Scheduled spring repairs at Russian refineries may coincide with a rise in seasonal diesel demand from agricultural producers, which is likely to occur later than usual this year. Market participants believe that this combination could support the quotes for summer fuel, which have already reached their highest levels since October.
The delayed start of spring agricultural works due to adverse weather conditions may coincide with the scheduled refinery repairs, potentially bolstering the diesel market, industry sources told “Kommersant.” According to a market participant, the rise in quotes may also be influenced by an increase in export parity due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Preparatory work for planned refinery repairs has led to the formation of commodity reserves, which are at high levels, exceeding last year’s figures, the Ministry of Energy reported to “Kommersant.” In preparation for the sowing campaign, oil companies have agreed on fuel supply volumes to agricultural producers, they noted. “The Ministry of Energy will continue to monitor the market conditions for motor fuel, and necessary regulatory measures will be taken based on the evolving balance of supply and demand,” the ministry added.
On March 10, the price of summer diesel at the St. Petersburg exchange rose by 1.96% to 60.53 thousand rubles per ton, based on the index of the European part of Russia. Inter-season diesel increased by 1.1% to 60.63 thousand rubles per ton. These are the highest figures for both types of fuel since mid-October 2025. From March 2 to 6, wholesale prices for summer diesel increased by 5.6%, while inter-season diesel rose by 7.7%.
The exchange prices for diesel in the first week of March transitioned to growth amid external uncertainties and expectations of seasonal demand increases, noted in the review by the National Exchange Price Agency.
Analysts highlight that market participants are starting to build up reserves in anticipation of increased consumption from the agricultural and construction sectors. However, despite the arrival of the calendar spring, actual demand remains restrained due to weather conditions complicating logistics and slowing economic activity, as indicated in the review. At the same time, total diesel sales remain relatively low at 57.9 thousand tons per day, traditionally supporting the growth of quotes, analysts state. Oil companies are reallocating volumes in favor of summer diesel — minimal sales in March are planned at 310.9 thousand tons, which is 84% higher than the February figure.
According to Andrey Diachenko, the chief analyst for oil markets, petroleum products, and macroeconomics at "Proleum," the activity of agricultural producers may be delayed by two to three weeks due to snowfall, but the stock of summer diesel has already been formed and increasing it now would be unfeasible.
Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at "Alfa-Capital," does not believe that the current sales volume is a factor for further price increases. He posits that scheduled spring repairs at the refineries, if the timelines are adhered to, will also not significantly impact the market. Moreover, he adds that last year's experience demonstrated significant reserves are in place in case of potential disruptions. Managing partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, notes that Russia produces diesel fuel with a significant surplus, thus the threat of shortages remains low, even in the event of unforeseen refinery outages.
The dynamics of exchange prices for diesel during spring will also be influenced by the situation concerning damper payments, says Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market. The higher the subsidies, he explains, the lower the incentives for oil producers to raise prices; conversely, if payments decrease, companies will offset losses through increased wholesale prices. In February, oil companies transferred 18.8 billion rubles to the budget under the damper mechanism for the first time in five years, according to materials from the Ministry of Finance. In January, payments to oil companies from the budget totaled 16.9 billion rubles.
In March, against the backdrop of rising external prices for petroleum products, the situation may shift in favor of producers, notes Sergey Tereshkin. Without adjustments to the damper formula, quotes may exceed 70 thousand rubles per ton again over the year, he adds.
In January, according to Euler analysts, the profitability of diesel fuel exports for Russian producers exceeded domestic supply for the first time at least since 2024, due in part to falling exchange prices (see “Kommersant” from February 13). According to Reuters, in January, sea exports of diesel fuel and gasoil from Russia increased by 19% from December to 4 million tons. In February, shipments decreased to 2.85 million tons due to difficult ice conditions in Baltic ports and unscheduled refinery repairs. Currently, only producers can export diesel fuel; others face a ban until July 31.
Source: Kommersant
