Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, December 21, 2025: China's LPR Rate Decision, Public Company Earnings, Global Markets, and Investor Benchmarks
On Sunday, global markets take a pause in light of the upcoming holidays. However, investors will focus on the important decision by the People's Bank of China regarding lending rates (LPR) and a rare batch of corporate earnings, including results from the Japanese retailer Shimamura and the American company Ennis. Although U.S., European, and Russian exchanges are closed, these events set the informational context for the beginning of the new week, providing signals about the state of the global economy and specific sectors.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 22:00 — China: Decision on the 5-year LPR (December), forecast 3.50%.
- 22:15 — China: Decision on the 1-year LPR, forecast 3.00%.
China: LPR Rate and Monetary Policy
The People's Bank of China will publish the December values for the benchmark lending rates, the LPR. Analysts expect the 1-year LPR to remain at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating no changes from last month. This suggests the regulator's intention to maintain a neutral monetary policy at the year's end, without resorting to additional economic stimulus.
- Rate Stability: The key 1-year LPR serves as a benchmark for business lending; keeping it at 3.0% signals an intention to maintain accessible financing conditions without further monetary easing. The 5-year LPR, which affects mortgage loans, remaining at 3.5% implies that Beijing does not see the need for additional support for the real estate market as the new year approaches.
- Economic Background: In 2025, the Chinese economy faced risks of deflation and slowing domestic demand. Authorities had previously lowered bank reserve requirements and taken measures to stimulate lending. Maintaining the LPR at this time may reflect initial signs of stabilization: inflation is close to zero, but price declines have halted, and the regulator is waiting to assess the effects of previous stimulus measures.
- Market Impact: A predictable rate decision will likely be received neutrally by investors. If the PBoC opts for an unexpected cut in the LPR, this could weaken the yuan and provide momentum to Asian stock indices, benefiting shares in the banking and real estate sectors. Conversely, an increase in rates is unlikely and would present a negative shock to the risk appetite of global players.
Corporate Reports: Shimamura and Ennis
- Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a major clothing discount retailer in Japan. The company will report its results for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Previous results showed moderate sales growth accompanied by a decline in profitability, raising concerns among investors. The market is now focused on the dynamics of comparable sales and margins for the fall season: strong performance will confirm sustained consumer demand, while weak figures will heighten concerns about economic slowdown. It is particularly important to see if Shimamura can maintain profitability amid a weakening yen and rising costs.
- Ennis, Inc. – an American manufacturer of printed products and promotional apparel (NYSE: EBF). The company is set to report its results for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. No surprises are expected – demand for traditional business forms and checks in the U.S. is stable and growing slowly. Investors will be looking at revenue and profit; even a small increase could support the stock price. Although the company's scale is modest (market capitalization ~ $460 million), its results will signal sentiment in the B2B segment of the American economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- U.S. (S&P 500): American exchanges are closed on weekends, and no new macro reports are scheduled for December 21. U.S. indices finished the previous week positively, with the S&P 500 nearing year-to-date highs, recovering from the December rate cut by the Fed and optimism regarding the "Santa Rally." Overall sentiment is positive, with investors anticipating a shift in monetary policy in 2026 and a strong holiday sales season. Without trading on Sunday, U.S. market participants use the pause to assess positions ahead of the shortened pre-holiday week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Trading in Europe is also closed on December 21, and there are no significant statistical releases. Continental indices previously demonstrated cautious dynamics; following the December ECB meeting, the market stabilized, and volatility has decreased ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors are monitoring energy prices (which have remained relatively stable this winter) and preparing for the publication of preliminary inflation and business activity data in January. Since Sunday does not bring new drivers, the European market maintains a status quo.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on Sunday, with no major events on the Japanese agenda for this day (besides the Shimamura report). The Nikkei 225 index is finishing the year at high levels; earlier in 2025, it reached multi-decade highs amid a weak yen and rising profits for exporters. As the reporting season for July-September is behind most Japanese companies, investor focus shifts to upcoming benchmarks for 2026 – the Bank of Japan's policies and the dynamics of global demand.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow Exchange does not have sessions on Sundays, and no new corporate announcements are scheduled for December 21. The recent decision by the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate to 16% per annum remains at the forefront of the domestic market, aimed at supporting the economy. This easing of monetary policy could provide momentum for stocks in the banking and borrowing sectors, but the effect will only be felt at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, as the New Year holidays approach, trading activity on the exchange is decreasing, and significant movements are not expected in the absence of news.
Global Markets: Bitcoin at a Peak, Oil Stable, Gold at Record Highs
- Oil: Benchmark Brent crude is holding around $60 per barrel, showing stability. The market remains balanced due to OPEC+ production cuts and moderate global demand, with low volatility expected. Traders do not anticipate serious price fluctuations until the year-end without unexpected factors.
- Precious Metals: Gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and its role as a hedge against inflation. Silver is also at a multi-year peak (~$67). High prices of precious metals reflect investor caution, as they continue to seek a "safe haven" for their capital.
- Currencies: Currency market movements are minimal. The dollar index (DXY) remains around 98 points, while major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) trade within narrow ranges. Low activity is linked to the holiday period; liquidity is reduced, and traders are reluctant to open new positions before the lengthy weekends.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $120,000 – a record high reached during this year’s rally. Weekend trading is calm; investors have partially taken profits after recent gains. Ethereum (ETH) is holding above $7,000. Despite the temporary lull, the cryptocurrency market remains sensitive to news – any significant developments can quickly increase volatility.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- 1) China's LPR: The PBoC's decision on lending rates is a key signal from Asia. Maintaining the LPR at current levels will reaffirm a stability approach, while any deviation (e.g., a cut) will indicate Beijing's readiness to provide more support for economic growth. It is crucial to understand how long the Chinese regulator will maintain this accommodative stance and whether new stimulus will be required at the beginning of 2026.
- 2) Shimamura Report: The quarterly results from the Japanese retailer will provide insight into the Japanese consumer market. Strong sales and profit growth will indicate healthy domestic demand (positive for the retail sector and Nikkei 225). Conversely, disappointing metrics may heighten expectations for fiscal stimulus or additional measures by the Bank of Japan to support the economy.
- 3) Market Activity: Global trading on Sunday is minimal, so the impact of the discussed events will only manifest with the reopening of markets on December 22. The low liquidity of the weekend means that even a single piece of news can cause disproportionate price movements as the week begins. Special attention should be paid to the morning session in Shanghai, where Asia will respond first.
- 4) Year-End Preparation: The period of low volumes before the holidays is an opportune time to reassess strategies. A calm day can be dedicated to rebalancing portfolios ahead of the new year and considering anticipated events in early 2026. This approach will help prepare for potential volatility in the first weeks of January.
