Latest news on the oil, gas, and energy sector as of January 8, 2026: global oil and gas market, energy, renewables, coal, petroleum products, key trends and events for investors and energy sector participants.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 8, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants with a combination of oversupply and geopolitical shifts. The new year began with a non-standard move by the U.S. regarding Venezuela—the capture of the country's leader—which could reshape oil supply routes; however, energy demand growth remains subdued, heightening concerns about market oversaturation.
The global oil market is experiencing a price decline under pressure from surplus: production outpaces modest consumption growth, creating conditions for oversupply at the beginning of the year. After the holidays, Brent crude is hovering around $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Meanwhile, the European gas market is passing through the middle of winter without turmoil—gas reserves in EU storage remain at high levels, and mild temperatures combined with record LNG supplies help keep prices restrained. The global energy transition is not slowing down: many countries are recording new generation records from renewable energy sources (RES), although for energy system reliability, support from traditional resources remains necessary.
In Russia, following last year's spike in fuel prices, authorities are maintaining a set of measures to stabilize the domestic petroleum market, including extending export restrictions. A detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date is presented below.
Oil market: Oversupply and the Venezuelan factor pressuring prices
Global oil prices at the beginning of 2026 remain under downward pressure. After a few weeks of gradual decline, prices accelerated their fall amid expectations of abundant supply. Analysts note that total oil output grew significantly last year—OPEC countries increased supplies, and the non-OPEC increase was even more substantial—as a result, the market entered 2026 with a surplus. Estimates suggest a possible surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, given the slowing demand growth (around +1% per year compared to the usual ~1.5%). Brent has dropped to ~$60 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is at ~$57, which is 15-20% lower than the levels at the beginning of last year.
An additional factor is the situation surrounding Venezuela. The unexpected detention of President Nicolás Maduro during a U.S. operation in the first days of January brought forth the prospect of a timely lifting of the American oil embargo on Caracas. Washington announced a deal for the supply of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., effectively redirecting part of Venezuela's exports that previously went to China. This news heightened expectations of increased global supply, further driving down oil prices. At the same time, the oversupply situation prompts OPEC+ countries to consider their next steps: despite previous quota increases, the alliance signals its readiness to cut production again should prices fall below a comfortable level. However, no new agreements have been announced yet—market participants are closely monitoring the rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and its partners regarding potential market stabilization.
Gas market: Europe confidently navigating winter thanks to reserves and LNG
Europe remains the center of attention in the gas market, where the situation is considerably more stable than during the height of the crisis in 2022-2023. EU countries entered 2026 with gas storage facilities over 60% full, significantly above historical averages for mid-winter. Warm weather in December and record volumes of imported liquefied natural gas allowed for a reduction in withdrawals from storage. By early January, gas prices in Europe are holding at relatively low levels: the Dutch TTF index is trading around €28-30 per MWh (approximately $9-10 per MMBtu). Although prices have slightly risen in recent weeks due to cold weather and seasonal demand increases, they remain significantly below the two-year peak values.
European energy companies are actively substituting lost pipeline gas supplies from Russia with increased LNG imports. By the end of 2025, LNG supplies to Europe rose approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching a record 127 million tons—primarily driven by the U.S., Qatar, and Africa. New floating LNG receiving terminals introduced in Germany and other countries have enhanced capacity and bolstered the region's energy security. Analysts forecast that the EU will end the current heating season with substantial reserves (around 35-40% of storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the resilience of the gas market. In Asia, LNG prices remain slightly higher than in Europe—the Asian JKM index is above $10 per MMBtu—however, the global gas market is generally in a state of relative calm thanks to increased supply and moderate demand.
International politics: U.S. redirects Venezuelan oil, sanctions standoff persists
Geopolitical factors are once again exerting significant influence on the energy sector. In the early days of the new year, the U.S. conducted an unprecedented operation, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and immediately announced intentions to restart Venezuelan oil exports to Western markets. The Trump administration has indicated that American companies are ready to invest in the Venezuelan oil sector and procure raw materials worth $2 billion, redirecting up to 50 million barrels previously destined for China to the U.S. Washington presents this deal as a step towards controlling Venezuela's largest oil reserves and increasing America's energy security; however, this approach has provoked sharp discontent from Beijing.
China, a major buyer of Venezuelan oil, condemned the U.S. actions, labeling them as "bullying" and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing has indicated it will protect its energy interests: it is possible that China will ramp up purchases of Iranian and Russian oil or take other measures to offset potential losses from Venezuela. This new escalation between major global powers presents geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources will intensify, and political maneuvers may introduce volatility into prices.
Meanwhile, the sanctions standoff between the West and Russia in the energy sector continues without significant changes. At the end of last year, Moscow extended the decree prohibiting the export of Russian oil and petroleum products to buyers adhering to the price cap until June 30, 2026. Thus, Russia reaffirms its position not to acknowledge the price restrictions imposed by G7 and EU countries. European sanctions against the Russian FEC remain in effect, and the routes for supplying Russian energy resources have been definitively redirected to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. No significant easing of sanctions or breakthrough in dialogue between Russia and Western countries is in sight, forcing the global market to operate within a newly divided paradigm disrupted by sanction barriers.
Asia: India enhances energy security under pressure, China increases production
- India: Facing unprecedented Western pressure (the U.S. doubled the tariffs on Indian exports for cooperation with Russia to 50% since August), New Delhi firmly asserts its stance: a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country’s energy security. Indian authorities secured favorable terms—Russian companies are forced to offer an additional discount on Urals oil (around $5 off Brent) to retain the Indian market. As a result, India continues to actively purchase Russian oil at preferential prices and even increases imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet rising domestic demand. At the same time, the country is taking steps to reduce its dependence on imports in the long term. On Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national offshore oil and gas exploration program. Under this "deep-water mission," the state-owned company ONGC began drilling ultra-deep wells in the Andaman Sea—by the end of 2025, the discovery of the first natural gas field in this region was announced. This new finding fuels hopes of bringing India closer to its goal of energy independence. Additionally, India and Russia continue to strengthen trade and economic ties: despite external pressure, in 2025 the countries expanded transactions in national currencies and enhanced cooperation in the oil and gas sector, demonstrating a commitment to partnership.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also ramping up energy source purchases while simultaneously increasing its own production. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has utilized the situation to import Russian oil and LNG at favorable prices. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs, in 2024, the country imported about 212.8 million tons of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—an increase of 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports continued to rise, albeit at more moderate rates due to the high base. Simultaneously, Chinese authorities are encouraging growth in domestic oil and gas production: from January to November 2025, national companies extracted approximately 1.5% more oil than in the same period the previous year and increased natural gas production by about 6%. The increase in domestic production partially compensates for rising consumption but does not eliminate China's need for external supplies. The government is investing significant resources in the development of fields and enhanced oil recovery technologies. Nonetheless, given the enormous scale of its economy, China's dependence on imported energy resources is expected to remain significant: analysts estimate that in the coming years, the country will need to import at least 70% of the oil it consumes and about 40% of the gas it uses. Therefore, India and China—two of the largest Asian consumers—will continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining strategies for ensuring supply from abroad with the development of their own resource bases.
Energy transition: record growth in RES and the significance of traditional generation
The global shift towards clean energy continues to ramp up. In 2025, many countries recorded new records in electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES). Europe generated more electricity from solar and wind power plants than from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time in 2025. This trend is expected to continue in 2026: with the introduction of new capacities, the share of "green" energy in the EU energy balance is steadily growing, while the share of coal is decreasing, having receded following a temporary increase during the 2022-2023 crisis. In the U.S., renewable energy has also set historical benchmarks—over 30% of generation is now accounted for by RES, and last year, total wind and solar production exceeded electricity generated from coal-fired plants for the first time. China, as a global leader in installed RES capacity, annually brings online tens of new gigawatts of solar panels and wind turbines, constantly breaking records in its own "green" generation.
According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3.3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards RES projects, network modernization, and energy storage systems. In 2026, investments in clean energy might see further growth amid government support programs. For instance, in the U.S., approximately 35 GW of new solar plants are scheduled to come online this year—this is a record figure, accounting for nearly half of all anticipated new generation capacity. Analysts forecast that by 2026-2027, renewable energy sources could take the lead globally in electricity production, surpassing coal in this metric.
At the same time, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The increasing share of solar and wind creates challenges for network balancing during times when sufficient RES generation is unavailable. Gas and even coal-fired plants are still used to meet peak demand and provide reserve capacity. For example, last winter, certain regions in Europe had to temporarily increase generation at coal-fired plants during periods of calm, cold weather—even with environmental costs involved. Governments in many countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Thus, the energy transition is reaching new heights but demands a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation is setting records, yet the role of classic power plants remains critically important for ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply.
Coal: High demand ensures market stability
Despite the rapid development of renewable sources, the global coal market retains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains high, particularly in Asia-Pacific countries, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive fuel consumption. China, being the world's largest coal consumer and producer, burned coal in 2025 at almost record levels. Output from Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons annually, fulfilling a substantial share of internal needs; however, this barely suffices during peak load periods (for example, in hot summers with widespread air conditioning use). India, possessing extensive coal reserves, is also increasing its use of coal: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated at coal-fired plants, and total coal consumption is rising along with economic growth. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing demands of their populations and industries.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to persistently high demand. Leading exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped keep prices relatively stable. Following the price peaks of 2022, thermal coal prices have dropped to more normal levels and are currently fluctuating within a narrow range. For instance, the price of thermal coal at the European ARA hub is about $100 per ton now, whereas two years ago, it exceeded $300. Overall, the balance between supply and demand appears to be well-matched: consumers are assured of fuel, while producers enjoy stable sales at profitable prices. While many countries announce plans to reduce coal use for climate goals, in the next 5-10 years, this energy source is expected to remain irreplaceable for electrifying billions of people. Experts believe that in the coming decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will continue to play a significant role, even despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a phase of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry remains one of the mainstays of global energy.
The Russian petroleum market: Measures to stabilize fuel prices
The domestic fuel market in Russia continues to operate under emergency measures aimed at normalizing the pricing situation following last year's fuel crisis. In August 2025, wholesale fuel prices in the country hit historical records, and several regions faced local shortages due to high seasonal demand (summer travel and harvest campaigns) coupled with reduced supply (several major refineries temporarily shut down due to accidents and drone attacks). The government intervened promptly to cool the market. On August 14, a task force chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was convened to monitor the situation in the FEC, resulting in the announcement of a series of steps aimed at reducing speculation. The implemented and ongoing measures include:
- Extension of the fuel export ban: The complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, imposed in early August, has been extended multiple times and remains in effect (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This directs additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel monthly—that were previously destined for export back to the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of supplies for large refineries: As the market balance improved, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, some major refineries have been allowed to resume limited export shipments under governmental control. However, the embargo on fuel exports continues for independent traders, oil depots, and small refineries, preventing the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Increased internal market monitoring: Authorities have strengthened oversight of fuel movement within the domestic market. Oil companies are required to prioritize domestic consumers’ needs and avoid the practice of mutual exchange on stock exchanges that previously inflated prices. Regulators (Ministry of Energy, FAS, and St. Petersburg Exchange) are developing long-term measures—such as a direct contracting system between refineries and gas stations, bypassing exchanges—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- Subsidies and “damper”: The government continues its financial support for the industry. Budget subsidies and the reverse excise mechanism (“damper”) continue to compensate oil refiners for part of their lost export revenue. This encourages refiners to direct a larger volume of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market without incurring losses due to lower domestic prices.
The culmination of these measures has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange quotations last summer, retail prices at gas stations grew by only about 5% in 2025 since the start of the year (within inflation rates). Gas stations remain stocked with fuel, and the measures implemented are gradually cooling the wholesale market. The government states it will continue to take proactive steps: if necessary, restrictions on petroleum product exports will be extended into 2026, and resources from state reserves will be rapidly directed to regions facing local shortages. Monitoring the situation continues at the highest level—the authorities are prepared to implement new mechanisms to secure a stable fuel supply for the country and maintain prices for consumers within acceptable limits.
