Current Global Energy Market News and Trends for December 24, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refining and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
On the diplomatic front, negotiations to resolve the protracted conflict in Eastern Europe continue without concrete results. The strict sanctions regime in the energy sector remains unchanged.
The global oil market continues to be pressured by excess supply and weakened demand. The benchmark Brent crude prices remain near $60 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since approximately 2021. This indicates an oversupply of crude oil in the market. The European gas market shows relative stability: even during the peak winter consumption, gas storage in the EU is approximately 67% full, virtually eliminating the risk of shortages. Stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and alternative pipeline fuels keep prices at moderate levels, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, alleviating the burden on consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although traditional coal and gas power plants still play a crucial role in ensuring the reliability of energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, power generation, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Prices and OPEC+ Strategy
The oil market is experiencing downward pressure on prices: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while WTI is at approximately $55. These are the lowest levels in nearly four years. The main reasons for this price decline are:
- Increased supply. OPEC+ countries have ramped up production by millions of barrels per day, creating an oversupply of crude oil and additional pressure on prices.
- Hopes for peace. Progress in negotiations to resolve the conflict has led to expectations of easing sanctions and the return of Russian oil to the market, which is also weighing on prices.
- OPEC+ policy. After months of increasing production, participants in the agreement have decided to halt further supply growth in Q1 2026 to prevent overproduction. At the December meeting, the alliance approved only a symbolic increase in quotas (+137,000 barrels/day). Major exporters state their readiness to cut production again if prices fall below acceptable levels.
Under the influence of these factors, a moderate surplus persists in the global oil market. Even geopolitical incidents and new restrictions cause only temporary price fluctuations, failing to change the overall downward trend. Market participants are awaiting new signals — from diplomatic efforts and OPEC+ actions — that could alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
Europe has entered the winter season relatively confidently: gas storage in the EU is over two-thirds full of its maximum, significantly reducing the likelihood of shortages even during peak demand periods. Additionally, record LNG supplies have compensated for the loss of Russian pipeline gas. As a result, gas prices have stabilized at levels well below the crisis peaks of 2022, noticeably relieving consumer expenses.
- Record LNG imports. In 2025, Europe imported about 284 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas — a historic maximum. The key supplier was the USA (up to 60% of the volume).
- Withdrawal from Russian gas. The European Union plans to completely stop imports of Russian gas by 2027. Starting from early 2026, a ban on purchasing Russian LNG on the spot market will take effect, forcing EU countries to fully switch to alternative supply sources.
Globally, demand for natural gas remains stable, primarily due to Asian countries. However, competition among exporters is intensifying: Middle Eastern and North African countries are actively investing in new LNG projects, aiming to capture market share in the growing sector. Simultaneously, increasing gas exports from the US and Australia are creating an oversupply, keeping world prices in moderate bounds.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth
The year 2025 has been marked by unprecedented growth in "green" energy. According to industry reports, for the first half of 2025, the volumes of newly installed solar and wind power plants increased by more than 60% compared to the same period last year, and for the first time, electricity generation from RES surpassed generation from coal-fired plants (on a half-year basis). However, even record growth is still insufficient to achieve long-term climate goals — further investments and modernization of power grids are required.
Coal Sector: Peak Demand
Global coal consumption in 2025 reached a record volume (growth of approximately 0.5%). A prolonged plateau in consumption is expected, with a gradual decline projected by 2030. Coal remains the largest source of electricity but its share has begun to shrink due to competition from alternative sources.
The regional dynamics of coal demand vary. In China, the largest consumer (over 50% of world volume), coal usage stabilized in 2025; a gradual decrease is anticipated by the end of the decade as RES capacity is introduced. In India, a record hydroelectric generation has led to a reduction in coal burning for the first time in many years, while the US has observed a slight increase in the use of this fuel amid high gas prices and extensions of coal power plant operations.
Oil Products and Refining: High Margins
By the end of 2025, the oil products market is demonstrating high profitability for refineries. Global refining margins (so-called crack spreads) have risen to multi-year highs. The reasons for this include sanctions that have curtailed oil product exports from Russia; the shutdown for repairs of several major refineries in Europe and the US; and delays in bringing new refining capacities online in the Middle East and Africa. Profitability on the European diesel market is particularly high: the refining margin for diesel in Europe has reached levels unseen since 2023.
In response, refiners are striving to maximize the favorable environment. Major oil companies are reporting sharp increases in profitability from refining due to high gasoline and diesel prices. Estimates suggest that European refineries increased oil processing in the second half of 2025 by several hundred thousand barrels per day. Analysts warn that without the introduction of new capacities, fuel shortages may persist, and high margins could extend into 2026.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Markets
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence global commodity markets. Sanction restrictions in the oil and gas sector remain strict and strictly enforced. In December, the US intercepted an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela and increased pressure on the "shadow fleet" transporting Iranian oil. Despite the bans, Iranian exports in 2025 reached a multi-year high due to shipments to Asia. Russian oil and oil products have been completely redirected to alternative markets (China, India, Middle East), but price caps and EU embargoes continue to reduce industry revenues. Additionally, starting in early 2026, the EU will impose a ban on the import of Russian LNG, effectively concluding Europe's energy rift with the Russian Federation.
Against this backdrop, market participants are factoring in increased political risks and price premiums. Any signals of easing sanctions or diplomatic progress significantly influence the market. In the meantime, companies are adapting to new conditions — diversifying logistics and sales channels.
Investment and Projects: Looking Ahead
Despite volatility, significant investments continue to flow into the energy sector, both in the traditional oil and gas complex and in "green" energy. Middle Eastern countries are expanding oil and gas production (for example, ADNOC raised about $11 billion to boost gas production), while leading exporters like Qatar and the US are increasing LNG export capacities. At the same time, global corporations are investing in the construction of new solar and wind power plants, as well as in promising technologies including hydrogen energy and energy storage systems. A wave of new mergers and acquisitions and the launch of large projects in both the traditional segment and the RES sector is expected in 2026.
