Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, January 16, 2026: US Industrial Production, Inflation in Russia, Baker Hughes Oil and Gas Data, Earnings Reports from Major Public Companies. Investor Overview.
Friday concludes a busy macroeconomic week. US stock indices are reaching new highs, European markets are aiming for growth, and Asian trading is proceeding calmly after the holiday season. The focus for investors is on key economic reports. This evening, the data on US industrial production for December will be released, which experts will use to assess economic trends and inflation risks. At 19:00 MSK, the Central Bank of Russia will publish its consumer inflation data for December. The energy sector will receive signals from the weekly Baker Hughes report regarding the number of active drilling rigs. Major companies are focusing on their financial results, with several large banks set to report this week in the US.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 10:00 — Germany: final consumer price index (CPI) data for December (month-on-month).
- 16:15 — Canada: number of building permits for new homes in December.
- 17:15 — US: industrial production for December and capacity utilization rate.
- 19:00 — Russia: consumer price index (CPI) for December (year-on-year).
- 20:00 — US: weekly Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs (oil & gas).
US Industrial Production
The industrial production index reflects activity in the manufacturing sector and is an important indicator of economic health. Sharp fluctuations in this index can affect expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If industrial production shows acceleration, this may increase the risk of further rate hikes. A weak result, on the other hand, could bolster sentiments for a more dovish policy. Investors should pay attention to the divergence between industrial output declines and the state of the services sector, as this signals overarching trends in the US economy. Additionally, data on capacity utilization will indicate whether there is a surplus or shortage of production resources.
Consumer Inflation in Russia
CPI data for Russia is traditionally viewed through the lens of the Central Bank's interest rate decisions. In December, inflation may show a decrease following the holiday season spending, but it is still expected to remain at a double-digit level. If the annual price growth exceeds expectations, this will increase pressure on the ruble and diminish the pace of monetary policy easing. Investors should monitor discrepancies between core and overall inflation figures, as well as trends in food and service prices. These numbers will largely determine the trajectory of the Central Bank of Russia's interest rate in the upcoming months.
Oil and Gas Sector: Baker Hughes Report
The weekly Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs serves as an indirect indicator of future oil supply. A reduction in the number of drills in the US suggests a potential decrease in production, thereby supporting oil prices. Conversely, an increase in drilling activity may raise concerns about market oversupply. Investors will focus on the number of rigs in the US and the Permian region, while also considering the overall dynamics of international energy demand. Changes in the rig count frequently accompany corrections in Brent and WTI prices.
US Corporate Reports
- PNC Financial (PNC): a major regional bank in Pennsylvania. Reports 4Q2025 results: focus on net interest margin growth and credit portfolio quality amid elevated rates.
- Regions Financial (RF): one of the leading southern banks in the US based in Alabama. The report will highlight the macroeconomic impact on deposit rates and lending volumes within the regional economy.
- State Street (STT): a significant provider of custodial services and asset management headquartered in Boston. Results will reflect the state of global equity markets and the volume of inflows into investment funds.
- M&T Bank (MTB): a regional bank in New York, focusing on private and corporate clients. Key metrics will include margin income trends and reserves for potential loan defaults.
Corporate Reports from Europe and Asia
No significant financial releases from major companies are planned for January 16 in Frankfurt and London. Analysts expect the European earnings season to commence later in January, primarily from banks and manufacturers. In Asia, the week ends with a smooth recovery of liquidity after public holidays: markets in Japan and China are open on Friday, though there are no major announcements from Nikkei 225 or Shanghai Composite constituents. The coming week may bring the first reports from Asian giants; however, global investors are currently focused on the US banking sector.
Russian Companies: Operational Results
- Aeroflot (AFLT): the national airline published operational data for December. In the past month, international traffic increased (~+9% YoY in passenger turnover), while the domestic market contracted (~-3%). For 2025, the group's passenger traffic amounted to approximately 55.3 million people, nearly on par with the previous year, indicating a recovery in international routes amidst modest domestic demand.
- Major Russian exchange-listed issuers (in the oil, gas, and financial sectors) are not providing reports on January 16. Reports from Sberbank, Gazprom, and other leaders in the MOEX are expected by the end of January or February. Currently, the dynamics of ruble-denominated assets are influenced by external factors (oil prices, the dollar).
Investor Takeaways
- Inflation and Interest Rate Dynamics. US industrial production data will provide additional signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s trajectory: accelerating production growth could tighten monetary policy, while weak data could create grounds for softer approaches.
- Russian CPI and Ruble. If the annual inflation growth in Russia exceeds expectations, this could weaken the ruble and necessitate a delay in reducing the key interest rate, as the national currency reacts to New Year and seasonal price effects.
- Oil and Commodities. The Baker Hughes report could revise expectations for oil supplies. A reduction in rigs implies constrained production, which supports Brent prices in the long term. Investors should monitor WTI and commodity trends.
- Corporate Sector. The performance of US banks (PNC, RF, STT, MTB) will set the tone for the financial sector. Positive reports may drive bank shares higher, while issues could trigger sell-offs. Attention should be given to credit portfolios and interest margins.
