Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting for November 15, 2025: China's Economic Slowdown, Results from JBS and Vallourec, Global Macro Trends, and Factors for Investors.
Saturday brings a relative calm to global markets: no significant macroeconomic publications are scheduled for November 15, and investors are taking a pause to reflect on the week's events. Attention is focused on signals of a slowdown in China's economy following the release of a series of statistics, as well as the concluding notes of the corporate reporting season. On the corporate side, several international companies have released their results even towards the end of the week, including the global meat processor JBS and the French pipe manufacturer Vallourec. In the absence of new data, it is crucial for investors to track the interconnections: for instance, how the slowdown in China will affect commodity markets and exporters, and what individual company reports reveal about industry conditions. The business environment of the day is calm, so market participants are focused on global trends and preparing for the upcoming events of next week.
Macroeconomic Background
- USA: There are no significant releases in the U.S. economic calendar for Saturday. U.S. markets are processing the data and news that have already been released: due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the publication of key statistics (including CPI inflation and retail data) is delayed, leaving investors without reference points. Following the conclusion of the main wave of reporting, the focus has shifted to external factors. The previous session on Friday ended with a sharp decline in stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.7-2.3% — marking the highest daily drop in over a month), reflecting investor caution ahead of the weekend. In the absence of new macro data, market participants are relying on corporate forecasts and global signals, while also keeping an eye on the evolving budget situation in Washington.
- Europe: European markets also do not receive fresh statistics on November 15. EU countries do not release macroeconomic indicators on this day, so the news backdrop is mainly shaped by external events. Investors in the Eurozone are evaluating the data released earlier in the week and signals from the ECB, while also paying attention to the slowdown in China, as cooling demand in Asia may impact European exporters (especially automobile manufacturers and luxury goods). Next week, new data on inflation and business activity is expected in Europe, so the current weekend is being used to reassess positions. Overall, sentiment on European exchanges is neutral: without fresh drivers, markets are tracking the dynamics of Wall Street and commodity prices.
- Asia: In the Asian region, Saturday passes without new reports — the major economies of the region are not releasing figures on November 15. However, sentiments are already influenced by statistics from China released the day before (see the section below): the slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in the Middle Kingdom is heightening concerns about demand in the region. Japan is preparing to release trade balance data for October by the beginning of next week, with some reduction in the deficit anticipated against the backdrop of stabilizing exports. The focus of Asian investors is gradually shifting towards upcoming indicators (including Japan's GDP for Q3) and potential stimuli from Chinese authorities. The mood in Asian markets is predominantly cautious: in the absence of new data, they are relying on already available information and currency dynamics, especially the exchange rates of the yen and yuan.
- Russia: The Russian macroeconomic calendar for November 15 is empty - neither Rosstat nor the Central Bank of Russia had planned publications for this day. The day before, on November 14, important inflation figures were released: consumer prices increased by only +0.5% month-on-month in October, while annual inflation slowed down to ~7.7% (down from ~8.0% the previous month), significantly below expectations. This slowdown in inflation, following the recent unplanned cut in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia to 16.5% per annum, confirms a reduction in price pressure in the economy. In the absence of new data over the weekend, Russian investors are focusing on external factors – dynamics in oil and metal prices, the exchange rate of the ruble, and the overall situation in global markets. The macroeconomic pause provides an opportunity to assess the effect of past regulatory measures and prepare for statistics set to be released next week.
China's Economic Slowdown
- Industrial production in China grew by only +4.9% year-on-year in October, significantly down from September's +6.5%. This marks the weakest pace in approximately 14 months; the weak external demand and the consequences of trade frictions with the U.S. have been contributing factors. The actual figures came in worse than the consensus forecast (+5.5%) — the unexpected deterioration in factory sector dynamics has intensified concerns regarding the sustainability of China's economic recovery in the final quarter of the year.
- Retail sales in China rose by +2.9% year-on-year in October compared to +3.0% the month earlier. Despite the massive sale festival (Singles' Day on 11.11), domestic consumer demand remains sluggish. The slowdown in retail growth indicates cautious behavior among households: even substantial discounts and stimulus measures have yet to accelerate consumption. The weak internal demand, coupled with a fall in exports, is hampering economic growth in the PRC and calls for new support measures.
- The simultaneous weakening of two key drivers of the Chinese economy—industry and consumption—highlights a dual challenge for Beijing. With exports suffering from external barriers, and internal spending growing only slowly, authorities may resort to enhancing stimulus measures (monetary or fiscal) and structural reforms. For global markets, such news from China is critically important: the slowdown in the PRC is already reflected in commodity prices (metals, oil) and is impacting companies reliant on the Chinese market (from German automotive groups to Asian electronics manufacturers). Investors worldwide should closely monitor China's forthcoming steps, as the dynamics of the world's second-largest economy largely set the tone for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports
- JBS N.V. – the world's largest meat processing company (Brazil) reported its Q3 results. JBS's global revenue grew by +13% year-on-year to $22.6 billion; however, net profit decreased to $581 million (from $693 million a year earlier). The business's margin was primarily affected by the situation in the U.S.: JBS's American division faced negative margins in the beef segment due to historically low cattle herds and high prices for live stock, significantly increasing processing costs. The company notes that the current downturn in the cattle breeding cycle in the U.S. will continue to pressure profits in the upcoming quarters. Meanwhile, JBS's Brazilian business demonstrated resilience: sales in Brazil significantly increased due to exports (the country remains the largest beef exporter) and higher meat prices in the domestic market. Nevertheless, even in its home country, the company faced temporary challenges — due to a bird flu case identified in spring, several countries imposed bans on importing poultry products, forcing JBS to redirect supplies and reduce prices for certain categories. Investors perceive JBS's report as an indicator of the state of the agricultural sector: on one hand, global demand for protein remains high (revenue growth), while on the other, costs and raw material inflation in certain regions restrain profitability. Attention will be drawn to JBS management's comments on the outlook for margin recovery in North America and whether additional measures to enhance efficiency are planned amidst expensive raw materials.
- Vallourec S.A. – the French manufacturer of steel pipes for the oil and gas and industrial sectors released results that met expectations. The EBITDA for the third quarter rose by +12.3% year-on-year to €210 million, which fell exactly in the middle of the previously stated guidance range (€195–225 million). The improvement in financial results was due to increased volumes and average selling prices of pipe products, as well as the implementation of cost-saving programs. Additionally, there was an increase in profitability in Vallourec's iron ore mining and forest business thanks to the expansion of its own mine – this also contributed to EBITDA. For the first time, the company presented its forecast for the entire year 2025: expected EBITDA in the range of €799–829 million, which is only slightly below last year's level (€832 million). Essentially, Vallourec anticipates that profits in the fourth quarter will be comparable to the third quarter results, continuing a stable trajectory. An important event for Vallourec was the recent contract with Petrobras: the French company won the tender to supply pipes for marine projects of the Brazilian state oil company until 2029 for up to $1 billion. According to management, the new contract will sharply increase Vallourec's share of orders from Petrobras (compared to the previous 2022 contract) and ensure significant revenue inflow in the coming years. Vallourec's financial position significantly strengthened: net debt decreased to €140 million, indicating a successful implementation of the business recovery strategy. Vallourec's report is perceived positively: it reflects high demand from oil and gas companies amid the acceleration of drilling projects and demonstrates the effectiveness of measures to enhance profitability.
Global Stock Indices
- USA (S&P 500): At this point, nearly all companies in the S&P 500 index have already published their quarterly results, so there are no new corporate drivers for November 15. The American market finished the week on a down note: on Friday, Wall Street indices fell significantly as investors took profits following a series of reports against a backdrop of macro uncertainty. The absence of fresh statistics (due to the pause in government agencies' operations) amplifies the role of external factors. U.S. market participants are assessing the outcomes of the reporting season: the technology sector, in general, exceeded expectations (a strong report from Cisco, for example, caused its shares to soar, raising annual forecasts), while consumer and media giants showed more muted results (Walt Disney disappointed with a revenue decline, reflecting challenges in streaming and cinema). American exchanges are closed on Saturday, and external signals remain in focus for investors; any unexpected events in the world over the weekend could set the tone for Monday's trading opening.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): The leading European index also has no new reports from blue-chip companies on this day — the quarterly reporting season in Europe is coming to an end. European exchanges will rely on global news, as there is no intra-European agenda on November 15. The slowdown in China's economy could also impact sentiment in Europe: the German industrial sector and luxury goods exporters in France are particularly sensitive to this. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone continues to decline gradually, and investors are hopeful that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes. In the absence of statistics, the current information backdrop for the Euro Stoxx 50 is shaped by U.S. and Asian events: volatility in oil prices, fluctuations in the euro exchange rate, as well as news from the U.S. bond market could lead to movements in European indices at the start of the week.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Japanese stock index also does not receive fresh corporate impulses during the weekend: most companies have already reported for April–September 2025. Attention is now shifting to the macroeconomy: investors are anticipating Japan's Q3 GDP assessment (publication expected in the coming days) and external trade data. Preliminary signals indicate a slight improvement in Japan's exports, which may reduce the trade deficit (statistics on the trade balance will be released at the beginning of the week). However, the weak performance of China raises concerns in Tokyo since China is Japan's key trading partner. Without news on Saturday, the Nikkei 225 will likely follow global trends: the exchange rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar, the dynamics of U.S. stock markets on Friday, and commodity prices will become benchmarks for Japanese investors ahead of the new week.
Russian Market
The Moscow Exchange in mid-November continues to experience the peak of the quarterly reporting season for Russian companies, although on the exact date of November 15 (Saturday) there are no major publications scheduled. Investors are evaluating results released throughout the week and preparing for a series of important releases expected by the end of the month. Many heavyweights in the market have already disclosed financial indicators for the first nine months of 2025: banks reported on interest dynamics and reserves, while oil and gas companies reported profits amidst price conditions, and metallurgists detailed the impact of global metal prices. The picture is mixed, but overall corporate results reflect the adaptation of businesses to new conditions. Concurrently, the internal macro backdrop has improved: the slowdown in inflation (~7.7% y/y in October) and relative stabilization of the ruble create more confident expectations for the future. After the unexpected easing of monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 16.5% per annum), companies are experiencing a reduction in borrowing costs, which is expected to support economic activity. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the Russian market continue to depend on external factors. Oil and gas prices remain a key driver for the MOEX index; current energy prices provide high profits for the oil and gas sector, supporting Russian stocks. The geopolitical situation and sanctions risks also remain on the agenda: investors are cautiously monitoring news on these fronts. Overall, the Russian market enters a new trading cycle after the weekend with hopes for a positive external backdrop and a continuation of the trend towards reduced inflationary pressure domestically.
Day's Results: What to Pay Attention to for Investors
- China's Slowdown and Global Demand: Weak October data from China (falling industrial production and retail growth rates) serve as the main macro newsmaker in recent days. It is important for investors to assess how the cooling of the world's second largest economy will reflect on their portfolios. Negative effects are possible for export-oriented companies and commodity assets — for instance, prices for industrial metals and oil may remain under pressure due to reduced demand from China. In this regard, markets are looking for signals from Chinese authorities about additional measures to stimulate the economy, and any such statements over the weekend or at the start of the week could significantly influence sentiment.
- Reporting Season: Industry Insights: The concluding phase of corporate reporting sheds light on the condition of different sectors of the economy. JBS's results highlighted issues in the agricultural and food sector — even with revenue growth, high costs are squeezing margins, particularly in regions with limited raw material supply. At the same time, Vallourec's report indicated that the investment cycle in the oil and gas sector is on the rise: demand for industrial equipment (pipes) remains high, allowing companies in this segment to improve financial results. Investors should utilize such signals when rebalancing their assets: taking into account which sectors currently perform better (energy, infrastructure) or worse (consumer goods, media), and how resilient these trends are amidst a slowing global economy.
- Absence of Data and Market Volatility: The pause in macrostatistic publications over the weekend is a calm before potential movements. The U.S. shutdown continues to block the release of several indicators, increasing uncertainty: markets lack fresh reference points on inflation and consumption in the U.S. Under such conditions, the role of rumors and external indicators (for example, leading indices, private research data) increases. The sharp decline of U.S. stocks on Friday indicates that investors are reacting nervously to any new information. At the beginning of the new week, volatility may increase as accumulated weekend news begins to be reflected in prices. Trading participants should be prepared for potential sharp movements – in a context of informational hunger, markets may react exaggeratedly even to minor events.
- Risk Management on a Calm Day: The absence of trading on Saturday is no reason to let one's guard down. Investors should use this weekend to review their portfolios and strategies. This is a suitable time to analyze recent company reports and macro data, re-examine target levels for positions and stop-losses. It is worth checking whether the fundamental assumptions regarding key assets have changed over the week. Furthermore, it is helpful to assess diversification and hedging: whether the portfolio is balanced between sectors and markets, and whether there is protection against potential declines (e.g., in the form of defensive assets or put options). Such "homework" on a calm day will aid in approaching the new week fully prepared and reduce the impact of unexpected shocks.
