Overview of the Oil and Gas Market for Saturday, November 15, 2025: Stable Oil Prices, Sanction Pressure on the Russian Energy Sector, European Confidence in Gas Supplies, and Preparations for COP30.
Key Takeaways
- Oil: Global oil prices have stabilized after a recent decline, finishing the week at local lows amid signs of oversupply and expectations of OPEC+ decisions.
- Gas and Winter: Europe enters winter with high gas storage levels (around 85%) and claims it is ready to face the heating season without shortages, though the energy market remains dependent on weather and LNG imports.
- Sanctions: Increased sanction pressures on Russian oil and gas (including sanctions against "Lukoil" and "Rosneft") are forcing market participants to restructure supply chains; Russian companies are offering discounts and using shadow fleets of tankers to maintain exports.
- USA and Canada: North American oil production remains at record levels (~13 million barrels/day in the USA), oil and LNG exports are rising, and major infrastructure projects (pipelines, terminals) are resuming with government support.
- Asia: China is experiencing a slowdown in energy demand growth and planned maintenance at major refineries, while India continues to increase imports of cheap oil, remaining one of the drivers of global demand.
- New Projects: New promising projects are emerging in raw material markets – from oil and gas field development in South America to plans for building nuclear power plants – indicating ongoing investments in energy despite the climate agenda.
Oil Market: Price Stability Amid Expectations and Oversupply
Prices. Following a noticeable decline earlier in the week, global oil prices show relative stability towards the end of trading week. The benchmark Brent is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI hovers near $59. These levels are close to the lowest in recent months, reflecting sustained oversupply in the market. Investors are assessing the risks of overproduction: according to updated OPEC forecasts, by 2026 global supply could exceed demand, and the International Energy Agency also notes a faster-than-expected production growth outside of OPEC+. Consequently, Brent and WTI prices are under pressure, showing a slight decline over the week.
Supply and Demand Factors. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- High Supply: Oil production remains at historically high levels. OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing exports after softening restrictions – in early November, the alliance allowed a symbolic increase in quotas (~+0.14 million barrels/day starting December), postponing more significant steps until 2026. At the same time, U.S. oil production reached record levels (around 13 million barrels/day) due to the shale boom and deregulation. Previously restricted barrels are also returning to the market – for example, exports from the Kurdish oil region in Iraq have resumed. Collectively, these factors are sustaining an oil surplus in the market.
- Slowing Demand: Global demand for oil is growing much slower than in previous years. Slowing economic growth in China, high prices in recent years, and the push for energy efficiency are limiting consumption. According to IEA estimates, the increase in global demand in 2025 will be less than 1 million barrels/day (compared to over 2 million in 2023). The rapid spread of electric transport is also starting to impact long-term gasoline demand prospects.
- Storage and Floating Reserves: Commercial oil and refined product inventories in key regions continue to grow. In the U.S., crude oil inventories increased by about ~1.3 million barrels over the last week, with a similar trend observed in Europe and Asia. In addition, significant volumes of oil are accumulating in floating storage – traders estimate that around 1 billion barrels of oil are currently on tankers, some of which are transporting hard-to-sell sanctioned oil. The accumulation of such reserves intensifies pressure on prices.
Market Expectations. Despite clear signs of oversupply, the decline in prices is being restrained by a number of factors. Geopolitical risks and concerns about supply disruptions create a sort of "floor" for prices around $60 per barrel – market participants recall the possibility of sudden events (escalation of conflicts, force majeure) that could reduce supply. Additionally, an upcoming scheduled meeting of OPEC+ ministers is on the horizon, and markets are pricing in expectations that major exporters will not allow prices to plummet below critical levels. Saudi Arabia and its partners have signaled their readiness to revisit production levels and extend voluntary restrictions if price declines intensify. Thus, the consensus forecast for the coming weeks is continued moderate low prices without sharp fluctuations, unless something extraordinary occurs. Under these conditions, oil companies are focused on cutting costs and hedging, planning budgets for 2026 based on cautious price expectations.
Sanction Pressure: Restructuring of Russian Export Flows
New Western sanctions against the Russian energy sector are entering a crucial phase. In October, the U.S. added major Russian oil companies "Lukoil" and "Rosneft" to the sanction list, obliging counterparties to complete all transactions with them by November 21. This deadline is fast approaching, and Russian market participants are scrambling to adapt to the new conditions. According to reports, "Lukoil" has appealed to the U.S. Treasury Department to extend the timeframe for winding down operations, arguing that more time is needed to close contracts and sell overseas assets. Until a decision is announced, the company’s foreign transactions are on hold – including operational activities at refineries and trading subsidiaries abroad. For instance, "Lukoil" had previously attempted to sell several international assets to trader Gunvor, but in November U.S. authorities blocked this deal.
Export Adaptation. The Russian oil and gas sector is seeking alternative sales routes under sanction pressure. Traditional buyers are restructuring supply chains: India's largest state company Indian Oil stipulated in a new oil tender that suppliers and shipping ports should not be under U.S., EU, or UK sanctions. This means that Indian refineries are ready to continue purchasing Russian oil but through intermediaries from third countries, avoiding direct transactions with sanctioned entities. Another Indian company, Nayara Energy (partially owned by "Rosneft"), stated it would maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite external pressures. At the same time, direct purchases of Russian oil by leading players in China have sharply decreased: fearing secondary sanctions, a number of state and independent processors in China have cut imports from Russia. Reports indicate that Russian oil shipments to China have dropped to half of previous volumes – particularly after sanctions were imposed on one of the Chinese refineries for cooperating with Russia. This has led to a decrease in prices for Far Eastern grades (ESPO, "Sokol"), and Russian exporters have had to redirect these volumes to other countries at significant discounts.
Alternative Logistics. To maintain exports, Moscow is increasingly utilizing shadow mechanisms. Oil sales are conducted through lesser-known traders registered in friendly jurisdictions, and shipments are carried out by a "dark fleet" of old tankers, which have officially changed ownership. These vessels turn off transponders and transfer oil at sea, masking its origin. Although this scheme involves higher costs and risks (environmental and insurance), it allows Russian oil to find its way to markets in Asia and Africa outside official channels. Analysts note that the share of Russian export attributed to "gray" schemes has reached record levels in 2025. Concurrently, Russia continues to develop trade in national currencies and barter deals with several countries to bypass financial constraints.
Domestic Market. The stringent measures taken by the Russian government to stabilize the domestic fuel market earlier this autumn remain in effect. Export restrictions on gasoline and diesel, imposed in September, have been extended until the end of the year, which, alongside compensatory payments to refineries, has allowed for the saturation of the domestic market with oil products. Wholesale fuel prices in Russia have retreated from the peak values of August, while retail prices have ceased to rise. Thus, despite external pressure, the Russian oil sector is currently managing to avoid acute disruptions: the domestic market is protected by manual regulation, and export flows have been reoriented as part of the "eastern pivot." However, experts warn that further tightening of sanctions or new physical threats (such as drone attacks on infrastructure) could deal a more serious blow to export revenues and production in the future.
USA and Canada: Record Production and Infrastructure Renaissance
The North American energy sector is demonstrating steady growth as it comes to the end of 2025, setting the tone for the global market. In the United States, oil production remains at record levels – approximately 13 million barrels per day, akin to the best pre-crisis periods. American producers, taking advantage of favorable prices last year, have ramped up drilling activity, particularly in Texas and New Mexico's shale fields. Although the growth rate slowed in 2025, the U.S. confidently retains its status as the largest oil producer.
Export Growth. Thanks to high production levels, the U.S. has also increased oil and gas exports. American crude oil shipments abroad consistently exceed 4 million barrels per day, heading to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The U.S. has effectively become one of the key global exporters, supplying allies with raw materials amid sanctions against other producers. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. are reaching record levels: 2025 is expected to see the commissioning of several new LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast, raising total capacity to ~150 billion cubic meters per year. This fortifies the U.S.'s position as a leading gas supplier on the global market – American LNG has helped Europe compensate for the shortfall in Russian pipeline gas and competes for market share in Asia.
Infrastructure and Policy. The U.S. administration is encouraging the energy sector by easing regulatory barriers. In 2025, some oil and gas provinces that were shut down during the previous cycle of environmental restrictions have been reopened for development. Moreover, a major infrastructure project has been revived: the Keystone XL pipeline (connecting Canadian bituminous sands to U.S. refining) has received the green light and construction, which was halted in 2021, has resumed. This decision, supported by the administration, aims to increase the reliability of heavy oil supplies from Canada and create jobs. Simultaneously, Canada and the U.S. are investing in the expansion of pipelines and export terminals on the Pacific Coast – to expedite the delivery of energy resources to Asian markets. Canadian producers, capitalizing on demand, have increased production in Alberta and are planning new LNG projects on the west coast.
Balance of Interests. Despite the support for traditional fuels, the energy transition continues in North America. Major oil and gas corporations are investing in carbon capture projects, "green" hydrogen, and renewable energy, attempting to diversify business models. The governments of the U.S. and Canada declare their commitment to climate goals, while simultaneously emphasizing the need to strengthen energy security through domestic production. This dual approach – increasing oil and gas production now while simultaneously advancing clean technologies – reflects an attempt to balance economic demands with climate commitments.
Asia: Demand Under Control, China Treads Carefully, India Grows
The Asian region remains a key consumer of energy resources, yet the demand dynamics in the largest economies of Asia are shifting. China, long the engine of global oil and gas consumption growth, shows a more moderate appetite for raw materials in 2025. Economic growth in China has slowed, impacting oil demand – crude oil imports have stabilized at around 11 million barrels per day and are no longer breaking records as they did previously. Additionally, the country is undergoing active electrification of transport and developing energy-efficient technologies, slowing the consumption growth rates for gasoline and diesel. An indirect sign of market balance is PetroChina's decision to temporarily halt one of its largest refineries in Yunnan, with a capacity of 13 million tons per year for repairs. From November 15 to January 15, this plant will be under planned modernization, and fuel supplies to southwest China will be redirected from other sources. The two-month downtime of such a large facility indicates that there are sufficient reserves and backup capacities in the system to carry out upgrades without the risk of gasoline or diesel shortages in the region.
India. In contrast to China, India maintains a high growth rate in energy consumption in 2025. The world's second-most populous country is increasing oil imports, taking advantage of the availability of cheaper barrels from Russia and the Middle East. Traders report that Indian oil imports reached a record high of over 5 million barrels per day in the fall, satisfying a growing demand for fuel in the economy. At the same time, Indian refineries are processing a diverse range of raw materials, seeking to benefit from discounts and advantages arising from changes in global flows. The Indian government is concurrently accelerating the development of domestic production and infrastructure: terminals for LNG reception are being expanded, and new pipelines for gas distribution across the country are being constructed. Growth in gas generation and renewable energy is also a priority for New Delhi – the country is investing in solar and wind power plants, planning to significantly reduce reliance on coal by 2030. However, coal still remains the basic fuel for India: in 2025, new modern coal units will be brought online to meet the growing electricity demand.
Other Asian Economies. In Southeast Asian countries, a similar picture can be observed: energy consumption increases with industrial development, but governments are trying to reduce import dependence. Indonesia and Vietnam are implementing programs to develop their own oil and gas production and are constructing LNG terminals to diversify gas supplies. China, in addition to curbing demand, is investing in strategic oil reserves and accelerating the transition to renewable sources – the share of renewables in China's energy system has exceeded 30%. However, coal continues to play a significant role in China: after last year's power supply disruptions, authorities increased domestic coal production to a record 4.6 billion tons per year to avoid shortages. Overall, Asia is balancing between traditional and new energy sources: on one hand, the region remains the main driver of oil and gas demand, while on the other, it is witnessing the highest growth rates in green energy globally.
Europe: Confidence in Supplies, but Market Depends on Weather
The European energy market is entering winter relatively well-prepared, albeit with vulnerabilities. Gas Sector: Underground gas storage in the EU is filled to approximately 85% of capacity by mid-November – this is lower than nearly 100% a year ago, but still provides a solid buffer for a cold winter. A warm autumn has allowed EU countries to save fuel: gas consumption in October to early November was below average levels, helping to preserve reserves. Moreover, supply diversification continues: Europe is being consistently supplied with record volumes of LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and Africa, nearly fully compensating for the halted pipeline gas imports from Russia. Wholesale gas prices in the EU remain at moderate levels around $400-500 per thousand cubic meters, far from the peaks seen during the 2022 crisis. The European Commission reported this week that, by its calculations, even in a colder winter, Europe has enough reserves and current supplies to avoid acute shortages without the introduction of emergency measures.
Electricity and Renewables. In electricity generation, Europe is also demonstrating resilience but remains dependent on natural factors. Wind and hydroelectric generation experienced setbacks in 2025: due to prolonged calm and summer droughts, electricity production from renewables in several EU countries declined by about 5–7% compared to the previous year. This forced operators to increase the load on traditional capacities. For instance, Germany compensated for the drop in wind output by increasing generation at gas and even coal-fired power plants (electricity production from gas in Germany rose by ~15% year-on-year over the first ten months, while coal generation rose by 4%). Thanks to the availability of reserve capacities and adequate fuel supplies, no serious problems with electricity supply occurred. However, the situation remains fragile: continued weak winds or gas supply disruptions could cause price spikes. European regulators are keeping stabilization tools on standby – from shared gas purchasing mechanisms to a temporary gas price cap introduced last year.
Policy and Plans. Aware of the vulnerabilities in the energy system, EU authorities have intensified efforts to accelerate the energy transition. Investments in energy storage, intergovernmental power networks, and renewable generation are being promoted across the board. Recently, the European Union extended the targeted programs for reducing gas consumption by 15% through 2026 and allocated additional funds for installing heat pumps and improving energy efficiency in buildings. The reform of the electricity market is also being discussed to better integrate renewables and protect consumers from price volatility. In the short term, Europe hopes to get through this winter without turmoil – much will depend on weather conditions. However, strategically, Europeans are drawing lessons from the gas crisis and accelerating their departure from dependencies: by 2030, the EU plans to construct dozens of gigawatts of new renewables, strengthen LNG infrastructure, and, despite contradictions, maintain some nuclear generation to ensure the stability of the energy system.
New Players: Guyana at a Crossroads and Other Projects
New points of production growth continue to appear on the global oil map – especially in developing countries. A notable example is Guyana in South America, where extremely rich oil fields have been discovered in recent years. By 2025, production in Guyana has already exceeded 0.6 million barrels per day, and the country has become an important oil exporter in the Western Hemisphere. Projects led by an international consortium (ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC) are systematically bringing floating production platforms online in the massive offshore Stabroek block. However, Guyana's oil boom is now being challenged by political factors: general elections are expected in December, and the outcome may impact the conditions under which investors operate.
Political Risks. Opposition forces in Guyana have expressed intentions to reconsider agreements with oil companies, deeming the state's share in profits insufficient. Calls are being made to increase the tax burden on the oil sector and achieve a more significant benefit for the country from oil exports. Such statements raise concerns among investors: while existing contracts are protected, uncertainty may impact timelines for new investment decisions. Analysts note that the influx of oil dollars has already significantly accelerated economic growth in Guyana (GDP has risen by several tens of percent), but it has also exposed issues of inequality and income management. The current and future governments face the task of ensuring transparent allocation of oil revenues and balancing the interests of investors and the population.
Other Projects. Besides Guyana, significant projects are also developing on the global energy horizon. In neighboring Suriname, a consortium led by Petronas is preparing to develop recently discovered offshore gas fields Sloanea – a floating LNG plant is expected to be installed, with gas exports beginning in the early 2030s. Namibia has discovered promising oil deposits offshore, and major companies are assessing the commercial potential of the region, which may turn into "new Guyana" in Africa. The Middle East is also advancing: Saudi Arabia is actively promoting a mega-project to develop the Jafura gas field, aiming to become a leader in the export of blue hydrogen and ammonia by the end of the decade. These initiatives demonstrate that, despite the global trend towards a reduction in hydrocarbons, investments in oil and gas extraction are not ceasing – they are merely shifting to new regions and are accompanied by demands for cleaner and more efficient technologies.
Climate Agenda: Expectations Ahead of COP30
At the end of November, global attention will be focused on COP30 – the annual UN climate conference, which this time will be held in Belem (Brazil). Hundreds of countries will again discuss ways to limit global warming, with the energy sector at the center of discussions. The main question is how to balance energy security with the need to reduce emissions. Developed countries and international organizations are calling for a faster phase-out of coal and a gradual reduction in oil and gas consumption over the coming decades. Over 100 countries have already signed declarations for the gradual phase-out of coal generation by the 2040s. The European Union is considering target guidelines for a phased reduction in the use of oil. However, major hydrocarbon producers are approaching such initiatives cautiously. OPEC insists that oil and gas will remain an important part of the energy balance for many years to come, and investment in extraction must continue; otherwise, the world risks facing a new price shock by the end of the decade.
Divided Positions. Heated debates are expected at COP30 between the bloc of countries demanding more decisive actions on decarbonization and states reliant on oil, gas, and coal exports. The former includes many island nations, European countries, and the scientific community – they point to the increased frequency of climate disasters and the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions. The latter – along with OPEC states – join the ranks of some developing countries, arguing that they need time and financing for the transition to clean energy. It is already evident that reaching full consensus will be challenging. Nevertheless, several initiatives are likely to gain traction: including the launch of mechanisms for global carbon quota trading and increasing funds to support green energy in poorer countries.
Business Impact. For investors and energy companies, the climate agenda signifies the strengthening of long-term trends. G7 countries and the EU plan to introduce stricter standards for the carbon footprint of products – for example, emissions calculations during the extraction and transportation of oil may soon affect market access for products. Banks and funds continue to gradually reduce financing for new coal projects and are being more cautious in assessing oil and gas assets with extended payback periods. Meanwhile, the rising demand for metals and technologies for renewables and energy storage is opening new investment opportunities. At COP30, statements on additional contributions to developing hydrogen infrastructure, nuclear energy (as a carbon-free basis for power generation), and large-scale CO2 storage are anticipated. Therefore, the global energy sector is on the brink of significant changes: although oil, gas, and coal still underpin the global energy system, the political direction is increasingly shifting towards sustainable development. The outcomes of the climate summit in Brazil will provide guidance on how rapidly governments intend to move towards reducing fossil fuel utilization in the next decade.
