Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of January 14, 2026: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanction Policies, Supply and Demand Balance, Refinery Market, Renewable Energy, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Sector.
The latest developments in the global fuel and energy sector as of January 14, 2026, are characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing price pressures due to an oversupply. Diplomatic efforts for resolution are underway; however, the conflict surrounding Ukraine remains far from resolution, and the United States is preparing to intensify sanction pressures on Russian energy exports. Simultaneously, the oil market remains oversaturated: Brent crude prices are hovering around $62-63 per barrel, nearly 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting an oversupply and moderate demand. The European gas market demonstrates relative stability: gas storage levels in the EU, although decreasing in the midst of winter, still exceed 55% of capacity, keeping prices at a moderate level (~€30/MWh). In parallel, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – 2025 saw record levels of solar and wind capacity additions; however, to ensure the reliability of energy systems, countries have not yet turned away from traditional oil, gas, and coal sources. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain under downward pressure due to an oversupply and insufficient demand. The North Sea Brent benchmark is trading around $63 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $59. These levels are approximately 15-20% below last year's prices, indicating a continued market correction following the price spike of previous years. Several factors support the current situation in the oil market:
- Increase in Non-OPEC Production: Global oil supply is rising thanks to active production in countries outside of OPEC+. In 2025, supplies from Brazil, Guyana, and other nations have notably increased. For instance, production in Brazil reached a record 3.8 million b/d, and Guyana increased its output to 0.9 million b/d, expanding oil exports to new markets. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela have partly increased their exports due to partial easing of restrictions, contributing more oil to the global market.
- OPEC+'s Cautious Stance: OPEC+ countries are not rushing to cut production again. Despite the price decline, official production quotas remain unchanged following previous restrictions. As a result, additional oil from OPEC+ remains in the market as the organization aims to maintain its market share, accepting lower prices in the short term.
- Demand Deceleration: Global oil demand is growing at more modest rates. Analysts estimate that consumption growth in 2025 was less than 1 million b/d compared to 2-3 million b/d the previous year. Economic growth in China and several developed nations has slowed to around 4% annually, limiting fuel consumption growth. High prices from previous years have also prompted energy conservation and a shift to alternative energy sources, dampening demand for hydrocarbons.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The ongoing conflict and sanctions create conflicting factors for the oil market. On one hand, risks of disruptions from sanctions or conflict escalation support some premium in prices. On the other hand, the absence of clear supply disruptions and reports of ongoing negotiations among major powers somewhat reduce market participants' fears. As a result, prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, receiving no impetus for either increase or crash.
Overall, supply currently exceeds demand, creating a market situation close to oversupply for oil. Global commercial oil and product inventories continue to rise. Brent and WTI prices remain well below the peaks of 2022-2023. Many investors and oil companies are factoring in "low" prices in their strategies: several forecasts indicate that in the first quarter of 2026, the average price of Brent could drop to $55-60 per barrel if the current oversupply persists. In these conditions, oil companies are focusing on cost control and selective investments, preferring short-term projects and natural gas initiatives.
Natural Gas Market: Europe Endures Winter Without Crisis
In the gas market, the primary focus is on Europe, where a relatively calm situation prevails amidst the winter. EU countries have entered the heating season with high inventories: by early January, the average fill level of European gas storage facilities exceeded 60% (compared to a record 70% the previous year). Even after several weeks of active gas withdrawals, the storage facilities remain more than half full, providing a buffer for the energy system. Contributing factors that support the stability of the European gas market include:
- Record LNG Imports: The European Union is fully utilizing global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity. By the end of 2025, aggregate LNG imports into Europe increased by approximately 25%, reaching around 130 billion cubic meters per year, compensating for the cessation of most pipeline gas supplies from Russia. In December, LNG vessels continued to actively arrive at EU terminals, covering increased winter demand.
- Moderate Demand and Mild Weather: So far, winter in Europe has been relatively mild, and the energy system is managing without extreme loads. Industrial gas consumption has remained restrained due to last year's high prices and energy-saving measures. Wind and solar generation performed strongly in early winter 2025/26, which also reduced gas consumption for electricity generation.
- Diversification of Supply: The European Union has recently developed new energy import routes. In addition to LNG, pipelines from Norway and North Africa are operating at full capacity. The capacity of terminals and cross-border connections within Europe has been expanded, allowing for the swift redistribution of gas to where it is needed. This smooths local imbalances and prevents price spikes.
Thanks to these factors, spot gas prices in Europe remain at relatively low levels. Futures on the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $370 per thousand cubic meters) – significantly below the peak values of the 2022 crisis. Although prices have recently risen slightly (by 7-8%) due to a brief cold snap and maintenance at some fields, the market overall remains balanced. Moderate gas prices are positively impacting the European industry and power sector, reducing enterprise costs and tariff pressure on consumers. Europe faces the remaining winter months ahead: even if the cold intensifies, the accumulated reserves are likely sufficient to avoid deficits. Analysts estimate that by the end of winter, about 35-40% of gas could remain in storage, which is significantly higher than critical levels in previous years. However, some risk pertains to a possible revival of Asian demand – in the second quarter of 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for new LNG shipments could intensify if economic growth in Asian countries continues.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Intensifying Measures from the US and Lack of Breakthroughs in Negotiations
The geopolitical situation continues to exert significant influence on energy markets. In recent months, diplomatic efforts have been made to resolve the conflict in Eastern Europe: a series of consultations between representatives from the US, EU, Ukraine, and Russia have taken place since November 2025. However, these negotiations have not yet yielded tangible progress. Moscow has not shown readiness to make concessions, while Kyiv and its allies insist on acceptable security guarantees. Against the backdrop of the prolonged standoff, Washington signals its readiness to intensify sanction pressures.
New US Sanction Bill: At the beginning of January, the US administration publicly supported a bipartisan bill proposing tough measures against countries aiding in circumventing sanctions or actively trading with Russia. In particular, "secondary sanctions" targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas are proposed. Major importers of Russian energy, such as China, India, Turkey, and several other Asian countries may be affected. Washington signals that if these nations do not reduce their purchases from Moscow, they might face restrictions on access to US markets or 100% tariffs on their exports to the US. The bill has already received the "green light" from the White House and may be brought to a vote in Congress shortly. Such a step would be unprecedented for the global oil and gas market: effectively, some buyers could find themselves under sanctions, which could reshape trade flows of oil and complicate the pricing situation.
Reactions and Risks for the Market: Major consumers, particularly China and India, are under scrutiny. India has been benefiting from significant discounts on Urals crude oil (up to $5 off Brent prices) for some time in exchange for maintaining purchase volumes – this "favorable" regime has allowed New Delhi to increase imports of Russian crude and products. China has also ramped up imports from Russia, becoming the main market for Russian oil after the European embargo was introduced. The US plans to impose secondary sanctions have provoked sharp disapproval from Beijing and New Delhi: these countries state their intention to defend their energy security. If the law is enacted, they will likely seek ways to circumvent new restrictions – for instance, through settlements in national currencies, shadow tanker fleets, or refining Russian oil in third countries for re-export. Markets are closely monitoring the developments: the threats of sanctions add uncertainty and could heighten price volatility, especially for Urals crude and the tanker shipping market. Currently, however, existing sanctions remain unchanged, and there are no significant disruptions in the supply of Russian oil to the global market – volumes have been redirected to Asia, albeit at a discount.
US-Russia Negotiations: Despite the tough rhetoric, the channel of dialogue between Washington and Moscow remains open. After a meeting between the leaders in August 2025 (where it was decided to continue consultations), special representatives from both sides have discussed potential agreement parameters several times. In December, the US side proposed a framework plan for Ukraine's security in exchange for the gradual easing of some energy sanctions, but Moscow demanded that its conditions be taken into account, including the lifting of some export restrictions and guarantees regarding the non-expansion of NATO military infrastructure. These disagreements remain unresolved. Meanwhile, US European allies expressed their readiness to continue applying pressure on Russia until the situation improves – new EU restrictions on the maritime transportation of Russian oil products above the price cap have come into effect. Thus, tensions continue to exist on the political front: the prospects for a swift easing of sanctions are minimal. For investors in the energy sector, this implies that sanction risks will continue to be factored into trading operations and investments, especially in projects related to Russia.
Venezuela: Change of Course and Growth Potential in Oil Production
Another significant event that could impact the long-term dynamics of the oil market has been changes in Venezuela. By the end of 2025, the situation surrounding this South American country had dramatically changed: the government of Nicolás Maduro effectively lost control after he was detained during a special operation with the assistance of foreign forces. The US has expressed support for establishing a transitional administration in Caracas and plans to involve American oil companies in reviving Venezuela's oil sector. For many years, a country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world produced less than 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions, lack of investment, and deteriorating infrastructure.
The new political conditions open the prospect for a gradual increase in Venezuelan oil production. Analysts estimate that with relative stability in the country and influx of investment from the US and other countries, production in Venezuela could rise by 200-300 thousand barrels per day in the next year or two. The optimistic scenario from JPMorgan suggests reaching a level of 1.3-1.4 million b/d within two years (up from ~1.1 million in 2025), and over the decade reaching 2.5 million b/d if significant modernization projects are realized in the industry. Reports have already emerged in the initial days following the change of government about plans to audit the condition of PDVSA's fields and infrastructure and involve international partners in restarting idle wells.
However, experts caution that quick results should not be expected. The Venezuelan oil industry requires extensive overhaul – from repairs of refineries to investments in port infrastructure. Required investments are estimated in the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Furthermore, there are lingering questions about the legitimacy of the regime change and long-term political risks. Some countries, allies of the former regime, have condemned foreign interference; Russia, for example, has stated that control over Venezuelan oil should not pass to the US. This indicates that diplomatic frictions could arise surrounding the Venezuelan issue.
For the global market, the increase in exports from Venezuela in the coming months will be modest but symbolically significant. A resurgence in the supply of heavy Venezuelan crude to American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico has already been observed, based on licenses issued by the new administration. In the mid-term, additional Venezuelan volumes could enhance competition in the heavy crude segment dominated by OPEC. According to Goldman Sachs, if production in Venezuela were to rise to 2 million b/d in the future, this could lower the equilibrium price of Brent by $3-4 by 2030. Although those volumes are still far off, investors are factoring in the potential emergence of a "new-old" player in the market. Overall, the situation in Venezuela adds another factor to the global oversupply, reinforcing expectations that the period of relatively low oil prices may be prolonged.
Energy Transition: Record Green Generation and Coal's Role
The global energy landscape continues to shift toward low-carbon sources, although fossil fuels still hold a significant share in the energy balance. The year 2025 was a record year for renewable sources: according to estimates from the International Energy Agency, approximately 580 GW of new renewable capacity was introduced globally. More than 90% of all new power plants launched last year operate on solar, wind, or hydro energy. As a result, the share of renewable generation in electricity production has reached historical highs in several countries.
Europe and the US: In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewables surpassed 50% for the first time by the end of the year. Wind farms in the North Sea, solar farms in Southern Europe, and bioenergy provided the primary increase. This allowed the EU to reduce coal and gas burning for generation by 5% and 3%, respectively, compared to the previous year. The share of coal in the EU's energy balance returned to a declining trajectory after a temporary spike in 2022-2023. In the US, the renewable energy sector also reached new heights: major solar stations in Texas and California, and wind installations in the Midwest were launched. As a result, nearly 25% of American electricity now comes from renewables – a historical high. Government initiatives and tax incentives (for instance, within the framework of the federal Inflation Reduction Act) stimulate further investments in clean energy.
Asia and Developing Markets: There is also rapid growth in renewable energy in China and India, although absolute consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise there. China set a record with 130 GW of solar panels and 50 GW of wind energy in one year, bringing total renewable capacity to 1.2 TW. However, the fast-growing economy requires increasing amounts of electricity: to avoid shortages, Beijing is simultaneously ramping up coal extraction and coal-fired power plant construction. As a result, China still generates about 60-65% of its electricity from coal. India faces a similar situation: the country is boosting solar and wind capacities (over 20 GW added in 2025), but more than 70% of India's electricity is still generated at coal stations. To meet rising demand, New Delhi has approved the construction of new high-efficiency coal units, despite climate goals. Many other developing economies in Asia and Africa (such as Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, etc.) are also balancing the development of renewables while needing to expand traditional generation to ensure baseline load.
Energy System Challenges: The rapid growth of solar and wind shares poses new challenges for energy utilities. Periodic surges in renewable generation require the development of energy storage systems and backup capacity. Even now, in Europe and the US, during peak loading hours or adverse weather conditions, grid operators must rely on gas and even coal plants to balance the system. In 2025, several countries noted periods when, due to calm weather and nighttime, the share of renewables dropped, and traditional power plants temporarily bore the main load. To enhance the flexibility of energy systems, energy storage projects are scaling – from industrial batteries to the production of "green" hydrogen for seasonal storage. However, fossil fuel reserves remain critically important for stable energy supply. Forecasts indicate that global coal demand in 2026 will remain close to record levels (around 8.8 billion tons annually) and will only start to noticeably decline by the end of the decade as the adoption of clean technologies accelerates and countries fulfill their climate commitments.
Fuel Products and Refining Market: Oversupply of Capacity Reduces Fuel Prices
The global fuel products market at the beginning of 2026 is in a favorable state for consumers. Prices for major fuel types – gasoline and diesel – are maintained at significantly lower levels than last year, largely due to the decline in oil prices and the expansion of supply from refineries. Throughout 2025, new refining capacities came online, enhancing competition among fuel producers and increasing the available volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the international market.
Capacity Growth in Asia and the Middle East: The largest investment projects in refining, launched in recent years, are starting to bear fruit. In China, several modern refineries ("petrochemical complexes") have gone into full operation, cumulatively raising the country’s installed capacity to about 20 million b/d – the largest in the world. Beijing aimed to cap national capacity at 1 billion tons per year (about 20 million b/d), and this threshold is nearly reached. The excess refining capacity within the country is already causing some older smaller plants in China to operate on reduced loads or possibly face closure in the coming years. In the Middle East, the gigantic Al-Zour oil refinery in Kuwait has fully come online, with expansion projects underway in Saudi Arabia (including new complexes involving foreign partners). These new plants are targeted not only at domestic demand but also for exporting fuel – primarily to Asian countries and Africa, where demand for fuel products continues to grow.
Stabilization of the Diesel Market in Europe: The European Union, which experienced tension in the diesel market in 2022-2023 due to the cessation of Russian imports, managed to reorient logistics and avoid shortages in 2025. Imports of diesel fuel and aviation kerosene into Europe from the Middle East, India, China, and the US increased, compensating for the loss of Russian exports. India's refineries, benefiting from discounted Russian oil, produce surplus diesel fuel, a significant portion of which then heads to Europe and African countries. This "shift" has helped hold European diesel prices steady even during peak summer demand. Within the EU, refiners also increased their product output: Mediterranean and Eastern European refineries operated at high load, partially offsetting the closure of some outdated plants in Western Europe. As a result, wholesale diesel prices in Europe decreased by approximately 15% by the end of 2025 compared to the start of the year, helping to alleviate inflationary pressure.
Refining Margins and Prospects: For petroleum refiners, the situation is mixed: on one hand, cheaper oil reduces raw material costs, while on the other hand, fuel oversupply and competition compress margins. Following record-high margins in 2022, refiners faced tightening conditions in 2025. The average global margin decreased, especially for diesel and fuel oil production. In Asia, some refineries cut production and shifted to producing petrochemical products with higher added value due to gasoline oversupply. In Europe, stringent biofuel content requirements and environmental standards are also increasing refinery costs, pushing the industry toward consolidation and modernization. Global refining capacities are expected to continue growing in 2026 – new projects in East Africa and expansions in the US are on the horizon. This indicates that competition in the fuel products market will remain high, and gasoline and diesel prices will likely stay relatively low unless there is a sharp spike in oil prices.
Outlook and Upcoming Events
At the beginning of 2026, investors and market participants in the fuel and energy sector are carefully assessing how key factors influencing prices and the supply-demand balance will evolve. In the coming months, the dynamics of global fuel and energy markets will be influenced by the following points:
- Decisions on Sanctions and the Course of the Conflict: Whether the new US sanction bill against Russian oil buyers will be approved and implemented and its consequences for the global market (potential supply reductions, reshaping trade flows, and political reactions from China/India) will be one of the main factors of uncertainty. Simultaneously, markets are watching for any signals of progress or failure in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine – this directly impacts sanction policies and investor sentiment.
- OPEC+ Strategy: Attention will be focused on the oil alliance's policy. If oil prices continue to decline, there may be an extraordinary meeting or a reconsideration of quotas. A regular OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for spring, and markets are expectant to see whether measures to cut production for price support will be taken or if the cartel will continue to allow prices to remain at comparatively low levels to maintain market share.
- Economic Dynamics and Demand: The state of the global economy, particularly in China, the US, and the EU, will be crucial for energy demand. If a GDP or industrial production acceleration is noted in the second half of 2026 following stimulus measures, it could elevate oil and LNG consumption, slightly reducing the oversupply. Conversely, recession risks or financial shocks may lower fuel demand. Moreover, seasonal recoveries in air travel (jet fuel) and automotive traffic in spring and summer will also impact the refined products market.
- End of Winter and Preparation for the Next Season: The outcomes of the current winter for the gas market will determine the strategy for 2026. If Europe avoids energy shortages and substantial gas reserves remain in storage, it will ease the task of refilling storage facilities for the next winter and may keep prices low. A significant event will be the summer injection season of 2026: with an expected increase in global LNG supply (new projects in the US and Qatar coming online), Europe aims to achieve 90% storage capacity by autumn. The market will evaluate whether this can be accomplished without price spikes and without fierce competition with Asian importers.
- Energy Transition and Companies' Investments: There will be continued observation of how energy corporations redistribute capital between fossil and renewable directions. In 2026, a reduction in investments in oil production is expected in the face of low prices – particularly among independent companies in North America and international majors focusing on financial discipline. Simultaneously, there is likely to be an increase in investment in LNG projects (increased exports from North America and Africa) and in green energy. Any new government initiatives regarding decarbonization (for example, tightening climate goals at upcoming climate summits) or, conversely, steps supporting fossil fuel extraction will directly impact long-term expectations about demand and prices.
Overall, industry experts provide a cautiously positive outlook for consumers in 2026: high market sufficiency for oil and gas should prevent sharp price increases. However, this implies that producers will need to adapt to the new reality – a period of lower margins and heightened focus on efficiency. Geopolitical factors remain a "wild card": unexpected events – whether breakthroughs in peace negotiations, major force majeure at production facilities, or new trade wars – could instantaneously shiftbalances. Participants in the fuel and energy market approach the start of the year with caution, developing strategies capable of withstanding a variety of scenario developments.
