The armed conflict in the Middle East may lead to changes in the balance of supply and demand in the global oil and gas market, which creates the conditions for a redirection of Russian energy supplies. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting on the situation in the global oil and gas market on March 9. The meeting preceded a sharp rise in global oil and gas prices. On March 9, the price of May futures for Brent oil exceeded $115 per barrel for the first time since late June 2022, reaching $118.7 per barrel, according to ICE exchange data. By 20:45 MSK, the price corrected to $99.5 per barrel. The price of April gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands exceeded $800 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since mid-January 2023, reaching $824, before correcting to $671 per 1,000 cubic meters. For comparison, on March 6, the price of oil was $92.7 per barrel, gas was $641 per 1,000 cubic meters, and on February 27 (before the armed conflict between the US and Israel with Iran) was $72.9 per barrel and $390 per 1,000 cubic meters, respectively. The rise in oil prices accelerated following reports of reduced production in Kuwait due to overflowing storage facilities. Another driver was the forecast from Qatar's energy minister, who suggested the possibility of halting production in all Gulf countries. The increase in gas prices was further driven by a statement made by QatarEnergy on March 2 regarding the suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Qatar. The actual cessation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman in the Indian Ocean, has led to a surge in tanker freight rates in the Middle East to record levels, as reported by Vedomosti on March 4. During the meeting, Putin noted that the current high commodity prices are of a temporary nature. However, global logistics for supply will be shifting towards more profitable and promising markets due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. He emphasized that the resulting changes in the balance of supply and demand for hydrocarbons would lead to a new sustainable price reality. According to Putin, logistics problems along hydrocarbon transport routes negatively impact production chains and the entire system of international economic relations. Disruption in supplies leads to economic issues, rising inflation, and reduced industrial production. He pointed out that, in 2025, approximately one-third of the world's maritime oil exports, estimated at 14 million barrels per day, passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 80% going to countries in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). He acknowledged that a complete diversion of Middle Eastern oil supplies without using the Strait of Hormuz is impossible. Changing logistics will require significant investment in infrastructure and expansion of maritime terminals, and will be associated with high political risks. A similar situation exists in the global gas market, he indicated: LNG supplies from the Middle East have sharply declined, and it is impossible to quickly compensate for the lost volumes. The president highlighted that the market conditions for oil and gas are forming in such a way that a rapid redirection of exports to markets requiring increased supplies could allow for a stronger presence in those markets. He noted that these are countries with stable long-term demand and "reliable long-term relationships." He reminded participants that Russia is a reliable supplier of energy resources and will continue to supply oil and gas to countries that are reliable counterparts. This includes not only APR countries but also Eastern European states such as Slovakia and Hungary. He also noted that the European Union plans to stop purchasing energy resources by 2027. In this regard, the government has been tasked with evaluating the feasibility of ceasing energy resource supplies to the European market and redirecting these volumes to "more interesting directions" to establish a foothold in these markets. However, he did not rule out that Russia would supply oil and gas to Europe if it received signals from it about a willingness to move away from the political conjuncture in this area. The ongoing rise in oil and gas prices is largely associated with a reassessment of risks by insurance companies, which have effectively refused to cover force majeure events during transport through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. The price increase has been accelerated against the backdrop of attacks on oil and gas facilities, noted Maxim Shaposhnikov, an advisor to the Industrial Code fund, and Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government. Experts believe that in the coming days, the price of Brent oil will remain around $100 per barrel. In moments of volatility, prices could spike to $150 per barrel, although these would be temporary surges, notes Shaposhnikov. Yushkov agrees, stating that later, prices could fall back to $80-85 per barrel. Read more: VEDOMOSTI