Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, November 28, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions, Fuel Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Key Event Overview for Investors.
Current developments in the global fuel and energy sector as of November 28, 2025, are marked by mixed signals, attracting the attention of investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts generate cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tensions, with potential peace initiatives being discussed that could relieve sanctions pressure in the long term. At the same time, Western countries maintain a firm sanctions policy, complicating the environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices continue to hover at relatively low levels under the influence of oversupply and weakened demand. The Brent crude benchmark is trading around $61–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is approximately $57, close to the minimum values seen in the past two years and significantly below last year's levels. The European gas market enters winter in a relatively balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is about 75–80% full by the end of November. These reserves provide a solid buffer, and gas exchange prices remain at comparatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty persists; a sudden drop in temperature could lead to price volatility spikes towards the end of the season.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is accelerating – many countries are setting records in electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), although traditional resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into green energy, even though oil, gas, and coal still form the backbone of global energy supply. In Russia, following a recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency government measures have stabilized the domestic oil products market ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have turned downwards, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw material sectors of the energy market as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices at Minimal Levels
The global oil market demonstrates weak price dynamics under the influence of fundamental factors of oversupply and slowing demand. A barrel of Brent is trading within a narrow range of around $61–62, while WTI is approximately $57, about 15% lower than the year-ago level and close to multi-year lows.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for deal participants will increase by another 137,000 barrels per day. Although further quota increases are postponed until at least spring 2026 due to concerns of market oversaturation, the current supply growth is already putting downward pressure on prices.
- Slowing Demand. The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The IEA estimates demand growth in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are now more cautious, estimating around +1.2 million barrels per day. The sluggish global economy and effects from previous price spikes are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
- Geopolitical Factors. Signals regarding a possible peace plan for Ukraine have temporarily reduced some of the geopolitical premium in prices. However, there are still no real agreements, the sanctions regime remains in place, and hence no sustained market calm has occurred. Traders continue to react nervously to the news; without genuine progress, any peace initiatives provide only short-lived effects.
- Shale Production in the USA. Relatively low prices are starting to restrain the activity of American shale companies. The number of drilling rigs in key U.S. oil basins is decreasing as prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel, making new drilling less profitable. If this price environment persists, the supply growth from the USA could noticeably slow.
The combined influence of these factors is leading to a slight surplus in the market: supply currently slightly exceeds demand. Oil prices are being held near recent years' lows. Some analysts note that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent could drop to $50 per barrel in 2026. Meanwhile, the market remains in relative equilibrium, lacking strong impulses for either growth or decline.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Stocks at Moderate Prices
The gas market is currently focused on Europe's passage through the heating season. EU countries are entering the winter cold with underground storage filled to a comfortable 75–80% of their capacity by the end of November. This is slightly below record stocks from the previous autumn and provides a strong buffer in case of prolonged cold weather. Thanks to this and diversified supply sources, European gas prices are being held at low levels: December TTF futures are around €27 per MWh (≈$330 per 1000 cubic meters) – a minimum in over a year.
High stocks have been made possible by record liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. In autumn, European companies actively sourced LNG from the USA, Qatar, and other countries, almost compensating for the reduction in pipeline deliveries from Russia. Over 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived at European ports each month, allowing storage to be filled in advance. An additional factor has been the mild weather; a warm autumn and delayed onset of cold are restraining consumption and enabling gas reserves to be drawn down more slowly than usual.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears stable: reserves are large, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This is favorable for European industry and power generation at the start of winter, reducing costs and the risks of disruptions. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of abnormal cold, the balance could shift quickly, forcing accelerated gas drawdown from UGS and causing price spikes towards the season's end.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives and Sanction Pressure Create Mixed Expectations
In the second half of November, cautious hopes for geopolitical détente emerged. The USA informally presented a peace plan regarding the situation around Ukraine, which involves, among other things, a phased lifting of some sanctions against Russia. According to media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received a signal from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement developed with the involvement of Moscow. The prospect of reaching a compromise instills optimism: de-escalation of the conflict could potentially lift restrictions on Russian energy resource exports and improve the business climate in the raw materials markets.
However, there is still no real breakthrough, and conversely, the West is intensifying sanction pressure. On November 21, a new package of U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. This includes restrictions on major companies like Rosneft and Lukoil, with foreign partners required to fully halt cooperation by this date. In mid-November, the UK and the EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London set a deadline for companies to finalize transactions with these oil giants by November 28, after which any cooperation must cease. The U.S. administration also threatened further harsh measures (including special tariffs on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, there are currently no concrete shifts on the diplomatic front, and the sanction standoff remains in full force. However, the fact that dialogue continues between key players gives hope that the toughest restrictions might be moderated in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. In the coming weeks, markets will closely watch contacts among world leaders: the success of peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric on restrictions, while their failure threatens renewed escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will determine long-term cooperation conditions in the energy sector and the rules of engagement in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Under Sanction Pressure
India and China, the two largest Asian consumers, are being forced to adapt to sanction pressures. Under Western pressure, Indian refiners are scaling back purchases of Russian oil (in particular, Reliance stopped importing Urals by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in return). In China, state-owned companies have temporarily suspended new deals for Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions; however, independent refineries have increased purchases to record levels, taking advantage of the situation. While China is also ramping up its own oil and gas production, the country continues to depend on external supplies for about 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas.
Energy Transition: RES Records and Challenges for Power Systems
Many countries are setting new records for green generation. In the EU, total output from solar and wind for 2024 has, for the first time, surpassed production from coal and gas plants; in the USA, the share of RES exceeded 30% at the beginning of 2025. China is annually introducing record capacities of solar and wind, solidifying its leadership. Investments in clean energy are also at a peak: according to IEA estimates, they will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half directed towards RES, power networks, and energy storage.
Nevertheless, energy systems still rely on traditional generation for stability. The increasing share of solar and wind creates balancing issues since RES do not continuously generate electricity. Gas and, in some cases, coal power plants are still needed to cover peak loads — for instance, last winter, some European countries had to briefly increase coal generation during windless periods. Authorities are rapidly investing in energy storage and "smart" grids to enhance reliability. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources will become the largest in global electricity generation, surpassing coal; however, in the coming years, traditional stations will remain essential as a backup. The energy transition is reaching new heights, but it requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources.
Coal: Stable Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global trend toward decarbonization, coal retains a crucial role in the energy balance. In autumn, China boosted electricity generation at coal-fired power plants to record levels, even though domestic production slightly declined — this raised imports to multi-year highs and pushed global prices up from summer lows. Other major consumers (e.g., India) still generate most of their electricity from coal, and many developing countries are building new coal power plants. Exporters are increasing supplies in response to high demand. After the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices are moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will remain an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts predict that in the next decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will maintain a significant role despite efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The Russian fuel market has reached stabilization following the acute crisis of early autumn. At the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel surged to record heights, resulting in local fuel shortages at some gas stations. The government was forced to intervene: since late September, temporary export restrictions on oil products have been implemented, while refineries have increased fuel output after completing repairs. By mid-October, these measures successfully reversed the price spike.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for A-92 gasoline fell by approximately 4%, A-95 by 3%, and diesel also decreased by about 3%. Stabilization in the wholesale market began to be reflected in retail prices: consumer prices for gasoline have been slowly decreasing for the third consecutive week (although only by a few cents). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of oil products to the domestic market. Collectively, the measures taken have already yielded results: the autumn price surge has transitioned to a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities aim to maintain control over prices, preventing new spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
Outlook for Investors and Participants in the Energy Sector
On one hand, the oversupply and hopes for a peaceful resolution of conflicts are softening prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanction standoff and persistent geopolitical tension are generating significant uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must manage risks carefully and maintain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil, gas, and fuel companies are focusing on enhancing efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid restructuring trade flows while seeking new growth directions — from exploring fields to investing in renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
In the near term, key events will be the OPEC+ meeting in early December and the potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine — their outcome will largely determine market sentiment on the threshold of 2026. Experts recommend adhering to a diversified strategy: combining operational measures for business resilience with the implementation of long-term plans accounting for the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector.
