Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, December 24, 2025. Christmas Eve: Bank of Japan Protocol, US Jobless Claims, EIA Oil Report, Inflation Data in Russia.
On Wednesday, global markets await Christmas Eve in a mixed mode: some exchanges are closed, while trading hours in the US and certain countries will be shortened to half a day. Nevertheless, significant economic events remain on the agenda. In Asia, investors are monitoring the protocol from the Bank of Japan's latest meeting, which could shed light on the future course of monetary policy following a historic rate hike. In the US, the key release of the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims – a labor market indicator that is published during the pre-holiday period. In the commodities market, attention is focused on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory report, which traditionally sets a short-term tone for oil quotes. In Russia, closer to the evening, industrial production and consumer inflation indicators will be released, helping to assess the state of the Russian economy at the end of the year.
Corporate reporting globally is experiencing a lull: there are no major releases in the US and Europe due to the holidays, while in Asia and on the Moscow Exchange, only isolated results are being published. Investors will need to consider low liquidity and high volatility in the thin holiday market, closely monitoring even secondary data – unexpected deviations can disproportionately affect sentiment.
Macro Economic Calendar (MSK)
- 02:50 — Japan: publication of the protocol from the Bank of Japan's last meeting.
- 16:30 — US: initial jobless claims (week).
- 18:30 — US: weekly oil and petroleum product inventories according to EIA data.
- 19:00 — Russia: industrial production, November 2025.
- 19:00 — Russia: consumer inflation (CPI).
Markets on Holiday: Christmas Closures
- Exchanges with no trading: Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Argentina, and Brazil will be closed on December 24 due to Christmas celebrations.
- Shortened sessions: In the US, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, trading sessions will end around midday (early market closure).
Bank of Japan Protocol: A Perspective Post-Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised markets with a policy tightening at its last meeting, raising the key rate to 0.75% – a three-decade high. The protocol published today will provide investors with detailed insights into the regulator's discussions. It is particularly important to clarify:
- Whether there were disagreements among BoJ board members regarding the rate hike and the assessment of inflation risks.
- If any changes are planned for the yield curve control (YCC) policy amid rising yields and inflation above target levels.
- The BoJ's assessment of the yen's exchange rate and external factors: the protocol may contain hints on how the regulator perceives the impact of a weak yen on the economy and prices.
Any signals regarding the BoJ's future actions will influence the dynamics of the yen and sentiment in the Asian market. So far, the tone of the bank's guidance remains cautious, indicating that future actions will depend on incoming economic data from Japan.
US Labor Market: Jobless Claims in Focus
Weekly initial jobless claims in the US are one of the timely indicators of the labor market's condition. Data from the previous week comes amid the holiday season, when statistical noise traditionally increases. It is crucial for investors to monitor the trend:
- If the number of new claims remains around multi-year lows (~200–230k), it confirms the resilience of the labor market and supports sentiment in the S&P 500 stock market.
- An unexpected rise above expectations may signal hiring cooling and the first signs of unemployment growth. However, a single spike during holiday weeks is often distorted by seasonal factors.
Since the US Federal Reserve focuses on employment sustainability when deciding on rates, even secondary statistics like jobless claims can influence market expectations regarding the regulator's policy – especially with an unexpected deviation from the forecast.
EIA Oil Inventory Report in the US
The US Department of Energy will publish its weekly report on commercial crude oil and petroleum product inventories (EIA). This release traditionally comes out on Wednesdays and can have a short-term impact on WTI and Brent oil prices. Key aspects of the report include:
- Change in oil inventories: A decline in inventories usually indicates strong demand or constrained supply, supporting price increases. Conversely, an unexpected inventory build may signal weak demand or oversupply, pressuring prices.
- Gasoline and distillate inventories: The dynamics of fuel reserves are crucial during the winter period. A reduction in gasoline or diesel reserves amid holiday transportation may fuel rises in energy prices, whereas an oversupply of fuel may exert downward pressure.
Given the approach of year-end, volatility in the oil market may increase in low liquidity conditions. Investors in commodity assets should be prepared for sharp price movements in the event of unexpected EIA data.
Industrial Production and Inflation in Russia
Russian macroeconomic indicators will be released in the evening and will attract particular attention from the local market (MOEX index) and the ruble currency market:
- Industrial Production (November): Industrial production data will clarify the economy's adaptation to sanctions. Moderate year-on-year growth will signal the beginning of the sector's recovery, while a decline will indicate ongoing pressure on the manufacturing sector.
- Inflation Indicators (CPI): Consumer inflation in Russia has shown a slowdown in recent months after a spike earlier in the year. New data will reveal whether the trend of decreasing price growth has been maintained. For the Bank of Russia, which recently lowered the key rate to 16%, continued disinflation will support arguments for further easing in 2026. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may limit further rate reduction opportunities.
The reaction of the Russian stock market and the ruble's exchange rate to these indicators will depend on the degree of deviation from forecasts. Strong results in industry and low inflation could support local companies' stocks and strengthen the ruble, whereas weak figures may heighten investors' concerns regarding the Russian economy's prospects.
Other Regions and Indexes: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- US (S&P 500): No major corporate financial reports are scheduled for December 24 in the US S&P 500 index. Investors will focus on the day’s macro statistics, wrapping up trading early due to the holiday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Christmas holidays in Europe mean there are no corporate releases from Euro Stoxx 50 blue chips. European markets are closed, and their benchmarks will only be shaped by the external backdrop – movements in currencies and commodity prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market (Nikkei 225) is operating normally amid the overall global lull. The Tokyo area continues its quarter results publishing period: for example, the pharmacy chain Kusuri No Aoki Holdings is releasing its financial results on December 24. Though these events are local, they reflect the state of consumer demand in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): On the Moscow Exchange, most companies have already disclosed their third-quarter results, leading to an absence of new corporate reports on December 24. The main annual results of the largest Russian issuers will be published after the New Year holidays, according to the standard reporting schedule.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Low Market Liquidity: The pre-holiday day with shortened sessions and closed exchanges will lead to reduced trading volumes. In such conditions, even small news can provoke disproportionately strong price fluctuations. Investors must be particularly cautious when placing orders and consider potential spikes in volatility.
- Bank of Japan's Policy: Details from the BoJ protocol will indicate how prepared the regulator is to continue tightening policy. If signals for further rate hikes or changes to YCC emerge in the document, this could reflect on the yen's rate and set the tone for trading in Asia.
- US Data: Labor market metrics in the US (jobless claims) will serve as a barometer for economic activity at year-end. Sharp deviations may prompt a reassessment of expectations surrounding the Fed's rate policy and could sway the S&P 500 index, although reactions may be tempered in a shortened session.
- Oil Market: The EIA oil inventory report will be released in a thin market: price reactions to oil may be heightened. Oil volatility could affect commodity currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) and energy sector stocks around the world.
- Russian Macroeconomic Statistics: Indicators of industrial production and inflation in Russia will impact the MOEX index and the ruble's exchange rate. Strong data will support expectations for further rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia and improve investor sentiment, while weak figures may increase caution and pressurize the market.
