Energy News - Wednesday, February 11, 2026: Sanction Pressure, Redirection of Oil Supplies and Record LNG Imports
By the beginning of February 2026, the global energy market is grappling with conflicting factors. On one hand, the supply of oil and gas is beginning to exceed demand, creating conditions for a surplus and keeping prices at moderate levels. On the other hand, persistent geopolitical tensions and sanction pressures prevent oil prices from falling sharply. Western countries continue to tighten restrictions on the export of Russian hydrocarbons: in early February, new measures were introduced, including a reduction in the price cap on Russian oil and additional bans on maritime transport.
Under external pressure, key importers like India are reducing purchases of Russian energy resources, redirecting demand to alternative suppliers. Oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68–69 per barrel) due to expectations of an oversupply. The European gas market is navigating winter without a frenzy: despite rapidly depleting stocks, the situation is salvaged by mild weather and record LNG import volumes. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—record capacities of clean energy are being deployed, although oil, gas, and coal still form the backbone of the global energy balance. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the fuel and energy complex as of mid-February 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, global oil prices stabilised after a slight increase. The North Sea Brent is trading at around $68–69 per barrel, while American WTI is approximately $64–65. The oil market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. Analysts predict a significant oil surplus in the first quarter of 2026—according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels per day. However, various threats of supply disruptions prevent prices from falling much below current levels.
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. February saw the implementation of another round of sanctions: the EU and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44 per barrel and expanded restrictions on tanker shipments of raw materials from Russia. The U.S. has taken a tougher stance on Iran, not ruling out military measures against its oil infrastructure. The political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports from there. All these factors raise the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the pressure of oversupply.
- Redirection of Export Flows. Major Asian buyers are adjusting their oil imports under the influence of diplomatic pressure from the West. India, which recently imported over 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude, has started to sharply reduce these supplies. In January 2026, Russian oil imports into India fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day—a yearly low. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the new trade deal with India implies a de facto refusal by Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil. Although New Delhi has not officially announced an embargo, major Indian companies have already halted order placements for Russian crude. As a result, Moscow is redirecting exports to other markets, primarily to China, where refineries are keen to purchase Russian oil at a discount, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Declining Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage facilities are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Gas stocks in the EU dropped to around 44% of total capacity by the end of January—this is a minimal level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (around 58%). Nevertheless, mild winter weather and high deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) help avoid shortages and price shocks. Futures prices for gas (TTF index) are holding at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability.
- Depleting Stocks and Need for Replenishment. Winter withdrawals are leading to a rapid decrease in fuel volume in storage. If current trends persist, by the end of March European underground storage facilities may be filled to only about 30%. To raise stocks to 80–90% before next winter, the EU will need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the inter-season period. Achieving this task will require maximum increases in purchases during warmer months—significant portions of current imports are immediately consumed. Replenishing underground reserves by autumn will be a serious challenge for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Deliveries. The decline in pipeline supplies to Europe is compensated by unprecedented imports of liquefied gas. In 2025, EU countries purchased about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% year-on-year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. The growth in deliveries is driven by the expansion of global supply: new LNG plants coming online in the U.S., Canada, Qatar, and other countries are increasing global production by approximately 7%. The European market aims to see through the heating season of 2026/27 backed by high LNG purchases, especially as the EU plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027 (requiring about 33 billion cubic meters annually in additional LNG volumes).
Petroleum Products Market: Stabilization After Upheavals
- By early 2026, the global petroleum products market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is demonstrating gradual normalization after a period of shortages. Fuel demand remains high due to the recovery of transportation and industry; however, the launch of new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East has helped eliminate acute imbalances. Gasoline and diesel prices have retreated from the peaks of 2022–2023, although local spikes are still possible (during extreme cold or fuel supply disruptions). Governments in many countries are implementing measures to smooth price fluctuations—reducing taxes, selling fuel from reserves, or temporarily limiting exports. In particular, in Russia, after the fuel crisis of 2025, export restrictions on gasoline and diesel are still in place, while a damping mechanism for compensation for refineries keeps domestic prices from surging.
Electricity Sector: Growing Demand and Infrastructure Strengthening
- Global electricity consumption continues to grow robustly (over 3.5% annually according to IEA forecasts) amid accelerated electrification of transport, digitalization of the economy, and increased use of air conditioning. Even in developed countries, after stagnation in previous years, demand is again on the rise. These trends require massive investments in energy networks and storage systems to maintain supply reliability. Many governments are launching modernization and expansion programs for power grids and accelerating the construction of transmission lines. Concurrently, large battery farms are being built in several regions to smooth load peaks and integrate variable renewable generation (VRG). Energy companies are also strengthening cybersecurity and protective measures against extreme weather, striving to prevent outages in the context of the growing dependence of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Achievements and Growth Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues at an accelerated pace. 2025 was a record year for the commissioning of new renewable energy capacities (primarily solar and wind). According to the IEA, in 2025 the share of renewable energy in global electricity generation equaled that of coal (~30%) for the first time. In 2026, green energy will continue to expand. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting records: according to BloombergNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of major economies are ramping up support for eco-friendly technologies, seeing them as a driver of sustainable growth. In the European Union, climate goals have been tightened, requiring accelerated deployment of zero-carbon capacities and a reform of the emissions market. However, the rapid growth of the sector is accompanied by certain challenges:
- Integration of VRG into Energy Systems. The expanding share of solar and wind power plants imposes new requirements on energy grids. The variable nature of VRG generation dictates the need to develop backup capacities and energy storage systems for balancing—from fast-reserve gas installations to large battery parks and pumped-storage power plants. Energy grid infrastructure is also being modernized to transmit electricity from remote areas where VRG is located to consumers. Actively developing these areas will help contain CO2 emissions even with increasing electricity demand—provided that a sufficient volume of new low-carbon capacities is commissioned in a timely manner.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Amid Western Withdrawal
- Despite global efforts to decarbonize, coal consumption remains at historically high levels. In 2025, the global demand reached approximately 8.85 billion tonnes (+0.5% year-on-year), and in 2026 it is expected to remain roughly at that level. The growth is supported by developing economies in Asia (China, India, etc.), where coal continues to serve as a key fuel for electricity generation and industry. Simultaneously, Western countries are rapidly phasing out coal-fired power plants and banning new projects, aiming to completely abandon coal by the 2030s. This situation provides coal mining companies with high revenues in the short term, but tightening climate policies and the exit of investors restrict the long-term prospects of the sector.
Outlook and Forecast
Overall, the global fuel and energy complex enters 2026 without sharp upheavals, although uncertainty remains. The oil market is likely to remain relatively balanced: the expected supply surplus is offset by geopolitical risks, preventing prices from falling significantly or rising sharply. The main intrigue in the gas sector will be Europe's ability to replenish depleted gas reserves by next winter through increasing LNG imports and alternative supplies. Energy companies and investors must navigate between capitalizing on sustained demand for traditional energy sources and investing in new technologies—from renewable generation to energy storage systems—to align with long-term energy transition trends.
