm market participants, but given the pre-holiday mindset, most investors may tend to overlook secondary fluctuations on this day. Russian statistical releases are important locally – they will help assess the health of the Russian economy at year-end; however, the impact on global markets will be minimal. Overall, investors are advised to remain cautious: in a thin market, even minor news might cause disproportionate price movements, and the main strategy for the day will revolve around waiting until the Christmas holidays are over.
Thursday, December 25, 2025: Catholic Christmas (Global Markets Closed)
Thursday marks Catholic Christmas, and the overwhelming majority of global financial platforms are closed. Stock exchanges in the US, Europe (including the UK, Germany, France, and others), as well as a number of markets in Asia and Latin America, are closed due to the holiday. There are no trading sessions on currency, stock, and commodity markets; economic data and corporate report publications are not planned for that day. Investors worldwide take a break, and trading activity is brought to a standstill.
Investor Takeaway: The complete halt of trading on December 25 means the absence of market movements and news. For investors, this day offers an opportunity to step back from the bustle and reassess investment strategies away from market turmoil. It is recommended not to take any action – all key decisions will be postponed until the exchanges resume operations. The Christmas break traditionally serves as a time of low volatility, hence no changes in portfolios are expected on this day.
Friday, December 26, 2025: Boxing Day – Holiday in Europe, Calm Markets
On Friday, global markets gradually return to operation after Christmas; however, in some countries, it remains a holiday. December 26 marks Boxing Day in the UK, Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and others), and many European nations, hence exchanges there remain closed. American markets, alongside exchanges in some Asian countries, operate as usual, but overall activity is still subdued. There are no new significant macroeconomic publications or corporate events scheduled, and investors in open jurisdictions will trade based on previously received information. In a reduced participant environment, small price fluctuations are possible, but without strong fundamental drivers.
Investor Takeaway: The concluding day of the week proceeds relatively calmly and inertly. The reduced number of active platforms leads to low trading volumes and neutral dynamics in key indices. In the US, where markets are open, there may only be local movements influenced by the macroscopic data points of the week – for example, investors might continue reacting to the previously published GDP and consumer confidence figures on Tuesday. However, overall, Friday's session is characterized as technical: major players have already locked in results ahead of the holidays, and few are inclined to open new positions. Investors should pay attention to portfolio balance preservation ahead of year-end: the current pause is a convenient time to assess annual outcomes and prepare for January's volatility. After the weekend, global markets will enter the last week of the year, where movements may occur in anticipation of closing annual books, thus the calm on December 26 can be viewed as a “calm before the storm” ahead of the final days of 2025.
