Key themes shaping the agenda for venture investors and funds as of October 16, 2026:
- Quarterly Summary. Capital is concentrating in mega-rounds, with AI's share of global venture financing nearing two-thirds.
- New decacorns in AI infrastructure. Modal Labs and Applied Intuition demonstrate exponential growth in valuations over a few months.
- Preparing for Anthropic's IPO. The market awaits the public S-1 form, the timing of which affects the window for the November placement.
- European deep tech. Photonics, energy storage, and government funds support the region's best quarter in four years.
- Early Stages. Seed rounds of $50–60 million are becoming the norm for teams with strong technological foundations.
Venture Market in Q3 2026: Less Money, More Mega-Rounds
According to Crunchbase, global venture funding in Q3 2026 reached $159 billion. Approximately 6,000 startups received funding. This marks a 25% decrease from the record $212 billion in Q2, but is a 53% increase from a year earlier. Over nine months, the volume of venture investments reached $679 billion, a record for this period historically.
The structure of the market has changed more significantly than its volume:
- Record Mega-Rounds. 27 companies raised $1 billion or more versus 16 in Q2 and 14 in Q1, making up about a third of the total quarterly capital.
- AI Dominance. Startups in the artificial intelligence space secured $102 billion, representing 64% of global venture funding.
- Quarter Leaders. Databricks and Safe Superintelligence each raised $5 billion, while another six companies raised at least $3 billion each.
- Early Stage Growth. Early-stage funding grew by 25% year-on-year to $40.6 billion, with seed rounds totaling $13 billion.
The concentration is also evident on the fund side. According to PitchBook and NVCA, in the first half of the year, Andreessen Horowitz, Thrive Capital, and Founders Fund accounted for 48.1% of all capital raised by US venture funds. The creation of first-time funds has declined to a minimum since 2016.
AI Infrastructure: Modal Labs Triples Valuation and Enters the Decacorn Club
The most discussed deal of the week is Modal Labs’ round. The New York provider of server infrastructure for inference closes a $750 million round led by Accel at a valuation of $15.75 billion. Just in May, the company was valued at $4.65 billion in a Series C round of $355 million. Thus, its value has more than tripled in about four months.
The logic for investors is clear:
- Modal's annual revenue exceeded $300 million as of spring;
- Demand is fueled by AI agents and programming tools that require isolated execution environments;
- The pay-as-you-go model for actual computation time is suitable for the irregular loads of inference.
This deal confirms a thesis that funds are increasingly incorporating into their investment strategies: in 2026, the fastest revaluation occurs at the ‘shovels and picks’ level for the AI-agents economy.
Autonomous Systems and Defence Technologies: Applied Intuition Valued at $30 Billion
Developer of software for autonomous transportation, Applied Intuition, has received investment proposals valuing the company at no less than $30 billion. This is double the $15 billion value recorded in the Series F round. A round exceeding $1 billion may occur in the coming months.
Key parameters for investors:
- The company works with 18 of the 20 largest global automakers;
- A valuation of $30 billion corresponds to about 36 times the projected regular revenue for 2025, estimated at $830 million;
- The growth in the multiplier is related to the entry into military and off-road autonomy, where Applied Intuition competes with Anduril and Saronic.
In the same segment, Fortastra raised $30 million in a Series A round for maneuverable spacecraft aimed at orbital security. Developer of autonomous delivery Rino.ai closed a Series C round of $100 million.
IPO Anthropic: Market Awaits Public S-1
The critical question for the public offering market is the timing of Anthropic’s IPO. The company confidentially submitted a draft S-1 form on June 1, shortly after a Series H round valued at $965 billion. According to business press, Nasdaq has been chosen as the platform, and the target window has shifted from October to November to allow investors to see Q3 results.
If marketing for the offering starts in the week of November 9, the public version of the prospectus should appear by the end of October. Market valuation benchmarks are being discussed at up to $2 trillion. This deal is significant for venture funds for three reasons:
- It will set a standard for financial disclosure across the entire AI sector;
- It will serve as a test for valuations in the later stages of the private market;
- A successful listing could open the door for exits by other major AI firms.
Asia: Manus Raises $500 Million After Deal with Meta Falls Through
AI-agent developer Manus (parent company of Butterfly Effect) has secured over $500 million in funding. This is the first round since Chinese authorities forced Meta to back out of a purchase of the startup for approximately $2 billion. The round was led by Boyu Capital and IDG Capital, with participation from Tencent, HSG, and ZhenFund. The valuation has not been disclosed, but previous reports indicated a target of around $4 billion. The company is also considering an IPO in Hong Kong.
This deal illustrates that regulatory risks related to cross-border M&A in the AI sector do not diminish local investors' appetite for agent platforms.
Europe: Deep Tech, Photonics, and Government Funds
European startups raised about $25 billion in the third quarter. This marks the region’s best result in four years and a 77% year-on-year increase. October deals reaffirm a shift towards deep technologies:
- Skeleton Technologies (Estonia) received a nine-digit strategic investment from Siemens and entered the unicorn club. The company will allocate over $200 million for expansion and R&D in Silicon Valley geared towards AI data centers.
- Salience Labs (Oxford) attracted $125 million for optical switches that connect thousands of GPUs using light.
- Rabot Energy closed a Series B round of $50 million to turn home batteries into a virtual power plant.
- British Business Bank supported Entrepreneurs First, Headline, and Evantic through a £180 million program for AI funds.
Seed and Early Rounds: A New Norm for Check Sizes
Early-stage funding is becoming increasingly capital-intensive. Among the notable recent deals:
- Hone — a seed round of $60 million from Benchmark and Index Ventures at a valuation of $285 million for autonomous AI agents responsible for business outcomes;
- Sabi — a seed round of $50 million led by Khosla Ventures for a wearable neurointerface;
- Oratomic — Series B round of $475 million for fail-safe quantum computers;
- Arena — Series B round of $200 million at a valuation of $3.1 billion from Lightspeed and Khosla Ventures, nearly double its January valuation;
- Multiply Labs — Series B round of $75 million from Lux Capital for the automation of pharmaceutical manufacturing;
- Matchpoint Therapeutics — Series B round of $150 million for drugs based on "molecular glue."
Fintech also remains active. Valon Technologies raised $150 million at a valuation of $2.3 billion, Capitolis secured $120 million in a Series E round, and Spiko raised $90 million in a Series B round.
Russia: A Cautious Market and Focus on Corporate Demand
The Russian venture market is moving against the global trend. According to the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, venture investments shrank by 48% to 4.6 billion rubles, while the number of deals decreased by 45% to 54. High yields from risk-free instruments deter capital from startups, thus funding primarily goes to B2B projects with clear revenue and corporate clients.
Meanwhile, support infrastructure is expanding:
- The Moscow Venture Fund will allocate 250 million rubles for technology companies and aims to attract around 1 billion rubles in co-investments;
- FRII launched a 300 million ruble fund for startups in the information security sector.
What to Watch for Investors Next Week
- Publication of Anthropic's S-1. Timing of the filing will be the primary indicator for the tech IPO market.
- Closing of Applied Intuition's round. Its results will show whether the market is willing to pay a premium for dual-use autonomy.
- Money20/20 USA (October 18–21). The conference is expected to see new fintech deals and partnerships.
- Oslo Innovation Week (October 19–23). A platform for announcements in Scandinavian climate and deep tech ventures.
The venture market of 2026 operates under the principle of “fewer deals — larger checks”. Capital is rapidly re-evaluating AI infrastructure, while mega-rounds and preparations for major IPOs are creating a new system of benchmarks for valuations. For venture investors and funds, discipline is taking precedence: revenue, multiples, and a realistic path to exit are more important than the volume of announced rounds.
