Oil Market: Brent at $87 — Market Awaiting Hormuz Deal
Oil prices are finishing the week mixed. Brent is trading around $87 per barrel after a 2.2% decline on Thursday, while WTI is hovering around $81. Since the onset of the conflict involving the US and Israel with Iran in late February, the international benchmark has risen by approximately one quarter, with an annual increase exceeding 30%. Key factors influencing price dynamics include:
- Status of the Hormuz Strait: The key maritime corridor through which about one-fifth of global oil supplies passed before the war remains formally blocked. Iran and Oman are negotiating shipping routes, but no agreement has been reached; Tehran is demanding the lifting of the US maritime blockade as a precondition for fully reopening the strait.
- Actual Flows: Despite the deadlock in negotiations, oil continues to leave the Persian Gulf — US estimates indicate that up to 9 million barrels per day transit through the strait, with some tankers operating with transponders turned off, and US Navy escort capabilities for vessels are expanding. Attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure continue to maintain a risk premium.
- Supply Deficit: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the shortage of oil in the global market this quarter at 1.8 million barrels per day — double the previous forecast; in July, supply remained 6.3 million b/d lower than last year’s levels.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) does not anticipate a return of Middle Eastern production to pre-war levels before early 2027 and forecasts an average Brent price of $87 per barrel for 2026.
Demand Under Pressure: IEA and OPEC Cut Projections
The flip side of the price shock is the destruction of demand. This week, the IEA lowered its forecast for global oil consumption, warning that the protracted conflict and high prices are increasingly pressuring economic activity. OPEC, in turn, reduced its estimate of global demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day — the fourth consecutive downward revision. An additional bearish signal came from the US: commercial oil inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels in just one week — a record weekly increase — amid significant withdrawals from the strategic reserve and a sharp rise in imports. Several analysts believe that the peak shortage in the market was reached in May-June; however, the future price trajectory hinges entirely on the conflict's progression and the status of the Hormuz Strait.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Record Low Stocks
The European gas market remains the most vulnerable link in global energy. TTF hub prices fluctuated between €56 and €62 per MWh during the week, soaring over 10% at the start of the week on news of supply risks. Key issues include:
- Low Stocks: EU underground storage facilities are only about 55-58% full — the lowest level for mid-August since records began in 2009, and approximately 22 percentage points below the five-year average. Brussels has already reduced the mandatory filling target from 90% to 80% by November 1, but this is also at risk.
- LNG Shortage: Qatar's liquefied natural gas shipments through the Hormuz Strait are significantly delayed, and competition with Asia for available cargoes has intensified amidst a hot summer.
- The Norwegian Factor: Extended maintenance at the Ormen Lange field until February 2027 could remove more than 1 billion cubic meters of gas from the market during the heating season.
Banks and energy companies are raising price targets: Commerzbank has raised its year-end forecast to €50 per MWh, while Uniper expects a range of €50-60 as long as the strait remains closed. The heat in Europe further boosts demand for electricity for air conditioning, intensifying pressure on the gas balance.
Electricity and Renewables: Solar and Wind Breaking Records
Amidst the hydrocarbon storm, renewable energy shows structural breakthroughs. According to the Ember analytical center, by 2026, the combined output of solar and wind farms in Europe could exceed gas generation for the longest period in recorded history — monthly renewable output reached 80-110 TWh. The global picture is equally impressive: in 2025, the world added a record 800 GW of renewable capacity (+16% year-on-year), with over 600 GW coming from solar energy; China accounted for about 60% of the world's increase. For the first time in history, solar has become the largest source of covering the growth in global energy consumption. In the US, wind and solar provided a record 17% of electricity generation, and by 2026, almost all net new generating capacity will be provided by renewables and storage systems. High gas and oil prices are merely accelerating investments in clean generation, storage systems, and grids.
Coal: Beneficiary of the Energy Crisis
The coal market is strengthening due to fuel switching effects. Newcastle thermal coal futures have stabilized around $130 per ton — approximately 17% higher than last year’s level: expensive oil and gas are enhancing the appeal of coal generation in importing countries across Europe and Asia. China has unveiled a five-year development plan for its coal industry, focusing on the consolidation and digitization of mines to create a reserve capacity exceeding 100 million tons per year. India is increasing its own production — in July, output grew by 7.5% year-on-year, reducing reliance on imports. In the short term, coal remains a hedge for the electricity systems in Asia against gas shortages and high oil prices.
Russia: Export Ban on Fuel Extended until the End of January 2027
The internal market for oil products in Russia continues to operate under manual control. The government has extended the complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline until January 31, 2027, expanding restrictions to both producers and traders; the regime for exporting diesel fuel, marine fuel, and gas oils has also been tightened. Reasons and accompanying measures include:
- The intensification of drone attacks on refineries in early August led to the shutdown of several plants and a reduction in gasoline sales on exchanges;
- Exchange prices have stabilized at high levels: the AI-92 index remains around 71,400 rubles per ton, while AI-95 is approximately 76,000 rubles per ton;
- Authorities have permitted the production of Euro-3 class fuel and simplified the importation of oil products from friendly countries;
- A mechanism for direct contracts between plants and suppliers bypassing the exchange is being developed to reduce speculative pressure.
Experts anticipate a gradual normalization of supply by the end of August and do not rule out a noticeable decrease in wholesale prices no earlier than the fourth quarter — provided there are no new unexpected shutdowns of refineries.
What This Means for Investors and Participants in the Energy Sector
The market has entered a phase of fragile equilibrium: the geopolitical premium in oil is colliding with growing signs of demand destruction, while the European gas market is pricing in the risk of a supply-constrained winter. For investors, key indicators for the coming weeks include:
- Negotiations on the Hormuz Strait — any progress could trigger a 10-15% drop in oil and gas prices, while the breakdown of dialogue could push Brent back to $90 and above.
- Gas Injection Rates in Europe’s Underground Storage — Falling behind schedule by the end of September could provoke early pricing of winter shortages on TTF.
- Data on Stocks and Demand in the US and China — confirmation of weakness in consumption would reinforce a corrective scenario in oil.
- The Situation with Russian Refineries — the recovery of refining capacity is crucial for the balance of the domestic fuel market and the timelines for easing export restrictions.
Day's Summary: Key Energy Sector Figures as of August 15, 2026
- Brent — around $87 per barrel; WTI — around $81;
- Global oil market deficit — 1.8 million b/d in the current quarter (IEA estimate);
- Forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 — 580,000 b/d (OPEC, fourth consecutive downward revision);
- Gas TTF — €56-62 per MWh; EU underground storage filling — about 55-58%;
- Newcastle coal — around $130 per ton (+17% year-on-year);
- Export ban on gasoline from Russia — extended until January 31, 2027.
Saturday in the energy markets will be marked by anticipation: the fate of the Hormuz Strait remains the key pricing factor for oil, gas, coal, and electricity worldwide. Investors and energy companies should prepare for increased volatility — autumn 2026 promises to test the resilience of the entire global energy system.
