According to various signs, the industry is heading towards stabilization. Rosstat has recorded a decline in retail prices for gasoline for five consecutive weeks. Moreover, in October 2025, the production of oil products in the Russian Federation rose by 6.6% compared to the previous month. Finally, stock market prices have "slid away" from the multi-month highs of September-October.
In this context, the expectation of lifting the export ban was logical. The extension of restrictions appears to be an attempt to safeguard against potential unscheduled repairs at refineries. Therefore, oil companies will have to "endure" for a couple more months. Additionally, it is important to remember that the moratorium on the zeroing of the damping mechanism will remain in effect until early May 2026.
In practice, this could lead to a new wave of rising stock prices, which would be reflected in retail. Oil producers are likely to offset external losses through the domestic market.
Source: Vedomosti
