Last week, Rosstat reported yet another acceleration in fuel price growth at gas stations. Over the course of a week, prices increased by 0.2%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% the previous week. At first glance, this may not seem significant, but for a low demand season, it represents a substantial rise. This growth is considerably higher than the rates observed in the same period of 2025, and in 2024 and 2023, fuel prices remained unchanged in the first half of February.
At the beginning of the year, the increase in prices was reasonably straightforward: excise taxes on fuel rose by 5.1%, adding approximately 60-80 kopecks to the price per liter. The VAT also increased from 20% to 22%. This tax is levied on every sale, and typically there are intermediaries between gas stations and oil refineries (refineries).

Since the end of last year (December 22), the price of AI-92 fuel has risen by 84 kopecks, AI-95 by 97 kopecks, AI-98 by 2 rubles and 39 kopecks, and diesel fuel (DT) by 1 ruble and 39 kopecks. This assessment is made from the end of the previous year, rather than the start of the current year, because gas stations tend to anticipate increases in fiscal burdens in advance. A sudden spike in prices after the New Year holidays could attract regulatory attention, so the increase is made gradual. In previous years, by February, price growth due to tax changes had subsided. Other factors, such as demand, exports, and refinery maintenance, played a more significant role thereafter. Currently, demand has certainly increased compared to the beginning of January, and gasoline consumption is gradually rising, but we are still far from the spring peak.
Since February 1, the government allowed the export of gasoline for refineries, which has immediately impacted exchange trading volumes, causing them to decrease. Exchange prices have risen in this context, though not significantly. They remain distant from the peaks observed last autumn and are now at June 2025 levels. Additionally, the short time since the lifting of the gasoline export ban for refineries means it is still too early for a noticeable effect on retail prices. Furthermore, should the price situation worsen, the government can quickly reimpose the export ban, which is a primary revenue source for refineries.
The market for oil products has completely transitioned into manual regulation mode, stated Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, in an interview with "Rossiyskaya Gazeta." All control levers are concentrated in the hands of the government, which responds to the situation dynamically. This approach allows for the immediate saturation of the market with motor fuel and the alteration of export and domestic supply volumes. However, it also has a significant drawback: the issues of current profitability for both oil extraction and refining have been relegated to the background.

The government can quickly reinstate a complete ban on gasoline exports
It is important to note that two additional factors are currently influencing wholesale and retail price increases: the news background and the poor economic situation of gas stations, many of which operated at a loss for a significant portion of the previous year. They now have the opportunity to recoup losses and "build up" reserves for the next challenging period.

As for the news background, it is currently quite turbulent. Oil companies are waiting for a negative dampener for January (to be paid in February). The dampener is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of fuel and the indicative domestic price set by legislation. A negative dampener is a situation where the export price of fuel is lower than the indicative prices, meaning that supplying gasoline to the domestic market is nominally considered more advantageous than exporting it. In this scenario, oil companies end up having to pay the budget the difference between the export and indicative prices.
January saw exactly this kind of situation. In 2024 and 2025, dampener payments constituted a significant portion of the revenues for major oil companies. Now, not only will they not receive these payments, but they will also have to contribute.

According to Stankevich, the concept of collecting additional funds from companies through the dampener mechanism under conditions of extremely low prices for Russian oil is economically shortsighted. This is an administrative attempt to address the issue of reducing the federal budget deficit. However, the oil industry cannot sustain losses for long, as energy security is an absolute priority.

As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, much will depend on negotiations between companies and regulators. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously directed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy to propose adjustments to the dampener and to consider the opinions of fuel producers. It is likely that a consensus solution will be found in the coming weeks.

The urgency of a resolution is clear. Fuel demand has already begun to rise, and this trend is only expected to accelerate in March and April. Therefore, there are no reasons to expect a slowdown, let alone a decrease in gasoline station prices. Tereshkin believes the price increase will fit into the "inflation minus" formula, influenced by the accelerating overall price growth in the economy.

Stankevich believes that much will depend on the choices made by the government. The decision is not easy: to lower budget expectations from the oil sector or to offer the industry a mechanism for compensating losses through increases in exchange, wholesale, and retail prices for gasoline and DT.
On the other hand, managing partner of NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, predicts that price increases will accelerate. However, this will not be solely due to the size and direction of dampener payments. The primary reasons for price increases will lie within the balance of supply and demand, he asserts.

Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, expressed a distinct viewpoint. He is confident that the government has the capacity to regulate the market through administrative measures. However, the market requires more stability; the current situation is too volatile. Consumers are unaware of fuel production levels or reserves, as this data is closed. However, exchange prices are open. As a result, any upward movement in these prices tends to create panic. A logical solution, as suggested by the expert, would be to close these exchanges as well.

Source: RG.RU