Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, December 22, 2025 Global Markets, China’s Interest Rate, UK GDP

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for December 22, 2025. PBoC Rate Decision, UK GDP, Hong Kong Inflation, and Reports from Various Companies in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday opens a shortened pre-holiday week in global markets. The agenda is relatively moderate; investor focus is on the monetary policy decision from the People's Bank of China and final economic data from the UK. The Asian session reacts to the interest rate decision in China and fresh inflation figures from Hong Kong, while Europe’s attention is on the revised UK GDP for Q3. In the US, macro statistics are limited to secondary indicators, and activity in stock markets may remain subdued ahead of the release of more significant data on Tuesday. Investors from the CIS should consider the low market liquidity ahead of the holidays and the possible increase in volatility with unexpected news.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:15 – China: PBoC’s decision on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR).
2. 08:30 – Hong Kong: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November).
3. 10:00 – UK: Q3 2025 GDP (final estimate); Current Account balance (Q3).
4. 12:00 – Spain: Trade balance for October.
5. 13:00 – Ireland, Finland: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).
6. 16:30 – Canada: Raw Materials Price Index (November).
7. 16:30 – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI, November).
8. 17:00 – Mexico: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).

Asia: PBoC Rate and Inflation

• PBoC (China): The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the LPR at 3.00%. The pause in the monetary easing cycle is attributed to signs of economic stabilization and moderate inflation in China. Any unexpected rate change or comments from the regulator could impact sentiment in Asian markets: a rate decrease would support stocks and commodities, while maintaining the current rate is already priced in.
• Hong Kong (CPI): Consumer inflation in Hong Kong for November will signal the demand status in one of Asia's financial hubs. Predictions suggest moderate price growth in the range of 2-3% y/y, reflecting stable household spending. A slowdown in the CPI index could indicate reduced price pressure and give monetary authorities room to support the economy, while accelerating inflation would support a cautious stance in monetary policy.

Europe: Final UK GDP Data

• UK (Q3 GDP): The final growth estimate for GDP in Q3 2025 is due for publication. Preliminary data indicated that the UK economy grew by only +0.1% q/q, pointing to stagnation amid post-pandemic slowdown and the effects of the Bank of England's rate hikes. Confirmation of weak growth or a downward revision could heighten expectations for a softer policy from the regulator in 2026 and put pressure on the pound. Conversely, if the revision indicates stronger growth, it would bolster sterling and market sentiment in UK stocks.
• Current Account Balance: Simultaneously, the UK’s payment balance for Q3 will be released. A persistent current account deficit underscores the vulnerability of the pound—high deficit (relative to GDP) indicates the economy's reliance on external investments. Investors will assess whether the deficit has narrowed amidst a revival in exports and tourism. A lower deficit would support GBP, while an expanded imbalance could weaken the currency's positions.
• Other European Statistics: Spain's trade balance for October will reflect export dynamics amid a slowdown in the Eurozone. Additionally, the publishing of producer price indices in Ireland and Finland will provide insights into cost trends across different parts of Europe. Overall, these indicators are unlikely to have a substantial influence on the market but serve as a backdrop to assess inflationary processes within the EU.

USA: Indicators Amid Pre-Christmas Calm

• Chicago Fed Activity Index: The composite Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI) for November reflects the overall dynamics of the US economy across 85 statistical indicators. In the previous month, the NAI was around zero, indicating medium-term growth rates. If the index significantly falls into negative territory, it could signal a budding slowdown in the US economy at year-end. However, markets are likely to respond cautiously as the indicator has limited impact, overshadowed by upcoming publications on Tuesday.
• US Markets: American investors enter the session without major reports or first-tier data. In the pre-Christmas period, low volatility and trading volumes are likely. Market participants will focus on external signals—commodity price movements, news from China and Europe—as well as position themselves in anticipation of important releases the following day (such as US GDP statistics and durable goods orders on Tuesday). Specific corporate updates and technical factors may draw attention, but substantial drivers for unilateral index movement are not expected on this day.

Corporate Reports: Before Market Opening (BMO)

• AAR Corp (AIR) – an American aircraft maintenance company. Investors expect commentary on demand for aviation development and maintenance: an increase in order volume from airlines and the military sector could boost the stock price. Management forecasts on profitability amid rising costs and interest rates are also critical.
• Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a Japanese clothing retail chain (retail, approx. $5 billion market capitalization). The company will report for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Key metrics include comparable sales (LFL) in retail, revenue trends amid fluctuating consumer demand in Japan, and margin trends against the backdrop of yen fluctuations and import costs. The results from Shimamura will provide signals regarding the state of the consumer sector in Japan towards the year-end.

Corporate Reports: After Market Closing (AMC)

• Noteworthy releases after the main session will be absent. The corporate calendar in the US for this day is virtually empty—large companies in the S&P 500 indices completed their reporting season earlier. Investors do not anticipate significant surprises from publicly traded companies on Monday evening, contributing to a relatively calm news backdrop.

Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500 (USA): There are no quarterly report releases from well-known issuers in the major American index on December 22. Many market leaders (FedEx, Nike, Oracle, etc.) reported in the previous week; thus, participants’ attention shifts to macroeconomic factors. The dynamics of S&P 500 on this Monday will likely be determined more by the external backdrop—situations in China and Europe—and overall risk appetite ahead of the holidays, rather than by corporate news.
• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No financial report publications are scheduled among the blue chips of the Eurozone on Monday. European markets are focusing on data from the UK and the overall state of the EU economy. As the year ends, investors assess macro statistics (e.g., Spain's trade balance) and monetary signals, influencing movements within sector indices. The absence of major corporate events means external factors (EUR/GBP exchange rates, oil prices) could bear more impact on sentiment in Euro Stoxx 50.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese index continues reporting results from companies with non-standard fiscal years. The focus is on releases from retail and industrial representatives. Specifically, a notable report of the day will be from the Shimamura store chain, reflecting consumer activity in Japan. Overall, however, market activity in Japan is declining as the year ends, and investors are analyzing previously released Q3 reports, preparing for the new season in January.
• MOEX (Russia): The corporate reporting season on the Moscow Exchange is virtually concluded; no large public companies are reporting financial results on December 22. Some issuers are holding dividend councils and closing shareholder registers (for example, **Polyus**, **Ozon**, **Diasoft**—the last day for receiving dividends); however, these events are already priced in by the market and do not substantially influence index dynamics. The Russian market is more likely to follow the external backdrop and commodity prices amid nearly complete absence of internal reporting drivers.

End of Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

• Monetary Policy in China: The People's Bank of China's LPR decision is the key factor for the morning. Its outcomes will set the tone for the Asian session and may reflect on commodity markets. Investors should monitor the reaction of the yuan and the Australian dollar as risk appetite indicators in emerging markets after the PBoC’s announcement.
• UK Indicators: Final GDP data for the UK and associated reports (current account balance, investments) will provide important benchmarks regarding economic condition ahead of the weekend. Any deviations from expectations could impact the sterling and market sentiment in Europe—especially in the UK’s banking and consumer sectors.
• Thin Market Ahead of Holidays: The pre-Christmas week is characterized by reduced liquidity, as many participants take a pause. In such conditions, even single large orders or news can lead to disproportionately sharp price movements. Investors are advised to remain cautious: place limit orders, avoid excessive risks, and be prepared for short-term bursts of volatility in a thin market.
• Absence of Corporate Drivers: A sparse corporate reporting calendar means market fluctuations on this day will predominantly be determined by macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Investors may take this pause to reassess their portfolio ahead of the new reporting season in January, focusing on fundamental company indicators without the pressure of fresh quarterly results.
• Preparation for Key Events of the Week: Although Monday is relatively calm, significant data releases from the US are expected on Tuesday (second estimate of Q3 GDP, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index), alongside the RBA meeting minutes in Asia. Investors should outline their strategy in advance of this flow of information to respond quickly to potential macro backdrop changes. Given the shortened sessions on December 24 and the public holiday on December 25 across many exchanges, risk management and position balancing at the start of the week are particularly relevant.