Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Petroleum Products. A Global Overview for Investors and Market Participants in the Energy Sector.
Global Oil Market
The price of Brent crude oil at the end of December 2025 held steady at around $60–64 per barrel, showing slight pullbacks after a brief increase leading up to the New Year. Overall, experts note that global oil supply significantly exceeds demand: new volumes from the USA, Brazil, Canada, and other countries are growing faster than consumption, which puts pressure on prices. It is expected that OPEC+ will maintain current quotas without increasing production at their meeting on January 4 to mitigate excessive supply growth.
- Supply: Major producers are ramping up production, leading to an oversupply of oil in the market.
- Political Risks: U.S. actions concerning Venezuelan oil and attacks on tankers are increasing the risk premium in prices.
- OPEC+: At the January meeting, OPEC+ countries are expected to pause in production increases, restraining further export growth.
- Demand: Global demand remains moderate amid economic uncertainty. The increase in consumption in the petrochemical and aviation sectors only partially compensates for declines in other areas.
Thus, despite the fundamental oversupply of oil, current prices are supported by unfavorable geopolitical conditions. As global oil inventories are close to record filling levels and supply issues remain unstable, a significant drop in prices is not anticipated.
Global Gas Market
Natural gas in the global market shows mixed dynamics: European prices continue to decline due to record LNG imports from the U.S., while Asian demand remains tempered by high fuel costs. Gas storage in Europe is over 85%, creating a "safety cushion" ahead of the winter season. In the U.S., wholesale gas prices (Henry Hub) hover around $4 per MMBtu, demonstrating moderate seasonal increases in the cold period.
- Europe: Power generation companies are actively purchasing LNG, with more than half of European import volumes supplied by America, partially offsetting decreased Russian gas deliveries. The excess inflow of fuel leads to falling prices and brings European quotes closer to Asian ones.
- Asia: LNG imports are decreasing due to high prices and moderate economic demand. China, the largest consumer, is ramping up domestic gas production and pipeline imports from Russia and Central Asia, reducing dependence on expensive LNG.
- Local Trends: Compared to the beginning of the year, European gas prices have dropped by about 45%, despite a cold snap. Gas markets are becoming increasingly integrated due to a steady flow of LNG from the U.S.
The growth of LNG export supplies from the U.S. remains a key factor: record offers are pushing out more expensive imports and stabilizing gas prices in Europe and Asia, making gas markets interconnected and less susceptible to seasonal shocks.
Fuel Markets and Petroleum Products
The situation in the petroleum products markets is characterized by a cautiously bullish sentiment. Global refinery maintenance campaigns and drone strikes on Russian refineries are constraining the supply of diesel and gasoline, thereby supporting high margins. Global refineries are operating at nearly maximum capacity; many companies plan to increase refining to take advantage of favorable price differentials between crude hydrocarbons and products.
- Market Demand: Daily gasoline and diesel consumption remains stable, but some regions are experiencing fuel shortages at gas stations.
- Reforming: The autumn-winter maintenance season has impacted key refineries in Europe, the U.S., and China, supporting high prices for petroleum products despite the excess of raw materials.
- Refinery Margins: Diesel spreads have risen to four-year highs amid intense competition for limited supplies and strong demand for transportation and industrial fuel.
- Russia: The Russian government has extended the temporary export ban on gasoline and diesel until the end of February 2026 to curb price increases in the domestic market and eliminate local fuel shortages.
Thus, fuel markets remain volatile: growing refining activity can smooth price peaks, but export restrictions and local logistics disruptions will maintain pressure. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring news from refineries and fuel stock reports, as these factors will dictate near-term trends in the petroleum products sector.
Electricity Sector and Renewable Sources
The global electricity sector continues to transition to low-carbon technologies. By the end of 2025, the share of generation from renewable sources has again set records: in many countries, solar panels and wind turbines have produced the maximum energy output for the year. Analysts note that global capacity for new renewable installations has significantly increased compared to the previous five-year period, with energy storage systems (ESS) being implemented for network stability. The outcomes of the COP30 climate summit reinforce the commitments of the global community to enhance "clean" generation.
- Growth of Solar Energy: Asian and Middle Eastern countries have built dozens of gigawatts of new solar parks, and Europe has streamlined procedures for approving such projects.
- Wind Generation: Average annual wind output has increased in Europe and China: in certain regions (e.g., Northern Europe), wind power plants have provided record electricity output.
- Energy Storage: Investments in large battery systems are rapidly increasing, allowing for the smoothing of fluctuations in wind and solar generation and reducing reliance on fossil reserves during peak hours.
- Hybrid Energy: To maintain the balance of renewable generation, countries are constructing new nuclear power plants and modernizing existing reactors, considering nuclear power a key element of sustainable transition.
Energy companies are expanding their renewable project portfolios: many traditional oil and gas giants have announced significant investments in wind and solar power plants, as well as hydrogen projects, reflecting a long-term shift in industry priorities. Experts emphasize that for a successful transition, active upgrades of electrical networks and infrastructure development are needed; otherwise, the rapid growth of "clean" generation may be limited by technical barriers.
Coal Sector
Coal markets are showing mixed dynamics. In developed countries, demand for coal continues to decline due to accelerated decarbonization and the replacement of coal-fired power plants with gas and renewable sources. However, in Asia, particularly in India and some Southeast Asian countries, coal consumption remains high due to the need to ensure base load. Analysts expect worldwide coal consumption to stabilize or decline slightly after record growth in 2025.
- Developed Markets: In Europe and the U.S., many coal-fired power plants have been decommissioned or switched to gas, and U.S. coal exports are declining.
- Asia and Middle East: Rapid industrial growth in China, India, and other countries maintains high demand for coal, despite efforts to transition to alternative sources.
- Prices and Trade: After rising in the first half of 2025, coal prices have stabilized at moderate levels. Chinese coal purchases abroad remain a significant factor for Australia and Indonesia.
Thus, the coal sector is undergoing a redistribution phase. While coal retains its role as a backup source during peak demand periods, investment trends are gradually shifting towards "clean" technologies, reflecting the prospects of long-term energy transformation.
Market Outlook and Forecasts
The majority of analysts expect that during the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will remain at moderately low levels. According to expert estimates, the average price of Brent at the beginning of the year will be around $55 per barrel, despite potential short-term fluctuations. The price of U.S. gas (Henry Hub) may rise to ~$4.30 per MMBtu in the winter of 2025/26, but then revert to around $4 as demand stabilizes. Electricity consumption is expected to continue growing by 1–2% annually in developed countries, supported by an increasing share of renewables. Global coal consumption is projected to be lower in 2026 than in the previous year.
- Oil: An oversupply is expected at least until the summer of 2026, which will continue to suppress prices unless OPEC+ returns to quota reductions.
- Gas: Further growth in LNG exports from the U.S. will keep prices low in Asia and Europe, although the winter demand peak may temporarily increase quotes.
- Electricity: Increased renewable generation will gradually reduce dependence on fossil sources. Energy companies continue to invest in expanding "clean" generation and upgrading networks.
- Investments: Energy companies plan to diversify their assets: growth in investments is expected in renewable projects, hydrogen initiatives, and the development of new fields.
Overall, energy markets are entering 2026 with moderate optimism: the balance of supply and demand is currently supporting relative price stability. However, any significant changes in geopolitics or economic activity could quickly alter trend directions. Investors continue to closely monitor news from the sector and reports on global energy inventories, which will be key guiding factors in the coming months.
The Open Oil Market team wishes all readers a Happy New Year 2026 and success in their endeavors in the fuel and energy markets!
