Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 22, 2025: Oil, Gas, LNG, Renewable Energy, Coal, Petroleum Products, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Complex. Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
The global fuel and energy complex is undergoing significant transformations, closely monitored by investors and market participants. Oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels in four years amid oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty. Europe enters winter with comfortable natural gas reserves (storage levels above 90% capacity) due to record LNG imports, stabilizing the market and gas prices. At the same time, the energy sector is rapidly transitioning to renewable sources: 2025 saw a record increase in renewable energy generation, putting the coal industry on the path to gradual demand decline. Below are the key news and trends in the fuel and energy complex as of December 22, 2025.
Oil Prices and OPEC+ Strategy
The oil market is witnessing a price decline: Brent crude is holding around $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level since 2021. The primary reasons include concerns over oversupply and seasonal demand dips at the start of the year. In response, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to a slight increase in production for December (+137,000 barrels per day) and decided to halt further production increases in the first quarter of 2026 to prevent oversupply. Additionally, new Western sanctions against major Russian oil companies have created further uncertainty regarding Russia's export capabilities.
- Supply Increase: Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually raised production (a total of ~2.9 million barrels per day), leading to an oversupply scenario in the market under stable demand conditions.
- Seasonal Factor: The beginning of the year is traditionally characterized by lower oil and petroleum product consumption, escalating pricing pressure during this period.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: Sanction restrictions remain against several oil-producing nations, keeping parts of the global supply off the market and creating uncertainty.
In an environment of heightened volatility, oil and fuel companies are keen to swiftly respond to market changes. Digital tools are assisting them: for instance, the "Open Oil Market" platform allows for real-time tracking of oil and petroleum product prices, aiding investors in making quicker market decisions.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
The European gas market entered the winter season relatively resilient. Underground gas storage across the EU is filled above 90% capacity, reducing risks of shortages even in the event of colder weather. Active LNG imports have compensated for the sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas prices in Europe have stabilized at levels significantly below the peaks of 2022, alleviating the cost burden for industries and consumers.
- Record LNG Imports: In 2025, Europe purchased approximately 284 billion cubic meters of LNG, surpassing the previous record. The key supplier has been the USA (accounting for up to 60% of the volume), alongside Qatar and other exporters.
- Reducing Dependence on Russian Gas: The EU is formalizing plans to completely cease imports of Russian gas by 2027. Starting in early 2026, a ban on purchasing Russian LNG on the spot market will take effect, forcing EU countries to pivot to alternative sources.
Globally, gas demand remains stable due to Asian markets, although competition among suppliers is intensifying. Middle Eastern and North African countries are investing in LNG projects, aiming to capture a share of the growing market. Simultaneously, increased gas exports from the USA and Australia are creating an oversupply, keeping prices in check.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth
The year 2025 has been pivotal for renewable energy. There has been an unprecedented launch of new solar and wind power capacities globally. Industry reports indicate that during the first half of 2025, the volume of installed solar and wind capacities grew by more than 60% compared to the same period last year. For the first time in history, renewable energy generation surpassed that of coal-fired plants over the six-month period. This rapid growth in green generation is taking place against the backdrop of massive investments: a total of approximately $2 trillion has been invested in clean energy worldwide in 2025. However, despite record growth rates, further investment and modernization of electrical grids are needed to achieve climate goals.
Notably, China's success has positioned it as a leader in the energy transition. By adding hundreds of gigawatts of new solar and wind capacities, China managed to contain CO2 emissions growth in 2025 while increasing electricity consumption. China's experience demonstrates that substantial investments in renewable energy can simultaneously meet the growing electricity demand and reduce carbon footprints.
Coal Sector: Peak Demand
Global coal demand reached an all-time high in 2025, although growth rates have slowed to a minimum. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption increased by only 0.5% to approximately 8.85 billion tons, a record volume, after which a long plateau and gradual decline is forecasted by 2030. Coal remains the dominant fuel for electricity generation worldwide, but its market share is beginning to decrease due to competition from alternative energy sources.
Regional trends vary widely. In China—the largest coal consumer (accounting for about half of global consumption)—demand stabilized in 2025, with a gradual decline expected by the end of the decade as new renewable energy capacities come online. In India, record hydroelectric generation has resulted in a temporary reduction in coal use for the first time in many years. In the USA, there has been a slight increase in coal burning amid high gas prices and governmental support extending the operation of coal-fired plants. All these factors confirm that the peak of global coal demand is near, with the future dynamics depending on the pace of the energy transition in major economies.
Petroleum Products and Refining: High Margins
By the end of 2025, the petroleum products market is showing high profitability for refiners. Global refining margins (crack spreads) have reached multi-year highs. Contributing factors include sanctions (which reduced petroleum product exports from Russia), the closure and maintenance of several major refineries in Europe and the USA, and delays in commissioning new refining capacities in the Middle East and Africa. The European diesel segment remains particularly profitable: the diesel refining margin in Europe has surged to levels unseen since 2023, signaling a structural deficit of this fuel type.
In response, refineries are maximizing output to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Major oil companies have reported a sharp increase in profits within the downstream segment (refining and sales) due to high gasoline and diesel prices. According to the IEA, European refineries have increased oil processing by several hundred thousand barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to elevated margins. Analysts note that without new capacity additions in Europe and North America, fuel shortages may persist, supporting high margin levels into 2026.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Market Impact
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on commodity markets. Sanction regimes against the oil and gas sector remain in place, with strict compliance confirmed by recent events. In December, the USA intercepted an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, halting an attempt to bypass sanctions. Concurrently, the USA has increased pressure on the "shadow fleet" transporting Iranian oil: despite new restrictions, exports from Iran reached a multi-year high in 2025 due to shipments to Asia. Russian oil and petroleum product exports have been redirected to alternative markets (China, India, the Middle East), however, price caps and EU sanctions continue to cut into the industry's revenues. The EU is also tightening its restrictive measures: in addition to the oil embargo, a ban on the import of Russian LNG will take effect in early 2026—essentially completing Europe's withdrawal from energy carriers from Russia.
Against this backdrop, market participants are incorporating elevated geopolitical risks and price premiums into their forecasts. Any signals of potential easing of sanctions or diplomatic progress could significantly impact investor sentiment. Meanwhile, oil and gas companies are adapting to the new flow and price structures—diversifying logistics and seeking opportunities in regions less exposed to sanctions.
Investments and Projects: Looking Ahead
Despite market volatility, substantial investments in energy continue worldwide. Middle Eastern countries are increasing investments in oil and gas production: national companies are expanding production capacities to maintain market share in the long term. Notably, in the UAE, ADNOC has secured funding of approximately $11 billion for gas production enhancement projects. Simultaneously, leading exporters (Qatar, USA) are executing projects to expand LNG terminals, anticipating growth in global demand for blue fuel.
Significant funds are also being allocated for clean energy initiatives. Global investments in renewable sources continue to rise: corporations are investing in solar and wind farms, as well as energy storage infrastructure. Nonetheless, achieving decarbonization targets requires even more significant efforts and resources. New technologies—such as hydrogen energy and energy storage systems—are becoming increasingly attractive options for capital investments. It is expected that 2026 will bring new mergers and acquisitions in the industry, as well as the launch of major projects in both the traditional oil and gas segment and the renewable energy sector.
