Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Thursday, January 29, 2026

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macroeconomic Statistics from the US, Eurozone, and South Africa, as well as Earnings Reports from Major Public Companies Worldwide. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday sets a busy agenda for global markets. Central bank decisions from Brazil and South Africa regarding interest rates will reveal the sentiments of regulators in emerging markets amidst inflation dynamics. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence indices and inflation expectations will be released, accompanied by a series of corporate reports from large companies in the region. In the US, the key event of the day will be the financial results of technology giant Apple and payment system Visa (released after market close), while throughout the day investors will analyze weekly data on the labor market and trade balance. The energy sector will be paying attention to the US natural gas inventory report due to the winter season. It is essential for investors to evaluate all signals in conjunction: the dovish tone of central banks in emerging markets ↔ bond yields and EM currency dynamics ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in stock markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central bank interest rate decision.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer confidence index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer inflation expectations index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision.
5. 16:30 — USA: Initial jobless claims (week).
6. 16:30 — USA: Trade balance (November).
7. 18:00 — USA: Volume of industrial orders (November).
8. 18:30 — USA: Natural gas inventories (week, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Decisions by the Central Banks of Brazil and South Africa

• Brazil: The central bank (Copom) is likely to keep the rate at around 15%, the highest in the last 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4-5% year-on-year), but remains above the target, prompting the regulator to maintain a hawkish tone. Markets will look for hints of easing policy: many expect a signal for the start of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to decline. Any change in rhetoric could impact the exchange rate of the real and the value of Brazilian assets.
• South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank's meeting is taking place against the backdrop of inflation nearing the new target of 3%. In December, consumer prices rose by +3.6% year-on-year, while the rand strengthened toward the end of 2025. The regulator in South Africa has already initiated a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision is a careful choice between a pause (keeping the rate around 6.75%) and a minor cut of 0.25%. Analysts are divided evenly in their forecasts. A softening of policy would support economic growth and the local stock index, but some committee members may prefer to wait for additional data (new CPI, national budget in February) for confidence. Investors will be closely listening to comments from the SARB head: signals regarding further rate cuts could stimulate demand for South African bonds and influence the exchange rate of the rand.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will release the consumer confidence index for January. The indicator is expected to remain in negative territory (around -13 to -15 points), reflecting a persistently cautious sentiment among households in the Eurozone. With consistently low unemployment and declining inflation, a moderate improvement in sentiment would strengthen hopes for sustaining consumer spending. However, the deep negative reading of the index indicates that Europeans are still inclined toward a savings model, which could hinder retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: At the same time, consumer inflation expectations will be revealed. In December, expectations for the coming year and beyond decreased to around ~4%, which is within the permissible range around the ECB's target. If the January survey shows a further decline in expected inflation, this would be a positive signal for the European Central Bank – trust in the management of price pressures is growing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations could bolster the ECB's hawkish stance. The results of the index will impact the euro and sentiment in European markets: lower expectations could support European stocks amid hopes for a dovish monetary policy.

USA: Labor Market and Industry

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly initial jobless claims figure in the US remains around multi-year lows (~200-210 thousand claims). This confirms the resilience of the labor market: American employers are not rushing to lay off staff even amid rising Federal Reserve rates. If new data for the week ending January 24 shows numbers below ~220 thousand again, investors will strengthen their opinion on the economy's robustness. However, an increase in claims above expectations could signal the beginning of a labor market softening, which could in turn impact Fed policy.
• Trade Balance (November): Data on US foreign trade for November will help assess the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$29 billion – its lowest level since 2009, thanks to a sharp rise in exports (including gold) and a reduction in imports. If the trend of maintaining the deficit at a low level continued in November, this would support projections for a positive contribution from foreign trade to economic growth. Conversely, an expanded deficit may indicate a recovery in domestic demand (increased imports) and a weakening support from exports. Special attention should be given to the dynamics of exports of industrial products and energy resources, as well as the import flows of consumer goods ahead of the holiday season.
• Industrial Orders (November): The report on the volume of new industrial orders (Factory Orders) will show activity in the US manufacturing sector at the end of the year. An increase is expected after a decline in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: it was previously reported that orders for durable goods surged by ~5% month-on-month in November amidst a large volume of aircraft contracts. An increase in orders signals sustained investment demand from businesses, which is positive for manufacturers (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). Conversely, disappointing orders would indicate caution among companies in a high-rate environment and could amplify discussions about the risk of an industrial recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• The US Department of Energy's weekly EIA report will present data on natural gas inventories for the past week. Currently, gas stocks in storage are declining seasonally due to winter heating demand. Analysts' forecasts anticipate a significant draw – possibly around 120-150 billion cubic feet for the week, which is comparable to long-term averages for the end of January. If the actual reduction in gas stocks exceeds expectations, this could lift natural gas prices in spot markets (especially in the US and Europe). Conversely, a moderate draw or mild weather that restrains demand could lead to further declines in gas prices. Energy sector traders will closely monitor whether current stocks are sufficient for the remainder of winter and whether there is a risk of fuel shortages.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): The Asian tech sector is setting the tone in the morning – the two largest memory manufacturers reported strong results for Q4 2025. Samsung Electronics reported record operating profit, almost tripling year-on-year amidst a boom in AI-related demand and recovery in the semiconductor market. SK Hynix also returned to profitability after a downturn the previous year, benefiting from increased prices of memory chips (DRAM/NAND) and revived data center orders. Investors are assessing Korean companies' comments on demand prospects for 2026: the continuation of the 'chip cycle' on the rise would support the global tech sector, whereas warnings about market saturation or price declines could dampen appetite for semiconductor stocks.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): The American defense giant will present its report before the US market opens, highlighting Q4 results and those for the full year of 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global growth in military budgets and demand for high-tech weapons (F-35 fighter jets, missile defense systems, etc.) are driving an increase in the order portfolio. Investors will focus on the size of the contract backlog and management's forecast for 2026. Key points include margin levels and cost management amid inflation, as well as comments on supply chains. Stable or exceeding expectations metrics at Lockheed Martin will support the entire defense sector, whereas a weak forecast may trigger profit taking on defense stocks that have risen over the past year.
• Mastercard (MA): One of the world's leading payment systems will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Sustainable profit growth is expected amid high transaction volumes: the holiday sale season and increasing tourist flow (cross-border payments) should support revenue. Investors will analyze gross dollar volume trends, growth in processed transactions, and segment metrics (e.g., B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends are also significant – is there a decline amid higher interest rates and prices? Any signals from Mastercard about slowing activity or rising costs (e.g., due to new security technologies and competition) may impact shares of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector.
• Honeywell (HON): The industrial conglomerate from the Dow Jones index will present its quarterly results and forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business – from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital segments. Revenue growth is expected, especially in the aerospace segment, given the high demand for aircraft parts and maintenance amid the recovery of passenger transportation. Investors will also scrutinize orders in the automation and climate equipment sectors (the impact of industrial modernization projects and 'green' initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimization, so markets will keep an eye on operating margin levels. If Honeywell confirms a confident forecast for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), it will strengthen confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, on the other hand, may heighten concerns about economic slowdown.
• Caterpillar (CAT): The global leader in construction and mining machinery will report before trading begins. Caterpillar serves as a barometer for global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. Results are likely to reflect high sales of construction equipment in North America (due to infrastructure projects in the US) and steady demand for mining equipment (supported by high commodity prices in 2025). Attention will focus on the dynamics of orders from China and developing countries: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions could impact Caterpillar's Asian sales. Additionally, investors will assess finished goods inventories and order sizes (book-to-bill) to understand if excess inventory is building up among dealers. A strong report from Caterpillar with a positive demand forecast will signal resilience in the global economy, while cautious comments (e.g., on rising rates pressuring builders) may dampen enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Apple (AAPL): The climax of the day – Apple's earnings report for Q1 2026 fiscal year (fourth calendar quarter of 2025) will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results for the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at the end of the year. Focus will be on iPhone 17 sales and particularly on dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of demand slowing or price pressure there will be scrutinized. Additionally, Apple continues to bet on growth in its services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media) – an acceleration in service revenue growth improves the business's margin profile. Key metrics for iPad and Mac sales after periods of decline, as well as the success of new products (e.g., mixed reality headsets, if launched) will be crucial. Margin performance will be under close scrutiny: the company has previously warned about the impacts of a strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple exceeds profit expectations and provides a confident forecast, this will support the entire tech sector and could push the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher. However, even slight disappointment (e.g., weak sales forecast or margin compression) could trigger significant volatility and profit-taking waves in tech giant stocks.
• Visa (V): The leading global payment network will also report after the close of the US market, presenting results for Q1 2026 fiscal year. Investors view Visa, like Mastercard, as an indicator of global consumer spending. Robust revenue growth is expected, fueled by an increase in payment volumes and transactions. There is particular interest in cross-border transactions data, which reflect international tourism and online shopping: 2025 saw a rebound in travel, which may positively affect Visa's fees. Management will likely highlight the impact of macro factors: inflation (which increases nominal payment volumes), interest rates (which may restrain credit spending), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will evaluate Visa's forecast for 2026: maintaining double-digit profit and revenue growth rates will be a reassuring signal. Any mentions of slowing consumer activity, tightening regulation (e.g., capping fees), or technological risks could lead to short-term declines not only in Visa's shares but also across the financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, January 29 is packed with corporate reporting from blue-chip companies. Several heavyweights in the Euro Stoxx 50 index will present reports, including SAP (the largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for example, strong results from SAP in the cloud business or a positive profit forecast from Roche could support the Euro Stoxx 50's growth, while disappointments in banks or industry may heighten investor caution. Additionally, statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will influence the retail and financial sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will balance between internal factors (company reports) and external backgrounds (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, and later – tech reports from the US).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Asian region, attention will be on corporate news from Japan. Major Japanese manufacturers have reported quarterly results: for example, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (a global leader in industrial automation) have reported profits. The trends they showcase are vital for understanding the state of the industry: an increase in orders for equipment and electronics indicates healthy capital investments in the economy. If Japanese companies report results better than expected, the Nikkei 225 will gain support, especially in the electronics and machinery segments. Additionally, investors in Asia will consider reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: success from Korean chipmakers could positively impact the stocks of Japanese component suppliers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors, such as the stable yen and news from China, will complete the trading picture in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): On the Russian market, January 29 has no financial reporting publications from leading issuers, so the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange index will primarily depend on external factors. The Asian session in the morning will set the mood (response to Brazil/South Africa decisions and Samsung reports), and in the afternoon – the situation on European exchanges. Additionally, oil and gas prices will have an impact: after the EIA data on energy inventories, volatility in the oil and gas sector may occur. The ruble remains relatively stable due to high oil prices and exporter foreign exchange sales, making the currency factor neutral for the stock market. The absence of internal drivers means that investors on the MOEX will focus on the overall market conditions: a rise in risk appetite in global markets could push the index up, while negative signals from external platforms (such as a drop in the Nasdaq after Apple's report) may induce cautious sentiment and profit-taking among local participants.

Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

1. Central Banks EM: Are Brazil and South Africa signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? A dovish tone would support risk demand in emerging markets (bonds, stocks), while unexpected 'hawkish' notes could locally strengthen currencies (real, rand) and temper appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple – A Tech Benchmark: Apple's report and forecast will set the tone for the tech sector globally. Strong sales and an optimistic forecast will provide a positive impetus for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak numbers could trigger tech sell-offs. Investors need to evaluate how consumers are responding to Apple’s novelties and whether growth in more profitable services continues.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: The results from Visa (and Mastercard in the morning) serve as indicators of global consumer demand health. Increased transaction volumes and travel will confirm economic resilience despite high borrowing costs. However, if payment companies notice signs of spending slowdown, this could amplify concerns regarding a decline in global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: The bulk of reporting in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will show regional profit dynamics. Better-than-expected releases will give momentum to local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, confirming that businesses are adapting to new conditions. However, a series of weak reports could heighten volatility and shift investor focus to safe assets.
5. US Macroeconomic Data: While the market is used to weekly statistics, a sudden surge in jobless claims or a sharp change in trade balance/orders could impact expectations regarding Fed policy. Investors should watch if the trend of 'soft landing' for the economy persists: low layoffs, healthy production, and balanced trade will bolster confidence, while negative surprises will amplify discussions about recession risks.