Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 11, 2025: EU’s Exit from Russian Energy Resources, Oil Market Balance, Global LNG, Russia's Export to Asia, Renewable Energy and Forecasts in the Fuel and Energy Complex. An Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Companies.
The focus is on the decisive steps taken by the European Union towards abandoning Russian energy resources, the changes in the monetary policy of the United States and their impact on global oil and gas prices, as well as the latest geopolitical events affecting the fuel and energy complex. This review is aimed at investors and participants in the fuel and energy market, oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, and all those who are monitoring the dynamics of the oil, gas, electricity, and raw material markets.
Global Oil Market: Prices and OPEC+
World oil prices have stabilized after a recent rise: a barrel of Brent is trading around $62, while WTI is around $58. Last week's price increase was supported by expectations of a reduction in interest rates in the US and concerns about supply constraints (sanction risks for Russian and Venezuelan exports). However, overall, oil has declined by about 15% in 2025 as the market faces an oversupply threat amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious stance. During their latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to maintain current production quotas at least through the first quarter of 2026. The alliance still keeps a portion of its capacity idle – a total of around 3.2 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand) remain “in reserve” under existing production limitation agreements. With Brent at around $60, OPEC+ representatives are focusing on market stabilization rather than immediate increases in market share, given the deteriorating demand-supply balance forecast.
Key factors influencing the oil market now:
- Monetary policy of major economies (easing by the US Federal Reserve supports demand outlook).
- Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and Iran, risk of conflicts – for instance, around Venezuela).
- Actions of OPEC+ (maintaining production limits and readiness to respond to potential oil surpluses in the market).
- Global economic growth rates and demand for raw materials (including recovering demand in China and accelerated transition to renewable energy sources).
Monetary Policy and Demand for Energy Resources
The US Federal Reserve is easing its monetary policy this week: a reduction in the base rate by 0.25% is expected following the meeting on December 10. This marks the third rate cut in 2025 aimed at supporting the cooling economy and labor market. Lower rates and potential dollar weakness typically stimulate economic growth and demand for energy resources – from gasoline to electricity – which positively reflects on the oil and gas market. Industry investors are closely monitoring signals from regulators: the current easing cycle may come to an end if inflation stabilizes; however, the very expectations of cheaper borrowing have contributed to the recent oil price increase.
Europe’s Exit from Russian Energy Resources
The European Union is taking decisive steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, ambassadors from EU countries approved a phased plan to abandon all forms of Russian gas by the end of 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the agreement on future embargo “the beginning of a new era” for Europe – an era in which European energy will forever be free from dependence on Russian energy resources. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen added that a law banning any import of Russian oil will be proposed in early 2026 to “turn off the tap” for supplies from Russia by no later than 2027.
These measures continue the course taken by the EU following the events of 2022: during this time, Europe sharply reduced purchases of Russian pipeline gas (almost to zero) and imposed an embargo on oil imported via maritime routes. New initiatives aim to cement the break from Russia at the legislative level and stimulate the development of alternatives – from increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases from the US, Qatar, and other countries to accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources. The Kremlin has reacted skeptically to the EU strategy: Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the abandonment of relatively cheap Russian gas in favor of more expensive imports would condemn the European economy to rising costs and decreasing competitiveness in the long term.
Key components of the EU energy strategy:
- Complete abandonment of Russian gas: termination of purchases of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia by no later than 2027.
- Embargo on oil and petroleum products: a legislative plan to ban the import of Russian oil and oil products by the same date.
- Diversification of supplies: expanding LNG imports from alternative suppliers, increasing domestic renewable energy generation and energy efficiency to replace Russian hydrocarbons.
Redirection of Russian Supplies to Asia
Facing a contraction in Western markets, Russia is actively redirecting its energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was sent to China from Novatek's Arctic LNG-2 project, despite the fact that this terminal is under US sanctions. According to trader data, Russian LNG supplies to China increased significantly in the autumn – Beijing is eager to increase purchases of energy resources at a discount of 30-40%, ignoring unilateral Western sanctions. Energy cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, benefiting the economies of both countries: Russia gains an alternative market for its products, while China secures cheap fuel for its needs.
India also remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Following the imposition of the EU embargo, Indian refineries increased purchases of Russian Urals oil and other grades at substantial discounts to global prices. In recent negotiations, Russian leadership confirmed its readiness to provide India with stable oil and petroleum product supplies. Although New Delhi remains cautious, balancing geopolitical risks, cheap Russian energy resources help meet growing demand and restrain domestic fuel prices.
Simultaneously, Moscow is seeking opportunities to expand its export infrastructure to the East. Discussions are underway to increase pipeline capacity to China (the “Power of Siberia-2” project) and to bolster its own tanker fleet to deliver oil to Asian markets bypassing restrictions. These steps aim to solidify the long-term pivot of Russian energy flows from West to East.
Key actions by Russia in eastern markets:
- Launch of LNG supplies to China from the new Arctic LNG-2 project, despite sanction restrictions.
- Increase in oil exports to India at preferential terms (discounts to global prices), confirming readiness to supply the Indian market with fuel.
- Infrastructure development: plans for new pipelines (“Power of Siberia-2”) and expansion of the tanker fleet for uninterrupted export to Asia.
Kazakhstan and Transit Risks
Instability related to the military conflict in Ukraine creates new risks for the transit of energy resources in Eurasia. In early December, an attack by Ukrainian drones on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk forced Kazakhstan to reconsider its oil export routes. The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan announced that part of the oil from the Kashagan field will be redirected via an alternative route to China. Previously, Kazakhstan exported the majority of its oil through the CPC pipeline, which delivers crude to the Black Sea terminal in Russia. The CPC transports oil from key Kazakh fields (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak) and remains the country's main export channel.
Although the damage caused by the drone strike did not lead to a complete halt of shipments, the incident highlighted the vulnerability of this international infrastructure. The Kremlin described the attack on the CPC terminal as a flagrant incident, emphasizing the strategic significance of the consortium. Kazakhstan, for its part, has begun diversifying routes: alongside the Chinese direction, it is considering increasing shipments through Caspian ports and other bypass routes. In the long term, Astana plans to strengthen energy security also through development of refining: plans have been announced for the construction of a new large refinery with participation from foreign investors, which will enhance domestic capacity and reduce dependency on imported petroleum products. Experts note that transit risks through Russian territory are increasing – similar incidents can impact the global oil market, reminding participants of the premium for geopolitical risk in prices.
Global Gas and LNG Market
The natural gas market is experiencing a relatively stable situation compared to the frenzy of two years ago. In Europe, despite the approach of winter, the pricing environment is calmer than in previous years: gas reserves in underground storage are at a comfortable level, and spot prices are far from the records of 2022. The reduction in supplies from Russia is compensated by LNG imports – European terminals actively accept gas from the US, Qatar, Norway, and other sources. According to analysts' estimates, from January to November 2025, Russian LNG supplies to the European Union decreased by almost 7% year-on-year (to ~18 billion cubic meters), reflecting the EU's course towards a gradual exit from even LNG from Russia.
The global LNG supply continues to grow. New export capacities are being introduced in the US: the major Golden Pass terminal in the Gulf of Mexico (a joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil) is preparing to start shipments, expanding America's capacity to export gas. Qatar is increasing LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027 as part of the expansion of the North Field project, concluding long-term contracts with European and Asian buyers. Meanwhile, Asian countries are flexibly responding to market conditions: for instance, Pakistan has negotiated with Qatar to reroute LNG shipments designated for it to other markets due to temporary gas surplus and weak domestic demand. Against the backdrop of launching new capacities and moderate demand, spot gas prices remain comparatively low, although weather factors and potential supply disruptions can still cause short-term price spikes.
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
The development of renewable energy is gaining momentum, although the climate agenda faces resistance from the oil and gas sector. At the COP30 climate conference in Brazil in November, heated debates unfolded around the phase-out of fossil fuels. The final draft of the agreement did not satisfy the European Union – a straightforward roadmap for the gradual abandonment of oil, gas, and coal was excluded from the text under pressure from a group of major hydrocarbon exporting countries. As a result, the agreements reached are of a compromise nature: instead of clear commitments to scale back fossil fuel production, countries focused on increasing funding for climate adaptation and general emissions reduction targets.
Meanwhile, the energy transition continues to be implemented in practice. The year 2025 has become a record year for the commissioning of new solar and wind generation capacities in many countries. Major economies – from China and India to the US and EU – are investing in renewable energy, energy storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependency on hydrocarbons. However, in the short term, traditional resources still play an important role: high gas prices forced a rise in coal burning for electricity generation in certain regions in 2025, temporarily halting the trend toward decarbonization. Experts believe that as the share of renewable sources grows (supported by government initiatives), demand for coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline, strengthening the global push for sustainable energy.
Forecasts: A Look at Early 2026
Participants in the fuel and energy market are concluding 2025 with moderate optimism, but without excessive illusions. Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices may come under pressure due to rising stocks: several forecasts point to a decrease in Brent prices to $55-60 per barrel, if no new shocks occur. At the same time, geopolitical factors – from developments in Ukraine to sanction decisions and local conflicts (including possible escalation in Venezuela or the Middle East) – can sharply influence market conditions. In the gas market, the coming months largely depend on weather: with a mild winter and sufficient reserves, gas prices will remain low; however, unexpected cold periods or supply chain disruptions can cause price surges.
For investors and industry companies, adapting to new conditions will be of utmost importance. Diversification of supply sources, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including in the field of renewable energy sources) will become key elements of business resilience. The departing year of 2025 has demonstrated the close interconnection of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will have to balance between oversupply and supply risks, while the global community will seek to find a balance between energy security and climate goals.
