Current Startup and Venture Capital News as of 18 September 2026: OpenAI's New Round Negotiations, Mega-Rounds in AI Development, Record Bonuses for Research Teams, New Unicorns, Valuation Gap Between Europe and the US, Deals in India, and IPO Window Testing Amidst Expensive Capital

By the end of the third week of September, the global venture capital market exists in two realities. On one hand, the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday — to 3.75–4.00%, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds surpassed 5%, and 16 out of 18 committee members expect another increase by year-end. On the other hand, private equity continues to significantly overvalue AI leaders within mere months. For venture investors and funds, Friday, 18 September, poses a test: will the appetite for risk withstand the new cost of capital?

Key themes in the venture capital agenda:

• OpenAI is engaged in early negotiations for a round with a valuation exceeding $1.2 trillion.
• Factory raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion — three times its valuation from April.
• Discovery Loop led by Jeff Dean is seeking capital with a valuation of around $50 billion, despite lacking a product and revenue.
• New unicorns: Profound ($1.8 billion), CADDi ($1.2 billion), Thatch ($1 billion).
• Europe: the median valuation of AI startups is nearly eight times lower than in the US.
• IPO: Holtec's debut on Nasdaq is anticipated for Friday, while Oura prepares for a listing by the end of the month.

OpenAI and the Race for Trillion-Dollar Valuations

OpenAI has conducted preliminary negotiations for a new funding round, which could value the company at over $1.2 trillion. The initiative came from investors, and the deal parameters may still change. In March, the company closed the largest private round in history — $122 billion at a valuation of $852 billion, so reaching this new benchmark would represent an increase of about 41% in less than six months. In August, a tender offer to buy shares from employees was conducted for $7 billion at the previous valuation.

The logic is clear: IPO documents have been filed confidentially, but the listing has been pushed to 2027, and the private round provides capital without the obligations of public disclosure. Revenue on an annual basis surpassed $40 billion in July; however, 2025 closed with a net loss of $38.5 billion on revenue of about $13 billion. Competitor Anthropic, which raised $65 billion in May at a valuation of $965 billion, is reportedly preparing to list on Nasdaq this autumn, with its stock trading in the secondary market at an implied valuation of around $1.2 trillion. The first to go public will establish the multiple for the entire sector.

AI Development: Factory and the Cost of "Software Factories"

Startup Factory, which is developing AI agents called Droids to write, test, review, and deploy code, raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion. The round was supported by Khosla Ventures, Blackstone, and Sequoia Capital, with business angels including Marc Benioff, Brad Gerstner, and Nico Rosberg. The dynamics of the valuation are notable:

1. April — Series C of $150 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion;
2. July — Extension of $120 million at a valuation of $4 billion;
3. September — $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion, bringing total funding to over $400 million.

Among its clients are Nvidia, Adobe, Morgan Stanley, and Palo Alto Networks. The segment is overheated: Cognition raised over $2 billion in September at a valuation of $48 billion, while SpaceX acquired the developer Cursor for $60 billion. Venture funds will have to determine if corporate demand can sustain multiple players with the same thesis.

Team Premium: Discovery Loop and Thinking Machines

Discovery Loop, founded on August 5 by former Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean along with Sanjay Gemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, is in discussions for funding at a valuation near $50 billion. A few weeks earlier, discussions were held for $1 billion at an estimated valuation of around $10 billion. The first round was led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures, with participation from Lightspeed and Kleiner Perkins, and Alphabet is acting as a founding investor. The company aims to automate scientific experiments, but currently lacks a product and revenue. Meanwhile, Thinking Machines Lab, led by Mira Murati, is also discussing $1 billion at a valuation of $40 billion. The market is paying not for metrics, but for access to rare research teams — this is the most risky segment of the current cycle.

New Unicorns and Infrastructure Rounds of the Week

• Profound — $180 million Series D at a valuation of $1.8 billion led by Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, seven months after Series C; the platform helps brands appear in AI search answers.
• CADDi — $114 million Series D at a valuation of $1.2 billion; an AI data platform for industrial production.
• Thatch — $108 million at a valuation of $1 billion from General Catalyst and Index Ventures.
• Lyte — $165 million Series C at a valuation of $1.6 billion; perception systems for "physical AI."
• TAR — $120 million Series A at a valuation of $1 billion from Spark Capital; autonomous energy supply for data centers.
• Crusoe and Fluidstack — over $3 billion at a valuation of approximately $30 billion and $1.5 billion at a valuation of $18 billion, respectively.

The common denominator remains: venture capital flows to where there is scarcity — computing, energy, industrial data.

Europe: Volume Growth Amid an Eightfold Discount

According to PitchBook, the median pre-money valuation of AI startups in Europe is €8.3 million compared to €64.2 million in the US. AI accounted for 60.2% of the value of European venture deals in the first half of the year, up from 37.8% in 2025, with the overall volume reaching €44 billion. Recent rounds include Integral (€18 million Series A, Mosaic Ventures, and Reid Hoffman), Hackuity ($19 million Series B), and Veridion ($20 million Series A). Crane Venture Partners closed four funds totaling $484 million. For global investors, the European discount serves as both a liquidity risk and a point of entry.

Asia: India Increases Weekly Volumes

Between 7–12 September, 24 Indian startups raised approximately $413 million — a 42% increase compared to the previous week. Leading the way are space startup Pixxel ($100 million Series C from Temasek and Seraphim), restaurant startup Popo Global ($56 million from Artal Asia), and brand Nua ($50 million from Peak XV Partners). Since the beginning of the year, India has attracted $16.3 billion across 1,450 rounds: fewer deals, larger checks.

IPO and Macro: A Test for the IPO Window

On Friday, Holtec Nuclear is expected to commence trading on Nasdaq under the ticker HNUC: 50 million shares priced between $15–18, approximately $825 million at the midpoint, with a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. Demand for nuclear power is bolstered by data centers, but the sector is heterogeneous: X-energy trades below its offering price, while Standard Nuclear fell on its first day. Oura aims for a listing by the end of September with a valuation exceeding $16 billion. Market reaction to the Fed was muted for technology: the Dow lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq remained nearly unchanged. The next benchmark will be the Bank of Japan's decision.

Russia and the CIS: A Market of Single Deals

Estimates suggest that the Russian venture market shrank by approximately half in the first half of 2026, with the number of active investors dropping from 50 to 33; one methodology places the volume at just $29.3 million. In the CIS, 92% of investments were accounted for by a $131.5 million round for the Uzbek marketplace Uzum, with Uzbekistan comprising 44 out of 58 deals in the region. Capital is concentrating in mature companies with proven revenue.

What This Means for Venture Investors and Funds

1. The discount rate has increased, and so have valuations for leaders. The gap between AI elites and the rest of the market will widen; late-stage valuations outside of AI await a reassessment of multiples.
2. The speed of revaluation is a risk in itself. A threefold increase in five months necessitates verification of revenue retention, not just growth rates.
3. Bets on teams without products are justified only under a portfolio logic and with a limited share of the fund.
4. Geography provides arbitrage. The European discount and early rounds in India appear more attractive than overheated segments in the US.
5. Liquidity will define the autumn. The debuts of Holtec and Oura will indicate whether the public market is ready to accept new offerings at yields above 5%.

The venture market enters the final decade of September with record private valuations and the highest cost of capital in three years. Startups that can demonstrate not just potential but also economics will prevail.