Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 16, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, Key Events, and Trends in the Global Energy Market.
At the beginning of 2026, global oil and gas markets are showing signs of increasing supply alongside persistent volatility. Oil prices remain moderate despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while demand for hydrocarbons is tempered by slowing economic growth. Simultaneously, significant attention is drawn to the rapid expansion of wind energy, solar generation, and the development of other "clean" energy sources. Investors and market participants are closely analyzing the balance between excess fossil fuel supply and the extensive transformation of the energy sector.
Global Oil Market
- In January 2026, exchange prices for oil are holding in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel for Brent (WTI around $58–60). A sharp price drop (-3%) over the last week was triggered by a softening of the White House's rhetoric towards Iran: statements about possible non-interference by the USA sharply lowered expectations of supply disruptions and eased market tensions.
- Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the oversupply continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Oil production in the USA, Canada, and Latin America is reaching record levels, shifting the balance towards excess. Experts predict average Brent prices of around $55–60 in 2026, citing risks of further declines. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average annual price of Brent for 2026 is expected to be around $56/barrel.
- OPEC also confirms growing demand: the January report forecasts a rise in global oil consumption in 2026 to 106.52 million barrels per day (+1.38 million b/d compared to last year). Despite this, at the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, quotas remained unchanged as the cartel aims to balance the market without drastic cuts.
- European regulators continue to apply pressure on supplies from Russia: as of February 1, 2026, the price cap on Russian oil is lowered to $44.1 per barrel, which is below the current Urals price (~$39). Concurrently, the White House is actively exercising energy sanctions: the USA has already sold its first batch of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million, with the proceeds frozen in overseas accounts (primarily in Qatar).
- Global refineries are responding to the surplus: many oil refineries are reducing their processing of excess crude, and governments are forced to adjust fuel policies. For instance, discussions are taking place about introducing quotas on gasoline exports in Russia to prevent domestic fuel shortages. In Europe and Asia, the export of oil products is rising, reflecting a balance between energy resources and clean energy.
Global Gas Market
- The European gas market is experiencing a new crisis due to winter cold spells. In mid-January, the spot price at the TTF hub exceeded $387 per 1000 cubic meters—a rise of over 11% since the beginning of the week. A deficit in wind generation (with wind contributing approximately 15% to consumption compared to 20% year-on-year) has escalated the demand for gas-fired power plants.
- European storage facilities are filled to a record-low level: as of January 13, stock levels were only about 52% of capacity. Due to a significant shortfall of pipeline gas (transit from Russia through Ukraine has been halted), EU countries have dramatically increased LNG imports: in 2025, there were 109 million tons of LNG delivered (+28% compared to 2024). In January 2026, around 9.5 million tons of LNG is expected (+18% year-on-year) to meet winter needs.
- In Eastern Europe, significant changes are also taking place. Ukraine has increased its gas imports by approximately 20% (to 30 million cubic meters per day) via Slovakia and Poland, compensating for halted transit and declining domestic production. Turkey and Southeast European countries are negotiating to increase supplies from Azerbaijan and the USA for diversification purposes.
- Meanwhile, Russia is diversifying its export routes: Gazprom has delivered 38.8 billion cubic meters of gas to China through the Power of Siberia in 2025, surpassing total supplies to Europe and Turkey. This reflects a shift in demand geography: Asia is increasing long-term purchases of Russian gas amidst the growth of renewables.
Electricity and Renewable Sources
- Renewable energy continues to experience rapid growth. In 2025, China introduced record capacities in wind and solar generation—over 300 GW of new solar and 100 GW of wind power. This enabled clean electricity generation to outpace demand growth and led to the first-ever reduction in coal-fired power generation (see below).
- The growth of renewables occurred against a backdrop of overall electricity consumption increase, yet the trend is clearly tilted towards "green" generation. Many countries are ramping up investments in solar and wind: new auctions for the construction of solar and wind power plants in Europe and Asia are being offered for hundreds of megawatts of capacity annually.
- Interesting developments are also taking place in the nuclear sector: Germany is reassessing past decisions and intends to return to nuclear power. Chancellor F. Merz described the 2022 phase-out of nuclear energy as a "strategic mistake" and announced plans to construct new nuclear reactors to ensure the stability of the energy system.
- Overall, the share of non-carbon generation is increasing. The pace of introducing hydropower, geothermal, and biomass capacities, as well as energy storage development, is accelerating. This enhances competition with traditional sources and creates favorable conditions for lowering electricity prices in the long term.
Coal Energy and Climate
- For the year 2025, a historical trend has been observed: the generation of coal-fired power plants in China and India has simultaneously decreased for the first time. In China, coal production fell by approximately 1.6%, while in India, it dropped by 3.0% compared to 2024. Such a decline was last recorded in 1973.
- The drop in coal demand is linked to record growth in renewables and a slowdown in economic growth. In China, rapid development of solar and wind capacities fully compensated for the rise in electricity consumption, resulting in the first-ever simultaneous decline in coal generation in both leading coal-producing countries.
- As a result, the global energy structure is shifting: the share of coal generation is decreasing, positively impacting greenhouse gas emissions. This is critical for meeting climate commitments made by many countries and mitigates the risk of energy shortages, thereby restraining the rise in global electricity prices.
Oil Products and Refineries
- The balance in the oil products market reflects the phenomenon of surplus fuel. Many countries are experiencing elevated gasoline and diesel prices due to low inventories and high logistics costs in 2025. Refineries are cutting processing of excess crude oil, while regulators are implementing new measures: for instance, Russia is considering quotas for gasoline exports to prevent domestic fuel shortages.
- In the European Union, on the contrary, some refineries are refocusing on exporting fuel to developing countries. The inventory levels of oil products in EU countries remain unstable due to the harsh winter, thus increasing the likelihood of further adjustments in the fuel market as the economy recovers. Strong demand in Asia is supporting prices for fuel oil and diesel, stimulating investments in additional capacity for fuel storage and processing.
Global Energy Policy and Deals
- The policy of sanctions and alliances continues to shape the market. The European Union has lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1/barrel, while the USA has intensified pressure: the U.S. Treasury has extended the license for operations with foreign assets of Lukoil, effectively softening sanctions against the oil company.
- Serbia and Hungary are preparing an intergovernmental agreement in the energy sector: plans are underway to construct a 113-kilometer oil pipeline, Novi Sad – Aldyo (with a capacity of 5 million tons/year), as well as to expand cooperation in electricity and gas supply (for example, reserving gas capacities). This is part of regional initiatives aimed at diversifying supplies.
- On the international stage, collaborations concerning LNG and pipelines are increasing. China and Southeast Asian countries are finalizing long-term contracts for LNG from the USA and Qatar, while Russia is promoting new gas routes (Central Asia–China, and the prospective 'Nord Stream - 3') to secure customers in Asia and Europe.
Forecasts and Investments
- Analytical agencies point to a dual nature of prospects. On one hand, OPEC forecasts an increase in oil demand (+1.38 million b/d in 2026), but fundamental factors indicate oversupply in the market. According to EIA data, Brent could "drop" to approximately $56/barrel in 2026, and the oversupply will lead to a buildup of global inventories.
- On the other hand, the investment flow into clean energy is strengthening. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, despite a temporary slowdown in job growth, global investments in wind and solar projects in 2026 will continue to experience record growth. Interest in hydrogen energy and energy storage is also increasing: corporations are allocating new funds for the development of storage systems and "green" hydrogen.
- Investors are recalibrating portfolios: oil and gas companies are increasing their R&D spending in the areas of renewables and energy efficiency, while Western funds are gradually reducing investments in hydrocarbons. The stock market is seeing interest in shares of "green" startups and renewable projects, which may prospectively adjust the balance of supply and demand in traditional energy markets.
