Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings on January 24, 2026. US Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, Business Activity Indicators (IFO in Germany, Durable Goods Orders in the USA), as well as Quarterly Results of Companies from the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Saturday provides a breather for the markets, but investors are already gearing up for a busy business week ahead. At the center of attention is the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the outcome of which will set the tone for bond yields and the dollar's exchange rate. In Europe, the focus will shift to business climate indicators: on Monday, the IFO index for Germany will be released, reflecting the sentiment of businesses in the largest economy in the region. Simultaneously, fresh data on durable goods orders in the US will signal the state of the industrial sector.
On the corporate front, earnings season continues as American industrial, financial, and technology companies announce their results for the fourth quarter, joined by European leaders in retail and transportation, along with select Asian corporations. It is crucial for investors to compare macro and micro signals comprehensively: central bank policies ↔ yields and currencies ↔ commodity prices ↔ earnings forecasts ↔ risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:30 — Germany: IFO Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 — USA: Durable Goods Orders (December).
US Federal Reserve: Rate Decision Expectations
- The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week, and investors are hoping for signals regarding the future trajectory of interest rates. If the Fed keeps the rate unchanged, attention will shift to the rhetoric in the statement and press conference: any hints towards easing policy later in the year could support the stock market, while indications of maintaining a "hawkish" stance may increase treasury yields and pressure on high-risk assets.
- The key metric for the Fed remains core inflation in the US, the dynamics of which will determine the tone of their comments. A decline in inflationary pressure will bolster expectations of a pause or even a rate cut in the future, while persistently high inflation will compel the regulator to maintain a tight policy. The Fed's decision will directly impact the dollar's exchange rate and, through the "yields - dollar" connection, the valuation of tech stocks and gold prices.
Bank of Canada: A Signal for Global Rates
- The Bank of Canada will also announce its interest rate decision in the coming days. It is expected that the regulator will keep the rate at current levels, considering inflation stabilization and economic slowdown. However, investors will pay close attention to the accompanying statement: a dovish tone from the Bank of Canada could indicate an approaching rate cut cycle, setting a benchmark for other central banks in developed countries.
- The reaction of the Canadian dollar and the bond market to the meeting's results is crucial not just locally but globally. Sharp fluctuations in Canadian bond yields may, through arbitrage, transfer to the US and European markets. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's policy serves as a benchmark for several commodity currencies; a softer tone could support sentiments in emerging markets and oil prices.
USA: Durable Goods Orders
- The December report on durable goods orders will indicate whether industrial demand has recovered at the end of the year. Previously, the indicator decreased amid volatility in the aviation sector; the new data release will provide insight into investment demand dynamics in the US manufacturing sector.
- Particular attention is given to the component of orders excluding defense and aircraft goods—so-called core capital goods orders. An increase in this indicator would signal a revival in business investments, which is positive for the stock market and for the S&P 500 industrial sector. Conversely, if the statistics indicate a decline in orders again, it may heighten concerns regarding economic slowdown and influence expectations for the Fed's next steps.
Europe: IFO Index in Germany
- The IFO business climate index is a leading indicator reflecting the sentiment of around 9,000 German companies. The publication for January will show how businesses assess the current state and outlook for Germany's economy at the beginning of the year. In previous months, the index has remained at lower levels, indicating caution among firms amid high resource costs and weakened external demand.
- An improvement in the IFO value may signal that the European industrial downturn is hitting bottom: positive expectations from German businesses could support the euro and the stocks of cyclical companies in the Euro Stoxx 50. Conversely, further deterioration in the indicator will intensify recession fears in Europe, reinforcing investors' protective sentiment and interest in German government bonds as a "safe haven."
Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Europe)
- Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) — the largest low-cost carrier in Europe. Key focus: passenger traffic during the winter season and flight load forecasts for 2026. Improvements in the financial performance of the Irish airline could indicate a recovery in tourism activity and support sentiments in the airlines sector.
- Bank of Hawaii (BOH) — regional bank in the US. Key metrics: inflow/outflow of deposits amid changes in interest rates, net interest margin (NIM), and quality of the loan portfolio. BOH’s results will provide a local snapshot of the banking sector's condition: stable margins and low defaults will calm investors, whereas a decrease in profitability or an increase in reserves for potential losses may revive concerns about regional banks.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) — steel production company (S&P 500). Focus: steel shipment volumes and price dynamics of metal products. Management comments regarding demand from the construction and automotive sectors will serve as a barometer of industrial activity. Strong results from STLD, along with growth forecasts, could support the entire metallurgical sector.
Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)
- Nucor Corp. (NUE) — largest steel producer in the USA. Key indicators: operating profitability in changing steel prices, plant utilization, and capital expenditure forecasts. As an industry leader, Nucor sets the tone for the entire metallurgical sector: an optimistic report from the company could bolster confidence in industrial stocks, especially amid large-scale infrastructure projects in the USA.
- SoFi Technologies (SOFI) — fintech platform providing banking and investment services. Key for investors: growth in the customer base and the volume of issued loans, as well as progress towards profitability. High revenue growth rates and reduced losses could increase risk appetite in the fintech sector, while weak results may raise doubts about the sustainability of SoFi's business model.
- W.R. Berkley (WRB) — major player in the insurance market (property & casualty). Key points: claims payout levels, premiums trends, and investment income from reserve placements. Insurance companies are sensitive to the interest rate cycle: increased income from investments amidst high rates can offset rising loss ratios. WRB’s results will provide insight into the health of the insurance sector and sentiments of corporate clients.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: As of January 24, there are few major corporate reports in Europe, so macroeconomic expectations will set the market tone. Investors are monitoring how the data releases (IFO from Germany) and the ECB's monetary policy outlook will impact European stocks. The dynamics of the consumer sector and luxury industry remain in focus: later in the week, LVMH will report, and the market will assess demand for luxury goods.
- Nikkei 225 / Asia: Japan's third financial quarter earning season is ongoing; soon, results from several industrial and technology companies, including automotive and electronics manufacturers, will be released. In China, investors are preparing for the publication of official PMI indices anticipated at the end of January—these data will signal the recovery of the Chinese economy and may affect commodity markets and currencies of emerging countries.
- MOEX / Russia: There are no significant reports from the Russian corporate sector during this period—the peak annual reporting period for the largest companies in the Russian Federation traditionally arrives in March–April. Nevertheless, some issuers are publishing operational indicators: trade networks may share preliminary sales data for the holidays, and oil and gas companies may report production statistics for 2025. These point releases could provide benchmarks for the local market, though global influence remains limited.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Monetary Policy: Statements from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will be the main drivers of the week. Any surprises (for example, a softer tone from the Fed or an unexpected move by the Bank of Canada) could lead to a reconfiguration of rate expectations and, consequently, sharp movements in bond and currency markets.
- Macroeconomic Data: The combination of US statistics on durable goods orders and the European IFO index will set the initial backdrop for trading. Strong figures from both the US and Germany will bolster hopes for a "soft landing" for the global economy, whereas weak reports will intensify recession discussions. Market reactions to these indicators will show how much investors are currently focused on data and sensitive to economic signals.
- Corporate Earnings: Focus is on results from industrial giant Nucor and several financial companies. Successful reports could shift focus from macroeconomic risks to corporate growth stories—especially if companies not only exceed earnings forecasts but also provide confident outlooks for 2026. Conversely, disappointments in earnings may remind investors that high rates and costs are pressuring business margins.
- Risk Management: Ahead of important events, it is prudent to maintain caution. Investors should pre-define the volatility ranges at which they are ready to reconsider positions. Employing stop-loss orders, diversifying assets across currencies and sectors, and hedging key risks will help navigate a potentially turbulent week with smaller losses.
