Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Tuesday, December 30, 2025: Russia's PMI, FOMC Minutes, US Case-Shiller Index, Oil, and Global Markets. Investor Overview.
Financial markets at the end of the year remain sensitive to macroeconomic news and corporate releases. On Tuesday, the focus shifts to the Russian economy and monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia will set currency rates for the New Year holidays), as well as foreign statistical data: the PMI for services and composite index for Russia (12:00 MSK), the S&P Case-Shiller housing price index in the US (17:00 MSK), and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (22:00 MSK). Additionally, markets will await the API report on US oil reserves (00:30 MSK on January 1). Corporate stories of the day will be complemented by reports from individual companies, while the annual earnings calendar remains almost empty.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 09:00 — Russia: PMI for Services (December) and Composite PMI (December).
- 17:00 — USA: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October).
- 22:00 — USA: Release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
- 00:30 (January 1) — USA: API report on crude oil inventories (for the week).
Central Bank of Russia: Currency Rates
On the last working day of the year, the Bank of Russia will halt currency rates, which will apply throughout the holiday week. A meeting is scheduled for December 30, at which the Central Bank will fix the official rates of the dollar, euro, and yuan for the period from December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026. This move ensures relative stability for the rouble during the holidays, shifting primary risks onto global factors: oil price dynamics and external economic conditions.
PMI Services Index (Russia)
The publication of the services activity indices and the composite PMI will provide insights into the current state of the Russian economy. Preliminary data indicates a slowdown: the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.1 in December (indicating a contraction). With an unfavorable industrial trend, the services sector may only show weak growth or stagnation. Investors will closely monitor these indicators, as recovery in the services sector usually supports the stock market and the rouble, while a prolonged downturn may increase pressure on corporate profits.
US Housing Price Index (Case-Shiller)
At 17:00 MSK, the October figures for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller housing price index will be released. A continued deceleration in growth is expected: the annual increase may be around +1.1% (similar to the previous month). In September, the index showed +1.6% (forecast +1.4%), and in October — approximately +1.1% year-on-year. The slowdown in housing price growth reduces mortgage burdens and eases inflationary pressure. For the markets, this signals that moderate growth rates in real estate facilitate monetary policy easing and support demand in other sectors of the economy.
FOMC Minutes
At 22:00 MSK, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be published. Analysts expect the plan for gradual rate cuts in 2026 to be confirmed. The text regarding the outlook for inflation and the timing of easing will be crucial. Market participants intend to examine the protocols closely for new clues about the pace of tightening or easing. Market reactions could be active: any non-trivial comments regarding inflation and employment will determine the dynamics of the dollar and bond yields.
Oil Inventories (API)
The API report on oil inventories (00:30 MSK) often sets the short-term price dynamics for oil. According to API data, for the week ending December 19, US oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels after a decline of 9.3 million in the previous week. An increase in inventories indicates a slowdown in demand. Investors will closely compare these figures with the official EIA report: any additional inventory build-up may lower oil prices, while an unexpected decline could support prices. Long-term trends are influenced by OPEC+ decisions and global demand, so any signs in the commodity market should be factored into trading strategies.
Corporate Reporting
- USA – OBOOK Holdings (OWLS) – a subsidiary of OwlTing (blockchain platform). After the market closes on December 30, OBOOK will release financial results for the first half of 2025 and hold a conference call (17:00 EST). Investors will assess the company's revenue and profitability against global trends in the technology sector.
- Asia (Hong Kong) – Global Strategic Group Limited (8590.HK) and Capital VC Ltd (2324.HK) will present their annual reports. These companies operate in electronics and finance. Their results may provide insights into the state of Hong Kong's technology and financial sectors, but their impact on global indices is minimal.
- Europe – Due to the Christmas holidays, the corporate calendar is empty. Major European companies have already reported earlier or will do so in January, so no significant surprises are expected in the earnings reports.
- Russia – There are virtually no earnings reports on Tuesday: major issuers have already reported and are preparing for the annual period. The focus is primarily on dividend and operational news, while key indices respond to macro data and external factors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): There is calm in the European exchanges. Fresh economic data is scarce, and trading is sluggish. Investors are looking at global factors (exchange rates, oil, events in Asia), while local factors (Eurozone GDP, ECB) take a back seat.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market may be partially closed or operate on a shortened schedule due to the holidays. Attention is focused on external trends: the yen's exchange rate and commodity prices. Domestic releases are not significant on this short trading day.
- Russia (MOEX): Activity on the Moscow Exchange is minimal. The focus is on oil and the Central Bank of Russia's policies (fixed rates). Energy companies are sensitive to rising oil prices, while the financial sector reflects seasonal conservatism in banking operations.
Daily Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- FOMC and Inflation: The Case-Shiller index and FOMC minutes will clarify the picture regarding inflation and interest rates. Low growth in housing prices (October +1.1% year-on-year) reduces inflationary pressure, allowing the FOMC to ease policy in 2026.
- Rouble and CBR: Fixed rates until January 13 eliminate short-term currency risks. The focus is on oil prices: their increase supports the rouble and the stocks of oil companies, while a fall in oil prices may weaken the national currency and put pressure on the budget.
- Commodities: The API and EIA reports on oil inventories may induce short-term fluctuations. Disappointing inventory data could drag prices down, while unexpected declines may boost oil prices. Precious metal news (for example, silver exports from China) should also be considered, as they can provide additional momentum for the commodities markets.
- Liquidity: The end of the year is characterized by low trading activity. Even small news may lead to significant volatility. Investors should exercise caution, diversify their portfolios, and consider the risk of sudden movements as the year closes.
