The major intrigue of the week is the preparation for Anthropic's IPO. The company's CFO has begun preliminary meetings with institutional investors, and the market is speculating on a potential valuation of around $2 trillion at a listing on Nasdaq as early as October. Simultaneously, capital is actively flowing into "hard" technologies: defence startups, nuclear energy, energy storage systems, and AI infrastructure. Below are the key events and trends shaping the agenda of the venture market for Saturday, 15 August 2026.
- The Anthropic IPO is nearing the finish line. Preliminary meetings with investors, a target listing in October, and a probability of an offering by the end of the year ranging from 76-80% according to prediction markets.
- A record half-year for the global venture industry. $510 billion in investments over six months and 16 rounds of funding at or above $1 billion just in the second quarter.
- Defence technologies hit historical highs. Over $14.6 billion has been invested in the sector since the beginning of the year—a record from 2025 surpassed even before summer's end.
- Energy becomes the second favourite after AI. Billion-dollar rounds in energy storage, nuclear projects, and data centre infrastructure.
- New funds and "dry powder." The launch of Craft Ventures' $1 billion fund and the activity of mega funds is fueling the market with capital.
- Russia and CIS: cautious recovery. A projected growth of the local venture market by 10-15% and the launch of new funds worth 10 billion rubles.
The Anthropic IPO: A rehearsal for the largest placement in AI history
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude model family, is on the verge of going public. The CFO is conducting a series of preliminary meetings with the largest institutional investors—a standard step before the formal roadshow. The company confidentially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, ahead of OpenAI by a week, and now the consensus among underwriters points to a Nasdaq listing in October 2026.
The scale of the deal is unprecedented. The last private round, Series H-1, raised $65 billion in May, valuing Anthropic at $965 billion, while the secondary market is already trading the company's shares at an implied valuation of $1.05–1.15 trillion. Some forecasts allow for a capitalization of around $2 trillion in the event of a successful placement. Prediction markets assess the IPO’s probability before the end of 2026 at 76-80%. The organizers are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, with an expected fundraising amount of at least $60 billion. OpenAI, according to media reports, is leaning towards postponing its own listing to 2027, ceding the status of the first public AI lab to its competitor.
A record half-year: $510 billion and unprecedented capital concentration
The first half of 2026 marked the strongest period in the history of the venture industry. Global investments reached $510 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2025 ($440 billion). North America attracted $392 billion—a historical high for the region. Meanwhile, capital is concentrating in a narrow circle of companies: in the second quarter, 16 startups closed rounds of funding worth over $1 billion for a total of $108.6 billion, accounting for 53% of quarterly financing.
For venture funds, this represents a dual reality. On one hand, the exit window is wide open: the second quarter was one of the strongest periods for exits in recent years, as IPOs and M&As have returned in full force. On the other hand, the number of deals is growing significantly slower than the volumes, while competition for access to segment leaders is intensifying to unprecedented levels.
This week’s mega-rounds: from defence machinery to nuclear reactors
The August series of billion-dollar deals confirms investors' shift towards the "physical" layer of the tech economy:
- Hadrian — $1.37 billion in Series D round at a valuation of $7.87 billion for automated defence manufacturing; the deal was led by WCM Investment Management, Washington Harbour Partners, and Valor Equity Partners.
- Base Power — $1 billion in Series D at a valuation of $13 billion for home energy storage; among the investors are Ribbit Capital, Addition, and a strategic unit of JPMorgan.
- Valar Atomics — $1 billion in Series B led by Sequoia Capital for the development of small nuclear reactors plus a $200 million credit line.
- Form Energy — $750 million in Series G led by T. Rowe Price for scaling iron-air batteries for long-term energy storage.
- Lovable — $400 million in Series C at a valuation of $13.3 billion: the Swedish "vibe-coding" platform solidifies its status as the fastest-growing AI startup in Europe.
The overall signal of the week is clear: the largest checks in venture history are being written to companies that possess heavy, physical, or regulated layers of the AI economy, rather than software add-ons built on someone else's infrastructure.
Defence technologies: a historical record long before year-end
The sector of defence and national security startups is experiencing a structural boom. Since the beginning of 2026, the industry has attracted over $14.6 billion—last year's record of $9.6 billion was exceeded even before summer. The frontrunner is Anduril Industries with a Series H round of $5 billion at a valuation of $61 billion. Shield AI raised $1.5 billion at a valuation of $12.7 billion, and the developer of autonomous marine vessels Saronic raised $1.75 billion. A separate trend is the record activity from corporations: defence giants like Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Airbus participated in venture rounds worth $4.1 billion, the highest ever recorded.
IPO Market: Lessons from SpaceX and the queue for Anthropic
Public markets remain open but demanding. The case of SpaceX is indicative: the company completed the largest IPO in history in June with a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, with shares soaring to $2.5 trillion. However, after the first quarterly report, which reshaped expectations regarding capital expenditures on AI, the capitalization retreated to $1.4 trillion. For investors, this serves as a reminder that even cult issuers undergo rigorous re-evaluation by the public market.
Nonetheless, the pipeline for offerings remains active: quantum developer Quantinuum raised $1.68 billion in an oversubscribed IPO, and since the beginning of the year, the volume of primary offerings in the U.S. has more than tripled year-on-year, with Databricks, Cerebras, Wealthfront, and dozens of companies with confidential filings in line for listing.
New funds: "dry powder" continues to accumulate
Capital supply is keeping pace with demand. Craft Ventures, led by David Sacks, has announced a $1 billion fund focused on AI. European players are strengthening their positions: Earlybird, with assets of around €2.5 billion, is lobbying for increased institutional capital for startups on the continent. In India, seven rounds were closed in one day on August 13, involving Peak XV Partners, SMBC Asia Rising Fund, and Anicut Capital—developing markets are maintaining a high pace of early-stage deals.
Russia and CIS: recovery based on funds
The local market is gradually emerging from prolonged stagnation. Industry participants forecast that in 2026, the Russian venture market volume may grow by 10-15% and approach 17 billion rubles, with the first half of the year already showing a growth of around 70% following several years of decline. The drivers are private and government funds: Kama Flow and "Medscan" have launched 10 billion ruble funds each, while the Moscow venture fund is ramping up its deal portfolio with partners. The activity of angel investors, according to managers, is expected to recover only as the key interest rate decreases.
What this means for investors: insights as of 15 August 2026
The venture market is entering autumn 2026 in a phase of record liquidity and equally record selectivity. Key benchmarks for funds and LPs:
- Concentration is the new norm. Almost half of the global capital is going to two companies; access to segment leaders is becoming the main competitive advantage for funds.
- Infrastructure is more important than applications. Valuations are climbing for owners of computation, energy, production, and data—software add-ons face stricter scrutiny for defensibility.
- The exit window is open, but the public market is disciplining. SpaceX's post-report re-evaluation serves as a warning for anyone planning offerings at the upper end of the range.
- The Anthropic IPO will be a stress test for the entire AI wave. The success or failure of the October listing will set pricing benchmarks for private rounds for quarters to come.
Saturday, 15 August 2026, records the market at the peak of its cycle: capital is becoming cheaper for the select few and more expensive for everyone else. For venture investors, this is a time for discipline—and possibly the best time in a decade for those who can pick wisely.
