Current news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors for Tuesday, December 30, 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewables, coal, petroleum products, and key events in the global energy sector for investors and market participants.
By the end of 2025, the global energy sector is at a crossroads of diverging trends. The oil market continues to be pressured by an oversupply and moderate demand, which limits price growth and leads to a potential decline in rates in 2026. In the gas sector, European countries have almost fully filled their underground storage before winter, stabilizing prices, while the expansion of LNG projects is set to give the market a new impetus next year. At the same time, a surge in investments in renewable energy is changing the balance of demand—wind and solar generation are hitting new records, while global coal consumption remains significant, particularly in Asia. Global politics, including rising sanctions pressure and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, maintains high uncertainty in commodity markets, and major importers (China, India) are actively increasing energy resource purchases, supporting global demand. Thus, the theme of oil oversupply and the transition to "clean" energy sources remains critical for investors and industry participants worldwide.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand
The global oil market continues to experience a trend of oversaturation. Recent OPEC+ decisions (confirmed in November) maintain production quotas at previous levels; however, since spring 2025, the alliance has already increased production by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, trying to regain market share. The increase in supply occurs amid modest demand growth—the IEA estimates global oil consumption growth in 2025 at less than +0.7 million barrels per day, significantly lower than in previous years. Consequently, the long-term balance is shifting towards overproduction.
- Increase in OPEC+ production. Most OPEC+ members have maintained or increased production at this year-end. The absence of new cuts is expected to lead to further increases in global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Softer demand. A global economic slowdown and the effect of last year's high prices are suppressing oil demand. Concurrently, the transition to electric vehicles is accelerating, and energy efficiency is improving, reducing consumption growth rates.
- Geopolitical factors. The intensification of sanctions against Russia (including new US restrictions on the Russian oil sector) partially constrains hydrocarbon exports and causes brief price spikes. At the same time, the stagnation of peace negotiations between the US and Russia maintains uncertainty. The conflict in Ukraine continues to pose risks of disruptions and affects investor sentiment.
As a result, Brent crude remains around $60–62 per barrel (average for December 2025), approximately 15-20% lower than a year ago. Many analysts predict further price declines: if current trends persist, the average Brent price in 2026 could be around $55–60/barrel. Diesel fuel remains a scarce commodity: due to attacks on refineries and restrictions on the export of Russian petroleum products, diesel futures in Europe have shown a steady increase in margins, although the overall surplus of crude oil prevents significant fuel price increases.
Gas Market: High Storage Levels and Supply Diversification
The European gas sector is preparing for winter with record-high storage levels. By the end of December, underground storage across the continent is filled to 85–90% of capacity, significantly exceeding average levels of previous years. This has been facilitated by unprecedented LNG imports compensating for reduced transit from Russia. Consequently, spot prices in Europe have remained moderate: TTF futures are holding around €30/MWh (≈ $9–10 per 1,000 m³), significantly lower than the peaks of 2022–2024.
- Confidence in LNG supply growth. Amid geopolitical risks, Europe is diversifying supply routes: the US and the Persian Gulf have ramped up LNG exports, while Azerbaijan has increased throughput through the "Southern Corridor." Together, these measures have allowed storage facilities to be filled and winter demand to be mitigated.
- Price stability. Thanks to high inventories and moderate demand, gas prices in Europe have remained below last year's levels. The reduction in risk premium is linked to hopes for diplomatic breakthroughs (a potential peace agreement regarding Ukraine), which eases the geopolitical component.
- Diverging trends in Asia and the US. In Asia, LNG prices have dropped to multi-week lows (around $10–11/MMBtu), supported by record global LNG terminal overload and slowing industrial demand in China and South Korea. In the US, however, gas prices have remained above $4/MMBtu due to cold weather and record LNG exports, supporting additional demand.
Thus, the gas market remains balanced: Europe approaches winter with reliable reserves, while strong US exports support global demand. However, the upcoming "LNG boom" (a planned 50% increase in exports by 2030) promises to heighten competition and dilute producer margins in the coming years.
Renewable Energy and the Electric Power Sector
The year 2025 marked a significant breakthrough in the "green" energy sector. For the first half of this year, global generation from wind and solar energy has for the first time exceeded that of coal-fired power plants. This shift was driven by a substantial expansion of solar generation (growing by ~30% compared to the first half of 2024) and steady, albeit moderate, growth in wind energy. Major markets—China, India, and the US—are breaking records in renewable energy capacity installations.
- Record renewable energy growth. China added more renewable energy generation to its grids than the rest of the world combined, which, alongside India, has led to a reduced share of fossil fuels in their energy balance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts more than a two-fold increase in net generation by 2030, with solar panels dominant.
- Decreasing role of coal. Despite the influx of renewables, countries in Asia (India, China) still show high demand for coal, which currently restrains a global decline in its consumption. However, in the US and Europe, the share of coal generation is decreasing: recent weather fluctuations led to a temporary rise in gas and coal demand, but long-term the trend is expected to decline.
- Energy innovations. Oil and gas companies are actively developing low-carbon projects. For example, TotalEnergies has plans to build a synthetic methane production plant in the US (jointly with Japanese partners) and projects for "green" hydrogen (Sinopec in China, with investments in billions of dollars). Large-scale energy storage projects are emerging, and the network of EV charging stations is expanding, supporting transportation electrification.
The electricity and renewable energy sector anticipates a rapid increase in demand: global electricity demand volumes are rising by 4% per year due to the growth of data centers and infrastructure. In the coming months, countries will balance the speed of the "green" transition and energy security, but the ongoing trend to expand solar and wind capacities will inevitably suppress long-term hydrocarbon demand growth.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Remains High
Despite the influx of renewable energy, global coal consumption remains substantial, especially in developing regions. China and India—the leading coal consumers—continue to use it intensively for electricity generation. In the US, coal production in 2025 increased due to rising gas prices and electricity consumption.
- Production stabilization. Major coal exporters (Australia, Indonesia, Russia) maintain high production levels. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the global coal market is currently characterized by moderate prices and sufficient liquidity.
- Imports in China and India. In China, coal imports fell by almost 20% in 2025 compared to the previous year, due to rising domestic production capacities and stockpiling (price factor). In India, however, demand continues to grow, stimulating purchases and investments in the coal industry.
- The role of coal as a transition fuel. Coal remains the foundation of many countries' energy balance. However, as the share of coal generation decreases in developed economies and cheaper alternatives emerge, it is losing some demand. Environmental regulations and competition from gas and renewables provide support.
Thus, the coal market continues to receive support from Asian demand, but its long-term prospects remain uncertain due to the energy transition. Investors are monitoring the balance of supply and demand: currently, Chinese prices have stabilized at low levels and are holding back import volumes.
Geopolitics and Energy Security
International politics continue to exert a strong influence on energy markets. The tightening of Western sanctions against Russia is focused on the oil and gas sector: at the end of December, the US imposed additional restrictions on major Russian oil companies. Moscow has announced a reorientation of supplies to "friendly countries" and is ready to take retaliatory measures.
- The Ukrainian conflict. Efforts by the US and allies to agree on a peace plan remain stalled, maintaining sanctions regimes against Russia. This constrains part of the exports from the RF and affects long-term investment plans in new projects.
- Saudi Arabia and OPEC. Despite calls for market balancing, Saudi Arabia, together with the UAE, has not announced any additional production cuts yet. Their strategic alliances are strengthening, and the prospects for new agreements remain ambiguous.
- Energy policies of other countries. The US is discussing options to legalize oil production on its territory to lower prices ahead of the elections. China and the EU are accelerating clean energy programs, announcing new electrification projects. Important are the free trade agreements (including energy resources) and environmental standards shaping long-term demand.
Overall, high geopolitical tension keeps volatility in commodity markets. Investors are closely watching changes in sanction policies and diplomatic signals (e.g., remarks about China's support and negotiations between the US and RF), as these could either exacerbate the global oversupply (with the lifting of sanctions and an increase in supplies) or intensify market tensions.
Asia: China and India Increase Purchases and Domestic Production
Key Asian players continue to strengthen their positions in the energy sector. China remains the largest importer of oil and gas, purchasing hydrocarbons at attractive prices. In 2025, due to discounts, Russia increased Urals oil supplies to China and is also expanding gas exports. Meanwhile, Beijing is ramping up its domestic production of oil and especially gas (shale gas, coalbed methane), seeking to reduce its reliance on imports.
- Indian demand. India is actively importing both oil and petroleum products from Russia and the global market. Estimates suggest it is gradually changing its supply partners, but is currently unable to sharply abandon Russian energy sources without harming its economy. At the same time, New Delhi is investing in oil and gas exploration and production, including shale projects.
- Chinese strategies. Beijing has not imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports and aims to bolster its resource security through state-initiated strategic reserves. The transition program to electric vehicles is in full swing, but currently lags significantly behind India’s pace due to rapid economic growth.
- Regional role. China and India are the main drivers of global hydrocarbon demand. Their decisions regarding energy sources (e.g., plans for "green" hydrogen, expanding renewable energy networks, and local fuel production) influence global trends. Both markets are also leading buyers of coal and LNG from various regions worldwide.
As a result, Asia provides fundamental support for global demand: ceteris paribus, increased purchases from Russia and competitive local projects ensure Chinese and Indian demand, balancing some of the excess supply from other regions. Investors should note that any policy changes in these countries (e.g., a shift away from Russian supplies or a deepening energy transition) could quickly reset the supply and demand balances.
Conclusions and Forecasts
The results of December 2025 indicate that the global energy sector is on the brink of a turning point. In the coming months, experts predict a continued moderate decline in oil prices (due to rising inventories) and a weak positive trend for petroleum products due to diesel shortages. The gas market may remain divergent: Europe has benefited from abundant reserves and lower prices, while Asia anticipates greater LNG supply. At the same time, the energy transition and geopolitics will play a critical role: investors and companies must prepare for potential volatility spikes depending on the success of “clean” projects and diplomatic processes.
