Detailed Overview of the Situation in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 29, 2025: Oil at Record Lows, Asia Reduces Imports, Sanction Pressures, Price Dynamics, Gas Market, Energy Transition, Coal, Domestic Fuel Market.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of November 29, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting signals, attracting the attention of investors and participants in the energy market. Diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution instill cautious optimism regarding a decrease in geopolitical tension: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that could, in the long term, ease sanction pressures. At the same time, Western nations maintain a tough stance on sanctions, sustaining a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels influenced by an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while the American WTI is in the vicinity of $58, close to multi-year lows and significantly below last year's levels. The European gas market enters winter in a balanced state: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is approximately 75–80% full by the end of November, providing a solid reserve of strength. Exchange quotations for gas remain at relatively low marks. However, the factor of weather uncertainty persists: a sudden cold snap could lead to spikes in price volatility as the season progresses.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is accelerating, with many countries setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), even though traditional resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented funds into "green" energy, despite oil, gas, and coal still forming the foundation of global energy supply. In Russia, following a recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency measures by the government stabilized the domestic market for petroleum products ahead of winter: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have turned downward, eliminating shortages at gas stations. Below is a detailed review of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw material segments of the energy sector as of the present date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
The global oil market is exhibiting sluggish price dynamics under the influence of fundamental factors of oversaturation and slowing demand. A barrel of Brent is trading in a narrow range around $62, while WTI is about $58, approximately 15% lower than a year ago and near multi-year lows. The market is not receiving strong impulses for either growth or further decline, remaining in a state of relative equilibrium. The cumulative effects of current trends are leading to a slight surplus of oil in the market.
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The OPEC+ alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the cumulative production quota for participants in the deal will increase by another 137,000 barrels per day. Although further quota increases are postponed at least until spring 2026 due to concerns about market oversaturation, the current increase in supply is already exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Demand Slowdown: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly decreased. The IEA estimates the increase in demand in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecasts have become more conservative—around +1.2 million barrels per day. A weakening global economy and the effects of previous price spikes are limiting consumption, with an additional factor being the slowdown in industrial growth in China.
Low prices are beginning to affect high-cost producers. In the U.S. shale sector, a reduction in drilling activity is noted as the ~$60 per barrel level approaches profitability for several independent companies. Some analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average Brent price could drop as low as $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, however, oversupply and expectations of a more lenient geopolitical situation keep oil prices under pressure.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with High Reserves at Moderate Prices
The focus in the gas market is on Europe's passage through the heating season. EU countries have approached the winter cold with gas storage filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is only slightly below record levels during the previous autumn and provides a robust buffer in case of prolonged cold weather. Thanks to this and the diversification of supply, European gas prices are held at low levels: December TTF futures are trading around €27 per MWh (approximately $330 per 1000 m³), a minimum in over a year.
High reserves have been made possible by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This autumn, European companies actively sourced LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, nearly offsetting the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived at European ports each month, allowing for timely filling of UGS. An additional factor is the mild weather: a warm autumn and delayed onset of cold weather are restraining consumption and allowing for slower withdrawal from storage.
As a result, the European gas market now appears stable: reserves are large, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is favorable for the industry and power generation in Europe as winter begins, reducing costs and risks of disruption. However, market participants continue to monitor weather forecasts: in the event of anomalous cold, the balance of supply and demand could shift rapidly, forcing accelerated withdrawals from UGS and triggering price spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Offer Hope, Sanction Standoff Resumes
In the second half of November, cautious hopes emerged for a geopolitical thaw. Reports indicate that the U.S. has informally presented a plan for peace in the Ukraine conflict, proposing a gradual lifting of some sanctions against Russia upon fulfillment of agreements. According to media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received a signal from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement developed in collaboration with Moscow. The prospect of achieving a compromise inspires optimism: de-escalation could potentially lift restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources and improve the business climate in raw materials markets.
So far, however, there is no tangible breakthrough; on the contrary, the West is intensifying sanction pressures. On November 21, a new package of U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. Major companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil are subject to these restrictions; foreign counterparts are mandated to completely cease cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, the UK and the EU announced additional measures against Russian energy assets. London granted companies until November 28 to complete any dealings with these oil giants before halting cooperation. The American administration has also threatened further stringent actions (including potential tariffs on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, there have been no concrete movements on the diplomatic front, and the sanction standoff remains fully intact. Nevertheless, the mere fact of continued dialogue between key players offers hope that the most severe restrictions might be eased in anticipation of the negotiations' outcomes. In the coming weeks, the markets will closely watch contacts among global leaders. The success of peace initiatives will improve investor sentiment and soften sanction rhetoric, while their failure could lead to renewed escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will largely determine the long-term cooperation conditions in the energy sector and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanction Pressures
The two largest Asian consumers of energy resources—India and China—are forced to adapt to new restrictions in oil trade.
- India: Under the pressure of Western sanctions, Indian refineries have significantly reduced their purchases of Russian oil. Specifically, Reliance Industries completely halted its imports of Urals crude by November 20, receiving additional price discounts in exchange. Increased banking scrutiny and the risk of secondary sanctions are prompting Indian refineries to seek alternative suppliers, even though Russia accounted for up to one-third of India's total oil imports in 2025.
- China: In China, state-owned oil companies have temporarily halted new import deals for Russian oil out of fear of secondary sanctions. However, independent processors (known as "teapots") capitalized on the situation, ramping up their purchases to record volumes, acquiring feedstock at significant discounts. While China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, the country remains approximately 70% dependent on oil imports and 40% on gas imports, critically reliant on external supplies.
Energy Transition: Records in RES and Challenges for Energy Systems
In many countries around the world, new records for "green" generation are being established. In the European Union, as of the end of 2024, total electricity generation from solar and wind sources has, for the first time, surpassed production from coal and gas power plants. In the U.S., the share of renewable sources exceeded 30% at the start of 2025. China consistently introduces record capacities of solar and wind power plants, solidifying its leadership in the RES sector. Investments in clean energy are also hitting new highs: according to IEA estimates, global investments in energy transformation will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half of that sum allocated to RES, modernizing electricity grids, and energy storage systems.
However, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability. The rise in the share of solar and wind presents balancing challenges, as RES do not generate electricity continuously. Gas plants, and in some instances coal plants, are still required to cover peak loads—last winter, several countries in Europe had to temporarily increase coal generation during windless periods. Various governments are accelerating investments in large energy storage systems and "smart" grids in an effort to enhance energy systems' reliability.
Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest segment in global electricity generation, surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, traditional plants will remain necessary as reserves and insurance. The energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between green technologies and proven resources to ensure continuous energy supply.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal continues to play a key role in the energy balance. This autumn, coal-fired power generation in China reached record levels, even though domestic coal production saw a slight decline. Consequently, coal imports into China surged to multi-year highs, lifting global prices from dismal summer lows. Other major consumers, such as India, still derive most of their electricity from coal, and many developing countries continue to build new coal power plants. Coal exporters have increased supplies, taking advantage of strong demand for the raw material.
After the upheavals of 2022, the coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices moderate. Even with the implementation of climate strategies, coal will continue to be an indispensable component of energy supply in the coming years. Analysts anticipate that over the next decade, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will retain significant relevance despite ongoing efforts to reduce emissions.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization Post-Autumn Crisis
The internal fuel market in Russia has reached stabilization after the acute crisis of early autumn. By the end of summer, wholesale gasoline and diesel prices in the country soared to record highs, causing a local fuel shortage at several gas stations. The government had to intervene: from late September, temporary restrictions on fuel exports were introduced, while refineries ramped up production following the completion of scheduled repairs. By mid-October, these measures had successfully reversed the price spike.
The decline in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for gasoline AI-92 dropped by about 4%, AI-95 by 3%, and diesel also saw approximately a 3% decrease. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to reflect in retail as well: consumer prices for gasoline have been gradually decreasing for the third consecutive week (although by just a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at guaranteeing priority supply of petroleum products to the domestic market.
Overall, the measures taken have already shown results: the autumn price surge has given way to a decline, and the situation in the fuel market is gradually normalizing. Authorities intend to maintain control over prices to prevent further spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
Outlook for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
On one hand, the oversupply and hopes for peaceful conflict resolution are softening prices and risks. On the other hand, the ongoing sanction standoff and persistent geopolitical tension create significant uncertainty. Investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector must especially manage risks carefully and retain flexibility in these conditions.
Oil, gas, and fuel companies are now focusing on improving efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid the restructuring of trade flows. Simultaneously, they are seeking new growth opportunities—from resource development to investments in renewable energy and storage infrastructure. Key events in the near term will include the OPEC+ meeting in early December and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine: the outcomes will largely shape market sentiments on the threshold of 2026.
Experts advise adhering to a diversified strategy. It is wise to combine operational measures for business resilience with the realization of long-term plans that account for the accelerating energy transition and the new configuration of the global energy sector. This approach will help companies and investors navigate current challenges and take advantage of emerging opportunities in the dynamically changing energy market.
