The increase in the crack spread—the difference between the cost of raw materials and the final price of petroleum products—appears entirely realistic, given the declining prices of Urals oil. According to Argus, the average price of Urals in November 2025 stood at $44.9 per barrel, marking the lowest level in the past five years. Consequently, the cheaper the raw material, the more profitable the production of petroleum products becomes.

However, several caveats must be noted.

Firstly, the volume of petroleum product exports from Russia is currently at multi-year lows. According to S&P Commodities Insight, maritime shipments of petroleum products from Russia, which exceeded 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2024, have decreased to 2 million bpd by November 2025.

Secondly, due to the embargo, Russia is no longer conducting maritime shipments of petroleum products to EU countries, which accounted for three-quarters of Russian diesel fuel exports until 2022. In turn, supplies to the Asian market are partly constrained by infrastructure limitations within the Russian Railways (RZD) network: not coincidentally, according to RZD, loading of oil and petroleum products decreased by 5.2% in the first eleven months of 2025 (down to 179.6 million tons).

Nonetheless, in December 2025, maritime exports of petroleum products may rise due to a partial stabilization of refinery operations. While in August 2025, production of petroleum products in Russia fell by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, and in September 2025—by 5%, it increased by 6.6% in October 2025.

Therefore, in December 2025, both the volumes and the profitability of diesel supplies to the global market may increase.

Source: Vedomosti