Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 1, 2026: Increase in VAT in Russia, EU Ban on New Gas Contracts, Cryptocurrency Regulation in Europe and the UK, Global Market Closures, and Key Investor Takeaways.
The start of the year is marked by significant changes in tax policy in Russia and important international events on the energy and financial fronts. While most global markets remain closed due to the New Year holidays, investors should pay attention to several key developments: the European Union imposes a ban on new gas contracts from Russia starting January 1, Sweden lifts restrictions on uranium mining, the UK and EU tighten reporting requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges, and new laws regulating digital currencies are adopted in Central Asia. Furthermore, the VAT rate in Russia will increase to 22%, and preparations are underway to remove the UAE from the offshore blacklist. These factors will shape the agenda in the early days of 2026.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- January 1: Most countries around the world are celebrating the New Year. Due to the holiday season, no significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for this day.
Markets Closed for Holidays
- Exchanges Closed: China, Kazakhstan, the USA, the UK, most EU countries, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, Turkey, and others are closed for the New Year holidays.
- Russian Markets: The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1, while the Saint Petersburg Exchange operates as usual.
Tax Changes in Russia
- From January 1, 2026, the VAT rate in the Russian Federation will increase to 22%. This increase may briefly raise consumer prices and support inflation at the household spending level.
- The Russian Ministry of Finance plans to remove the UAE from the offshore blacklist. This decision should simplify financial operations for Russian companies with partners from the UAE and impact the international investment climate.
Energy Sector: EU Ban on Russian Gas
Starting January 1, the European Union's ban on new contracts for the supply of Russian natural gas will take effect. This move continues the tightening of sanctions against Russia and may lead to rising gas prices in Europe, especially ahead of the heating season. For European countries, this will stimulate the search for alternative energy sources and accelerate the transition to renewable and LNG supplies.
- The ban does not apply to existing contracts but encourages a long-term reduction in Europe's dependence on Russian gas.
- Increased demand for LNG and domestic gas in the EU is expected to heighten volatility in energy markets and alter the strategies of major suppliers.
Sweden: Resumption of Uranium Mining
In Sweden, the ban on uranium mining has officially been lifted as of January 2026. This decision opens up opportunities for the development of the country's nuclear industry, which had previously been constrained by legislation. New licenses will allow for the resumption or initiation of mining activities at uranium deposits, supporting Sweden's plans to diversify its energy sector and reinforce fuel security.
Cryptocurrencies: UK and EU Tighten Reporting
- United Kingdom: As of January 1, cryptocurrency exchanges are required to provide full information about users and their transactions to tax authorities. These measures aim to combat money laundering and tax evasion.
- European Union: A directive comes into effect, requiring cryptocurrency platforms to disclose transaction and client data to national tax authorities. Regulation aims to enhance transparency and control over the circulation of digital currencies in the EU.
Digital Currencies in Central Asia: Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan: A special legal regime has been introduced allowing the use of stablecoins for payments for goods and services. This innovation may stimulate growth in cashless transactions and interest in digital assets in the country.
- Turkmenistan: A new law on virtual assets has been enacted, legalizing mining, the operation of cryptocurrency exchanges, and trading platforms. The document recognizes cryptocurrencies as legitimate assets, opening new prospects for the IT sector and attracting investments.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- United States (S&P 500): American markets are closed on January 1 for the New Year. Major corporations are not releasing reports, and investors are awaiting the start of robust trading activity at the beginning of the week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Major European exchanges are not conducting trades in the holiday atmosphere. The index’s benchmarks are being shaped by external factors—changes in currency exchange rates and energy resource prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): Japanese and many other Asian markets are closed for the New Year holiday. Global political and economic agendas play a central role for Asian indices at the start of the year.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1 due to a public holiday. Current events such as tax changes and geopolitical developments will influence MOEX and the ruble exchange rate once trading resumes.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- Low Liquidity: During the New Year holidays, trading volumes typically decline. In such conditions, even small news can lead to sharp price fluctuations. Investors should be particularly cautious and take heightened volatility into account.
- VAT and Inflation in Russia: The increase in VAT to 22% will impact consumer demand and inflation rates. It is essential to track the Russian Central Bank's response regarding monetary policy in light of the new tax revenues and price pressures.
- Energy Markets: The introduction of the EU's ban on Russian gas increases uncertainty in the energy market. Monitoring price dynamics for natural gas and oil, as well as the response from LNG suppliers, is important.
- Crypto Regulation: The tightening of reporting requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges in the UK and EU may affect liquidity and trust in digital assets. Investors should consider new regulatory risks when engaging with cryptocurrencies.
- Central Asia and Blockchain: The legalization of cryptocurrencies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan creates new opportunities for local IT companies and investors. These changes indicate a growing interest in the region for innovative financial instruments.
Open Oil Market wishes all investors a successful and thoughtful investment journey in the upcoming year of 2026. Stay tuned for updates and remain informed about key events in global markets and the economy.
