Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News as of January 18, 2026: Iran, Venezuela, Oil, Gas, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Major developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 18, 2026, present a mixed picture for investors and market participants. There is a relative de-escalation in the Middle East: Following unrest in Iran and threatening statements from the United States, the level of tension is decreasing, temporarily reducing the threat of oil supply disruptions. Concurrently, there are cautious hopes for an increase in global supply due to Venezuela's gradual return to the market: US-backed efforts by Venezuela's new leadership to ramp up production inspire optimism, although the impact will not be felt immediately. On the global oil market, prices remain pressured by excess supply and moderate demand – Brent quotes hold steady in the mid-$60s per barrel following the volatility of the past week. The European gas market is experiencing a winter demand spike, but record LNG imports and substantial storage reserves keep prices from reaching extreme levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: various countries are reporting new records in renewable energy generation (RES), although governments are not yet discarding traditional resources to ensure energy system reliability. In Russia, authorities continue to impose restrictions on fuel exports and other stabilization measures to prevent shortages and price spikes in the domestic oil products market after last year’s volatility. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Excess Supply and Limited Demand Keep Prices in Check
As the global oil market enters 2026, prices demonstrate relative stability at a lower level. The North Sea Brent is fluctuating around $64 per barrel, while American WTI hovers around $59–60. These levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual correction following the price peak during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. The primary pressure factors remain oversupply and only modest demand growth. While OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to production restrictions, a wave of supplies from non-cartel sources is building – particularly with increased production in North America and reverting volumes from previously sanctioned countries, like Iran and Venezuela. Analysts note that without significant consumer growth (such as accelerated economic growth and demand in Asia), oil will likely remain in a relatively tight price range in the medium term. Short-term surges in prices due to geopolitical events are quickly neutralized: for instance, concerns over a potential military conflict in the Middle East prompted an increase in prices midweek, but subsequent softening rhetoric from Washington and the retention of stable export flows quickly returned prices to previous levels. Overall, the balance in the oil market currently favors buyers – global oil inventories are gradually increasing, and competition for market share is intensifying. In the absence of unforeseen disruptions or new decisive actions from OPEC, the current pricing environment is expected to remain close to present levels, with oil prices hovering around the mid-$60 per barrel range.
Gas Market: Cold Winter and Record LNG Imports Keep Prices at Bay
In the gas market, attention is focused on a sharp increase in seasonal demand due to cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In Europe, prolonged winter chill has led to an active withdrawal of gas from underground storage: stocks in EU countries have dropped to about 55–60% of capacity, compared to over 64% a year earlier. Nonetheless, the situation remains manageable thanks to the flexibility of LNG supplies. By mid-January, European LNG terminals reached record levels of regasification – daily LNG shipments into the EU gas transport system exceeded 480 million cubic meters, surpassing previous historical highs. This influx has helped offset the decrease in pipeline gas transit and contain price increases. While spot gas prices in Europe rose about 30–40% compared to the beginning of the month, they remain far from peak energy deficiency levels in 2022. Cold weather has also stimulated demand in Asia: key importers in Northeast Asia are boosting LNG purchases, with Asian spot prices (JKM index) rising to around $10 per MMBtu, marking a six-week high. However, the global gas market remains overall balanced: through redirected supplies between regions and sufficient levels of global production, rising demand can be satisfied. In the United States, the largest producer, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are hovering around $3 per million BTUs, maintaining the competitiveness of American LNG in foreign markets. In the coming weeks, the dynamics of gas prices will depend on the weather: if cold conditions persist, high pressures on storage will continue, but record import rates of LNG provide Europe with the resilience needed to navigate winter without critical shocks.
Iran and Sanctions: Decreased Tension and New Supply Factors
The geopolitical situation affecting energy markets has undergone significant changes. In Iran, the wave of mass protests that erupted at the end of last year has gradually subsided by mid-January, and the risk of immediate military escalation from the US has decreased. Previously aggressive rhetoric from Washington regarding potential strikes on Iranian assets has shifted to more measured statements, especially after Tehran demonstrated willingness to make certain concessions in addressing the internal situation. The American military presence in the region (including the arrival of a carrier group in the Persian Gulf) is now viewed more as a deterrent factor rather than a precursor to immediate conflict. Market concerns about potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or other disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have temporarily eased, reducing part of the geopolitical premium from oil quotes.
Simultaneously, there have been interesting shifts on the sanctions front. Washington continues to maintain all current restrictions against the Russian oil and gas sector, and there has been no significant easing of these measures. Russian energy resources continue to be redirected to alternative markets – primarily Asia – at notable discounts, and Western sanctions remain an important factor in the global trading environment. However, regarding Venezuela, the US stance is becoming more flexible: following political changes in Caracas, American officials are signaling readiness to accelerate the removal of oil sanctions. In particular, licenses for international oil companies to operate in Venezuela are expanding – Chevron and other operators will be able to increase the export of Venezuelan oil within a few months. These initiatives, supported by the new reformist government of Venezuela, are expected to eventually restore significant volumes of hydrocarbons to the global market. Experts, however, caution that the recovery of Venezuelan oil production will be gradual, as years of insufficient investment and sanctions have severely curtailed the country’s production capacity. Nevertheless, the mere prospect of increasing supply from Venezuela is bolstering consumer confidence and putting pressure on speculative sentiment, thereby limiting price growth. Thus, geopolitical risks at the beginning of 2026 have slightly adjusted: Middle Eastern tensions have eased, and the West’s sanction policy demonstrates targeted flexibility, which collectively creates a more favorable backdrop for the global FEC than previously anticipated.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Faced with pressure from Western countries demanding a reduction in cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, New Delhi has slightly reduced its purchases of Russian oil and gas in recent months. However, India considers a sharp withdrawal from these energy sources impossible due to their key role in national energy security. The country continues to receive raw materials from Russian companies on preferential terms: according to traders, the discount on the Russian Urals grade for Indian buyers reaches $4–5 against the Brent price, making these supplies very attractive. As a result, India maintains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil while simultaneously increasing purchases of oil products (e.g., diesel) to meet rising domestic demand. Concurrently, the Indian government is intensifying efforts to reduce dependency on imports in the future. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced a program to develop deep-sea oil and gas extraction on the continental shelf: the state-owned company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Initial results are considered promising, instilling hope for discovering new major fields. This strategy aims to bring India closer to achieving energy self-sufficiency in the long term.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to increase energy consumption by combining import growth with rising domestic production. Beijing has not supported Western sanctions against Moscow and has used the situation to actively increase purchases of Russian energy resources on favorable terms. Analysts estimate that in 2025, volumes of oil and gas imports to China grew by 2–5% compared to the previous year, surpassing 210 million tonnes of oil and 250 billion cubic meters of gas, respectively. Growth rates have somewhat slowed compared to the spike in 2024, but remain positive. Simultaneously, China is setting records in domestic production: last year, national companies produced over 200 million tonnes of oil and 220 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 1–6% higher than levels a year ago. The state is investing significant resources in developing hard-to-reach fields, implementing new extraction technologies, and improving yields from mature oil reservoirs. However, despite all efforts, China remains dependent on imports: about 70% of consumed oil and around 40% of gas must be sourced from abroad. In the coming years, these proportions are unlikely to change significantly due to the scale of the economy and the energy intensity of the industry. Thus, India and China – two key consumers in Asia – continue to play a critical role in global raw material markets, skillfully balancing the necessity of importing significant volumes of fuel and the desire to develop their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Records in RES and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy is accelerating, establishing new benchmarks in energy markets. In 2025, several countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. In Europe, total generation from solar and wind power plants has exceeded that from coal and gas-fired power stations for the first time in a year, solidifying the trend toward a shift in the balance in favor of "green" energy. In Germany, Spain, the UK, and several other countries, the share of RES in electricity consumption regularly exceeded 50% on certain days due to the introduction of new capacities. In the USA, renewable energy also reached an all-time high: by early 2025, more than 30% of all electricity produced came from RES, and the total generation from wind and solar surpassed that from coal power stations. China continues to be the world leader in the scale of "green" construction – in 2025, the country commissioned dozens of GW of new solar panels and wind turbines, renewing its own records for clean energy production. Major oil and energy companies, recognizing these trends, are actively diversifying: significant investments are directed toward RES projects, hydrogen technology development, and energy storage systems.
However, despite impressive progress in clean energy, governments and businesses are still compelled to maintain balance with traditional generation. The year 2025 clearly demonstrated that during peak demand periods or adverse weather conditions (for example, winters with low wind and solar output), fossil fuel backup capacities remain critically important for reliable energy supply. European countries that have reduced coal share in recent years have nonetheless temporarily brought some coal stations back online during cold snaps, while gas-fired units have taken on increased loads when wind availability was low. In Asia, maintaining base coal generation helps prevent disruptions in energy supply during demand spikes. Thus, the world is moving towards cleaner energy at unprecedented rates, but the era of complete carbon neutrality has yet to arrive. The transitional period is characterized by the coexistence of two systems: the rapidly growing renewable and traditional thermal, which mitigates risks and smooths seasonal and weather fluctuations. The strategy of many countries involves the parallel development of RES and modernization of traditional infrastructure – this approach aims to ensure the resilience of energy systems on the path to a carbon-free future.
Coal: High Demand Sustains Market Stability
The global coal market remains relatively stable despite global decarbonization trends. Demand for coal remains strong, particularly in Asian countries. In China and India – the largest consumers of coal – this energy source still plays a critical role in electricity generation and the metallurgical industry. According to industry reports, global coal consumption in 2025 remained around historical highs, only slightly declining (by about 1–2%) compared to the record levels of 2024. Increased coal use in developing economies offsets the reduction in its share in energy-deficient Europe and North America. Many Asian countries continue to commission modern coal power stations with increased efficiency, striving to meet the growing energy demand of populations and industries. On the price front, the situation is calmer than during the height of the energy crisis: prices for thermal coal in global markets are around $100–110 per tonne at the beginning of 2026, significantly lower than peak levels from two years ago. Price softening is associated with increased supply – major exporters (Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia) have ramped up production, while European demand is declining with the introduction of RES. Europe continues a phased exit from coal: a symbolic event was the closure in January of the last deep coal mine in the Czech Republic, marking the end of 250 years of coal mining history in the country. Nevertheless, globally, coal remains an essential part of the energy balance. The International Energy Agency predicts a plateau in global coal demand over the next few years, followed by a gradual decline. In the long term, tightening environmental regulations and competition from cheap RES will limit the coal industry's growth, but in the short term, the coal market will continue to rely on consistently high Asian demand.
Oil Products and Refineries: Increasing Refining Capacity Stabilizes Fuel Markets
The global market for oil products enters 2026 without disruptions, demonstrating balance due to the expansion of refining capacities and adaptation of logistics chains. After acute shortages of diesel and other oil products experienced during the energy crisis, the situation has normalized: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the global market is sufficient to meet demand in most regions. Leading refineries are operating at high utilization, and refining margins have stabilized at average levels.
- Launch of New Refineries: In 2025, several major refineries were commissioned, significantly increasing total capacities. In particular, the huge Dangote Refinery complex in Nigeria began operations, capable of processing up to 650,000 barrels of oil per day, thereby enhancing local fuel security and reducing import dependency for several countries in the region. New projects also commenced in the Middle East and Asia: modern refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, China, and India added hundreds of thousands of barrels per day to global refining. These new capacities have helped eliminate supply bottlenecks and create surplus fuel reserves in the global market.
- Restructuring of Trade Flows: Sanction limitations and changes in the demand structure have led to a redistribution of oil product flows among regions. The European Union, having eliminated direct imports of Russian oil products, has redirected fuel purchases from the Middle East, Asia, and the USA. Simultaneously, Russia has increased exports of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil to friendly countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, partially replacing former European markets. This geographical transformation of trade is proceeding relatively smoothly: there has been no fuel shortage in major consumption centers, and prices for gasoline and diesel in Europe and North America fell by the end of 2025 compared to peak values a year prior.
- Stabilization of Prices for Consumers: Thanks to increased refining and the establishment of new supply chains, prices for oil products at gas stations remain within acceptable ranges. In the United States and Europe, the average cost of gasoline and diesel keeps below levels from early 2023, alleviating inflationary pressure on the economy. Developing countries also benefit from increased fuel accessibility: improved supply has helped avoid sharp price spikes even amid raw crude volatility. Governments in many countries continue to monitor domestic fuel markets closely – necessary mechanisms for subsidizing or temporarily restricting exports are used to protect consumers from price shocks. As a result, a composite of factors – from launching new refineries to flexible policies – has led the global oil product market into 2026 in a state of relative equilibrium. For large fuel companies, this means a more predictable market environment, while consumers enjoy stable prices and reliable supplies of gasoline, diesel, and other fuel types.
