Key themes of the review:
- OpenAI is finalizing a round of up to $30 billion at a pre-investment valuation of $1.25 trillion;
- Anthropic is disclosing financial metrics ahead of its November IPO on Nasdaq;
- DeepSeek raised approximately $15 billion and is preparing for a listing in Shanghai;
- a new wave of “unicorns” in AI infrastructure, legal AI, and robotics;
- initial signs of investor caution regarding AI infrastructure.
OpenAI: Mega-round at a discount to self-expectations
OpenAI is nearing the completion of a round of up to $30 billion at a pre-money valuation of $1.25 trillion. Leading investors include funds from the UAE and Coatue. The company aims to secure signatures by the end of next week, although the final size of the round is still being determined. The figure of $150 billion is below the $1.4 trillion valuation that OpenAI presented to potential investors in early October. This adjustment is what the market is currently discussing most actively.
Key deal parameters:
- the round is positioned as a "bridge" to the IPO that OpenAI plans for 2027;
- in March, the company raised $122 billion at a post-investment valuation of $852 billion;
- annual revenue run-rate by the end of September approached $50 billion, with a goal of reaching $70 billion and above by the end of 2026.
The logic behind the urgency is clear: OpenAI aims to close the deal before Anthropic's financial disclosures allow investors to compare the two leaders' businesses directly.
Anthropic: Final countdown before the Nasdaq IPO
The most anticipated event of the year in the IPO market is the publication of Anthropic's S-1 registration statement. According to media reports, the public filing of the document was planned for Friday, October 23. Under SEC rules, the prospectus must be opened at least 15 calendar days prior to the start of the roadshow, making a listing possible as early as November.
What is known from the draft prospectus and messages to investors:
- revenue for the first half of 2026 stands at $16.3 billion compared to $1.1 billion the year before;
- third-quarter revenue is $16.8 billion, a 45% increase from the previous quarter;
- net loss for the half-year is $80.7 billion, of which approximately $72 billion comes from non-cash revaluations of convertible instruments;
- approximately 20% of revenue is generated by two clients, which presents a key concentration risk.
Market expectations for valuation have decreased from around $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Nonetheless, the placement could become the largest in history, surpassing SpaceX's IPO in June. Anthropic's last private valuation was $965 billion.
DeepSeek: $15 billion and a course for Shanghai
China's DeepSeek has raised approximately 100 billion yuan (around $15 billion). This is one of the largest rounds in the history of Chinese technology. During negotiations, the company twice raised its target amount: from 50 billion to 80 billion yuan, then to the final sum. Major investors include CATL and Tencent, along with participation from GigaDevice, Meituan, and Geely. In total, there are more than fifteen investors.
- pre-investment valuation is around 500 billion yuan (approximately $74 billion).
- annual revenue run-rate reached $1 billion.
- the company has hired Citic Securities and is preparing for an IPO in Shanghai in early 2027.
The deal closed just two days after the U.S. ordered the removal of DeepSeek's technologies from federal civil agency systems, highlighting the growing division of the global AI market into American and Chinese contours.
New unicorns of the week: Money flows into AI infrastructure and vertical solutions
In addition to the mega-rounds, the week saw a dense flow of significant deals in the venture segment:
- Flapping Airplanes — $1 billion in a Series A round at a $6 billion valuation, without a commercial product or revenue. The company bets on enhancing AI efficiency;
- Tenstorrent — $1.5 billion in a Series E round at a $6.2 billion valuation for AI chip development;
- Legora — $550 million in a Series E round at an $8.8 billion valuation compared to $5.6 billion in March (lead investor — Atreides Management);
- ASI — $325 million in a Series C round at a $3 billion valuation (AI for critical infrastructure);
- Arda, former OpenAI research head Bob McGrew's company — $230 million at a $1.5 billion valuation for AI in manufacturing;
- Whop — $200 million at a $5.1 billion valuation.
New entrants to the "unicorn club" with $1 billion valuations include Daytona, Blacksmith (led by Sequoia), and Town. The trend is clear: startups focused on developer infrastructure and vertical AI solutions are rapidly increasing their valuations.
Nvidia as a strategic investor: The Higgsfield case
Nvidia and TCV have invested in the AI video startup Higgsfield as part of an extension of the August Series B round by $400 million at a $5.4 billion valuation. Terms of the new deal have not been disclosed. The company's main engineering team is based in Kazakhstan, and the announcement coincided with Jensen Huang's visit to Astana. Higgsfield has surpassed 40 million users, with annual revenues estimated to range from $700 million to nearly $1 billion.
Simultaneously, Fireworks AI is reportedly in early negotiations to raise funds with a valuation of $30–40 billion, approximately double its July level of $17.5 billion. The AI inference segment remains one of the hottest areas for venture investments.
Macroeconomic context: A record year and the first cracks
Third-quarter statistics set the backdrop for evaluating all deals:
- global venture funding reached $159 billion, down 25% from the second quarter and up 53% year-on-year;
- AI startups accounted for $102 billion, or 64% of the market;
- a record of 27 rounds of $1 billion or more was recorded for the quarter;
- for nine months, $679 billion has been raised, the highest for this period in history.
However, analysts from Bank of America note a growing reluctance in the markets to finance the construction of AI infrastructure. In October, a new wave of sell-offs impacted technology stocks. For venture funds, this means that valuations in private rounds will increasingly depend on how the public market receives Anthropic's IPO.
Government Support: A Focus on Early Stages
Governments continue to bridge the gap in early-stage funding:
- Canada has allocated a separate stream of $75 million for pre-seed and seed funding for the first time in its national venture strategy;
- the EU Innovation Fund will direct €3.4 billion to 77 climate technology projects;
- U.S.-based Helion Energy has received $50 million in private capital and a federal award of $175 million.
Russia and CIS: The market is contracting, capital is concentrating
The Russian venture market is developing in opposition to the global trend. According to the Moscow Venture Fund, in the first half of 2026, investment volume dropped by 48% to 4.6 billion rubles, while the number of deals decreased by 45% to 54. About 60% of the volume came from the five largest rounds. Funds are shifting towards late seed and Series A rounds, as well as B2B projects with confirmed revenue. The Moscow Venture Fund announced it will direct 250 million rubles into tech companies, attracting co-investments of 1 billion rubles. A noteworthy case for the region is Higgsfield: the Kazakh engineering team has formed the basis for a global AI business with a valuation in the billions.
What This Means for Venture Investors
The main takeaway of the week: The AI market is entering a phase of price discipline. Key points to pay attention to in the coming weeks:
- Reaction to Anthropic's prospectus. Acceptance by the public market of a valuation around $1.5 trillion will set a benchmark for late rounds across the sector.
- Closing of OpenAI's round. The final size and composition of investors will demonstrate the depth of demand for "trillion-dollar" valuations.
- Market segmentation. Chinese AI laboratories are creating their own capital contours and exits through Chinese exchanges.
- Shift towards efficiency. The greatest premiums are being awarded to projects that reduce computational costs and vertical AI solutions with clear revenue streams.
Venture capital remains available in record amounts, but investors are increasingly scrutinizing revenue, client concentration, and computational costs. November’s IPO from Anthropic will be a critical test of this new reality for startups and funds worldwide.
