Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Friday, January 9, 2026: US Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Germany

In-Depth Review of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings on January 9, 2026. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Brazil, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, and Company Results from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Friday shapes up to be a busy news day for global markets: in Asia, attention is focused on China's inflation data, which will indicate the state of domestic demand. In Europe, the dynamics of Germany's industrial production will reflect the health of the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. The key driver of the day will be the release of the December U.S. labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), which could significantly influence Fed policy expectations and investor sentiment. Additionally, consumer sentiment indicators and housing activity in the U.S. are set to be released. On the corporate side, the new earnings season kicks off as several major companies from the U.S., Europe, and Asia report their results, providing initial guidance on business profits at the start of 2026. Investors need to assess these disparate data points in aggregate while tracking their interconnections: U.S. labor market ↔ Fed policy ↔ bond yields ↔ dynamics of stocks and commodities.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
2. 10:00 — Germany: Industrial Production for November.
3. 15:00 — Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
4. 16:30 — U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls (December).
5. 16:30 — U.S.: Unemployment Rate (December).
6. 16:30 — U.S.: Housing Starts for October.
7. 18:00 — U.S.: Consumer Inflation Expectations (January, preliminary).
8. 18:00 — U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (January, preliminary).
9. 21:00 — U.S.: Baker Hughes Report on Active Drilling Rigs.

Key Points to Watch in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

• The pace of job creation and unemployment dynamics is the primary benchmark for the Fed. An unexpectedly strong hiring growth would heighten expectations for further policy tightening (pushing down bonds and stocks), while weak data would ease market tones.
• The growth of average hourly earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressure from the labor market. A speeding up of worker earnings could alarm markets and enhance hawkish sentiments, while a slowdown in wage growth would support hopes for a pause in rate hikes.
• Market Reaction: Treasury yields and the dollar's exchange rate will react sensitively to the U.S. report. Rising yields typically pressure high-tech stocks and gold, while a weak release may weaken the dollar and provide momentum for equity indices.

Inflation in China and Brazil

• China: CPI dynamics near zero indicate weak domestic demand. December data will show whether deflation risks persist in the Chinese economy. Low inflation bolsters expectations for additional stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China and impacts commodity markets through potential demand reductions from China.
• Brazil: Yearly inflation slowed to around the target 4% by the end of 2025, thanks to the Central Bank's tight policies. Another CPI decline in December opens the door for further monetary easing in Brazil. This data is crucial for investors in emerging markets (EM), influencing bond and currency rates in the region.

Europe: Germany's Industry Under Scrutiny

• Germany: November industrial production dynamics will reflect the state of the key manufacturing sector for Europe. A continued decline would signal ongoing challenges in German exports (automotive, machinery), while unexpected growth could indicate a gradual stabilization of the Eurozone's largest economy.
• Market Impact: Strong data from Germany would support the euro and stocks of cyclical companies (DAX, Euro Stoxx 50). Conversely, disappointing statistics could strengthen pessimistic sentiments in European markets: investors may shift into defensive assets, while ECB expectations become softer.

U.S.: Housing Market and Consumer Confidence

• New housing developments: Housing Starts figures (even published with delays) reflect activity in the U.S. real estate market. Weak data on new home permits may indicate the impact of the Fed's high rates on the construction sector, while growth in this indicator would suggest sustained demand for housing despite expensive loans.
• Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January will show household sentiment at the year's start. An increase in the indicator and a decline in inflation expectations would strengthen confidence in consumer spending, while a fall in sentiment could signal risks for retail sales and the economy overall.

Earnings Report: Before Market Open (BMO, U.S., Europe and Asia)

• Constellation Brands (STZ) — an American alcohol producer. Focus: growth in beer sales amidst increased holiday demand, operating margin dynamics, and an updated forecast for the financial year (considering cost inflation and consumer trends).
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) — the largest pharmacy chain (Dow Jones index). Key: same-store sales in the U.S. and the U.K. for the holiday quarter, progress in cost-cutting initiatives, and pharmacy business optimization. Investors will evaluate margins in drug retail and management's comments regarding prospects for 2026.
• TSMC (TSM) — Taiwanese semiconductor giant, reports revenue for December. These figures effectively preview Q4 results: sales growth will indicate recovery in global chip demand (AI, automotive, electronics), while a sales decline will heighten concerns over slowing technology cycles.
• J Sainsbury (SBRY.L) — one of the leading British retail chains. Will present results for the Christmas quarter (Q3). Attention: dynamics of comparable store sales in food categories, the effect of inflation on purchasing patterns, and potential adjustments to the annual profit forecast following the holidays.
• Yaskawa Electric (6506.T) — a Japanese leader in robotics and industrial automation. Reports for Q3 of the 2025 financial year. Important metrics: volume of new orders for robotic systems (especially from automotive and electronics), business profitability, and any changes to the annual forecast. Yaskawa's results set the tone for the Asian tech sector.

Earnings Report: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)

• No major corporations are scheduled to report after market close on January 9. Only a few small and mid-cap companies (e.g., Anixa Biosciences in biotechnology, RCI Hospitality in the entertainment sector) will provide their quarterly results, but their outcomes are unlikely to impact the broader market.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: As of January 9, there are no significant earnings releases from key Eurozone companies, so the tone for European markets will be set by macro news and external factors. Investors are monitoring reactions to statistics from the U.S. and China, as well as early trading reports from British retailers (e.g., Sainsbury’s) to assess consumer demand in the region.
• Nikkei 225 / Japan: The quarterly earnings season begins in Tokyo. Publications from companies like Yaskawa Electric and other manufacturers provide early signals for the Japanese market. Strong results will support the Nikkei 225, especially tech and industrial sector stocks, while weak data may heighten investor caution. Additionally, the yen's exchange rate and Bank of Japan policy remain background factors for the index's dynamics.
• MOEX / Russia: After the New Year holidays, the Russian market returns to activity, but there are no significant corporate earnings reports on January 9. The peak for the annual financial earnings announcement from large Russian issuers traditionally falls in February-March. Thus, in the short term, the Moscow Exchange mainly focuses on external signals — oil prices, global risk appetite, and currency dynamics.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• 1) U.S. Labor Market: December Nonfarm Payrolls (along with the unemployment rate) are the main trigger of the day for markets. Special focus is on wage growth; a hot labor market could lead to rising yields and pressure on stocks. It is not surprising if indices and currencies experience sharp fluctuations following the report's release.
• 2) Inflation Trends: Data from China and Brazil help assess global pricing pressure. Low CPI in China intensifies dovish sentiment, while moderate inflation in Brazil confirms the situation's manageability in emerging markets.
• 3) Europe: Statistics from Germany will clarify how confidently the EU enters the new year. Improvement in figures would support Euro Stoxx 50 and the EUR exchange rate, while weakness would heighten expectations for ECB policy easing.
• 4) Corporate Reports: Results from Constellation Brands, Walgreens, Sainsbury’s (and further reports of the day) will provide insight into demand and margins across various sectors — from consumer goods to retail. Additionally, data from tech companies in Asia (e.g., TSMC) may shift investor focus from macroeconomics to individual industry stories.
• 5) Risk Management: The day is packed with events, and volatility spikes are possible. It is advisable to predefine risk levels and use limit orders and hedging tools to protect portfolios.